Monday, November 22, 2010

Does the Tim Hortons crowd really vote Tory?

The Tim Hortons crowd is a blue collar bunch. They like their taxes low, the government out of their face and their leaders the kind you could have over for a beer. And, of course, they vote Conservative. Right?

After arguing last week that the image of the effete, Starbucks-drinking Liberal voter is more rhetoric than reality, a similar analysis of the more than 3,000 Tim Hortons locations from coast to coast to coast indicates a voter’s preference for a double-double does not make them a Tory or a Liberal, but rather just an average Canadian.

The rest of my article can be read on The Globe and Mail website. Clearly it's just a bit of political fun, so read it over a maple dip and then move on to the news of the day.

Death, taxes, and a five-point Conservative lead

While Canadian politics can be unpredictable, there is one thing that has lately been certain to remain the same: polls.

I also have an article in this week's edition of The Hill Times. It requires a subscription to read online. Check it out if you can!

1 comment:

  1. While the "whats the matter with Kansas" fallacy (the GOP is increasingly blue collar because it wins in blue collar areas) is a problem for US pundits, the Canadian election survey data supports the idea that the Tories are a blue collar party, although a common problem is that people often refuse to report their income on surveys.

    Conservative support by income group (from 2008 CES)
    0-49,999: 50%
    50,000-99,999: 42%
    over 100,000: 38%

    On the other hand, you get a different picture if you ask about subjective class.

    Conservative support by class (from 2006 World Value Survey)

    Upper Class (very few people): 23.1%
    Upper Middle Class: 30.7%
    Lower Middle Class: 32.4%
    Working class: 26.4%
    Lower Class (very few people): 25%

    One thing that strikes me as missing from all of this is how geography impacts assessments of standing and income. Among those high income voters are going to be some prosperous voters in the suburbs, and some city dwellers that don't feel all that rich relative to the cost of living.


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