Thursday, November 18, 2010

Liberals gain in new projection

Though the top line numbers show only a little movement, there actually has been some large shifts in support at the regional and provincial levels. For the most part, the Liberal Party has been the beneficiary.Nationally, the Conservatives still hold the lead with 33.8%, a drop of 0.2 points from the November 2 projection. The Liberals have gained 0.2 points and now trail with 29.2%, followed by the New Democrats at 16.1% (up 0.5).

The Bloc Québécois is at 9.7% support nationally, while the Greens have dropped 0.2 points to 8.6%.

The Conservatives are now projected to win 127 seats, down two from the last projection and 15 from their current standing in the House of Commons. The Liberals have picked up three seats and are now projected to win 98, 22 more than they currently hold. The NDP has dropped one seat to 30, six fewer than they now have, while the Bloc remains steady at 53 seats.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have gained 0.3 points and lead with 37%, but the Liberals have gained 0.7 points and now trail with 36%. This has caused one seat to shift from the Conservatives over to the Liberals, who are now projected to 46 seats to the Tories' 47. The NDP would win 13, and are up 0.1 points to 16.3%. The Greens are down 1.1 points to 9%.

The Bloc has dropped 1.3 points in Quebec but has maintained the lead with 38%. The Liberals are up 0.1 points to 23.5%, while the Conservatives are up 0.5 points to 16.7%. The NDP has gained 1.3 points and is now at 13.2%, one of their high watermarks of late, while the Greens are down 1.3 points to 6.1%. This would result in 53 seats for the Bloc, 15 for the Liberals, six for the Conservatives, and one for the New Democrats.

The Conservatives have lost 1.3 points and a seat in British Columbia, and are now at 33.9%. The NDP is also down a seat and 1.4 points, and now stands at 25.5%. The Liberals have gained 1.8 points and two seats, and is now projected to have 25.2% support in the province. The Greens are down 0.2 points to 12%. The Conservatives would win 17 seats, the Liberals 10, and the New Democrats nine.

There are no seat changes in Atlantic Canada, but the Liberals have dropped 0.7 points to 38.4%. The Conservatives have gained 0.2 points and trail with 31.2%, while the NDP is up 0.6 to 22.2%. The Greens are up slightly by 0.1 points to 6.5%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives have dropped 0.1 points to 59.5%, while the Liberals are up 1.7 points to 19.4%. The NDP is down 0.9 to 9.9%, while the Greens are down 0.5 to 8.5%. The Conservatives would win 27 seats and the Liberals would win one, unchanged from November 2.

Finally, in the Prairies there have been no seat changes. The Conservatives have dropped 1.3 points to 46% there, while the Liberals are up 0.8 to 22.8%. The NDP is down 0.2 to 21.8% while the Greens are down 0.3 points to 7%.

In terms of net gains and losses in the six regions, the Greens did worst with a net loss of 3.3 points. Their drop of only 0.2 points in British Columbia is the best piece of news, while the drop of 1.1 points in Ontario is the worst.

Next would be the Conservatives, with a net loss of 1.7 points. They dropped in Alberta and the Prairies, which does not matter much, but also in British Columbia, which does. A small gain in Quebec, however, is not bad at all.

Middle-of-the-pack would be the Bloc Québécois, which lost 1.3 points in Quebec. However, they remain at 53 seats.

The New Democrats had a net loss of 0.5 points, but with gains in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada this isn't a bad projection for the NDP. But a loss of 1.4 points in British Columbia is troublesome. The party is on the verge of losing second place to the Liberals.

And it is they who come out on top in this projection, with a net gain of 4.4 points and three seats. The best performance for the party was in British Columbia, and a good showing in Ontario is also a positive sign for Michael Ignatieff.

With a combined total of 128 seats, the Liberals and New Democrats outnumber the Conservatives. That is the most significant change in this projection update. However, as the two parties are at odds on several issues, most notably Afghanistan, one wonders whether their combined totals mean anything.