Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Movement around the edges, but not much change in new Ipsos-Reid poll

It's been over a month since we've heard from Ipsos-Reid, as they were very busy during the municipal races in Ontario and elsewhere. Despite this, Ipsos-Reid has found very few changes among the top two parties, though there has been some movement for the New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois.Compared to that last poll, the Conservatives and Liberals remain steady at 35% and 29%, respectively. It is the NDP that has moved, with a gain of four points. They now stand at 16%.

The Greens are down one to 11%, while the Bloc is down three to 8%.

The Conservatives hold the lead among men, with 41% to the Liberals' 31%. It is a much closer race among women, with the Conservatives leading the Liberals 29% to 27%.

About 10% of the respondents to this prompted telephone poll were undecided.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have gained one point and lead with 38%. The Liberals are down three to 34%, while the NDP is up six to 17%. The Greens are down five to 10%. This would result in the Conservatives winning 52 seats, four more than in Ipsos-Reid's last poll. The Liberals would win 40 seats, eight fewer, while the NDP would win 14 (up five).

The Bloc has dropped nine points in Quebec but leads with 35%. The Liberals are up two to 24%, the Conservatives have gained three and now stand at 19%, and the NDP is up four to 11%. The Bloc would be projected to win 49 seats, compared to 16 Liberals, nine Conservatives, and one New Democrat. That is a loss of six seats for the Bloc from Ipsos-Reid's last poll, while the Conservatives gain three, the Liberals two, and the NDP one.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 34% (up one). The NDP is down two to 24% and the Liberals are down three to 23%. The Greens are up two to 17%. This would give 20 Conservative seats, nine Liberal seats, and seven NDP MPs.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead with 42%, followed by the Conservatives at 28% (down six). The Liberals would win 22 seats (up one), the Conservatives seven (down two), and the NDP three (up one).

In Alberta, the Conservatives have gained six points and lead with 63%, while the Liberals follow with 22%. The NDP has dropped five points to 4%. This would result in 26 Conservatives being elected and two Liberals.

Finally, in the Prairies the Conservatives are down 24 points (yes, 24 points) to 39%. The Liberals are up 15 to 29% and the NDP is up 11 to 26%, resulting in 19 Conservatives, six Liberals, and three New Democrats.

In total, the Conservatives would win 134 seats. That is a drop of two seats from Ipsos-Reid's last poll, and a drop of eight seats from the party's current standing in the House of Commons.

The Liberals would win 97 seats, down one, while the New Democrats would win 28 (up six).

This is another poll where we've seen the NDP make some gains - but this is more of a result of the severe drubbing the New Democrats were taking in September. The gap between the Liberals and Conservatives has widened a little compared to where it was a month or two ago, with the race in Ontario and British Columbia remaining close. But the Tories still appear unable to get back to their 2008 levels of support.


  1. The double edged sword of wedge politics slices into the tories! Down 24 pts in Maskatchewan-no wonder they gave in to Wall! Talk about electoral volatility! They could have lost most of their seats as Eric predicted. So the libs made up for losses in Ont and the NDP is back up in Ont and the West. No party is going to want an election until spring for sure with the unknown factor of election fever thrown in.

  2. "In British Columbia ... 20 Conservative seats, nine Liberal seats, and seven NDP MPs."

    Make that one less Liberal seat. Keith Martin has just announced that he's leaving politics when the next election is called.

    He's held the seat since 1993 and it was always more of a "Keith Martin" seat. He only won by a slim .11% (68 votes) over the CPC candidate in 2008.

  3. I think tne Liberals are in even bigger trouble as Iffy seems to be just as unpopular as Dion.

  4. Back to the stalemate we had before.

  5. Yep Volkov stalemate it is.

    The moves all seem within the MOE except possibly Quebec

    Spring election at the earliest.

  6. didn't the conservatives poll closer to 35/36 before 2008, and saw a big gain due to turnout on e-day? does your model take this type of trend into account?

  7. Bryan, my projection model (the one used for the site's projection) does take this into account, with the popular vote projection adjusted by the average error rate of polls over the last three elections.

    Projecting for individual polls, however, does not take this factor into account, as I am just translating the results of a poll into seat projections.

  8. "P",

    Iggy is actually slightly more popular than Dion, but not by a hilarious amount. Whereas Dion sat in single digits, Ignatieff sits in the low-to-mid teens.

  9. "didn't the conservatives poll closer to 35/36 before 2008, and saw a big gain due to turnout on e-day? does your model take this type of trend into account?"

    Once is not a pattern. In the 2004 and 2006 elections it was the Tories who LOST support at the last minute and it was the Liberals who did better than expected. So go figure.

  10. Volkov and Peter we have by-elections happening in less than three weeks from now.

    I think that will break any stalemate.

  11. All,

    It's polls like this one that only confirm my impulse to retire from political blogging...fortunately, that day is not too far off now.

  12. Eric,

    Is it really correct to conclude that "the Tories still appear unable to get back to their 2008 levels of support". After all, this Ipsos-Reid poll is almost identical to level of support indicated in the last Ipsos-Reid poll of the 2008 campaign (which had the tories at 34% and the Liberals at 29%). If we want to assess where the Tories are in 2010 vs-a-vis where they were in 2008, let's do an apples to apples comparison. They seem to be in the same place.

    More to the point, with a margin of error of 3.1%, the latest Ipsos-Reid poll is not inconsistent with a true level of population support of 37.6% (i.e., the Tory's actual level of support in 2008). It may well be the case that the true level of Tory support is lower than what it was in 2008, but we can't say that on the basis of this poll.

  13. I think comparing single pre-writ polls to the last election result ignores predictable writ-period trends.

  14. Shadow,

    The last ones didn't. Why would these be any different?

  15. Volkov didn't the last round of by-elections spark serious recriminations and talk of Ignatieff leaving over the holidays ??

    Prorogation sort of pushed that aside and saving Ignatieff.

  16. Shadow,

    The rumours were happening before those by-elections. Don't you remember "You're time is up?"

  17. Shadow,

    I'm not sure that the by-election results will have an immediate effect on the polling numbers. Even losing Vaughn (which will probably happen) isn't going to force Iggy out.

    That said, in the longer run a loss in Vaughn may play into the "not a leader" narrative that the Tories like to play with Liberal leaders, often with some success (at least the first time) which could cripple Iggy come the next election. Moreover, the perception of the Liberals as "losers" could hinder both their ability to raise funds and their ability to recruit "star" candidates. These effects won't show up in pre-writ polls, but obviously could be significant come the next election. Obviously, if the Grits can hold onto Vaughn or win the Winnepeg seat, the reverse would be true.

  18. Iggy is leading the Liberals in the next election. Its a done deal. If anyone wants to get rid of him before then - they better find a way to put rat poison in his food.

  19. Volkov, Carl remember all the blind quotes from the Bob Rae people, the comments by Nancy Charest, Cotler's wife, Denis Codere, Dion's wife, the Newfoundland 6, and the abortion vote fiasco ??

    All of that stuff was incredibly damaging and prevented Ignatieff's message from getting through.

    Ignatieff's summer tour and his ability to whip the gun registry vote put a stop to all that.

    Third place in Winnipeg North and a loss of Vaughan would start it all up again.

    If the Liberals do start fighting each other instead of Harper I would expect it to show up in the polls.

  20. Shadow,

    I doubt it. The grits would rationalize losses by saying that Winnipeg North is an NDP strong-hold (true) and that the Tories recruited a strong candidate in winnable riding for them in Vaughn (also true). Iggy will get his election. The infigthing will hurt him, but it likely won't show up in the polls.

    Also, I'm not sure how you can say that Iggy's summer tour or the gun vote reversed things for him. He's just as unpopular now as he was last spring or last fall.

  21. Carl I didn't claim Ignatieff's summer tour or the gun registry vote made him more popular.

    I said it quelled internal dissent.

    (That was the opinion of a variety of pollsters and media pundits which I share.)

    How can you claim infighting won't hurt Ignatieff in the polls ?

    If nobody is focusing on his home care proposal and all we're talking about is speculation over him leaving or Bob Rae undermining him or caucus not doing what its told then i'd expect it to cost him a point or two.

    During his summer tour he moved up a little.

    A positive media tone helps, a negative tone hurts.


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