Friday, November 19, 2010

Quebec Liberals narrow gap in newest Léger poll

The provincial poll released by Léger Marketing at the beginning of the week shows that the provincial Liberals have recovered, and are now within four points of the Parti Québécois.While normally I would compare these results to Léger's last poll, taken in mid-October, I'm not going to do that this time. That poll had a huge and improbable result for "Other", due to all the talk surrounding the hypothetical Force Québec party. So, rather than talk about the PQ and PLQ gaining in this poll (which they both do as a result of the reduction of the "Other" vote by seven points), I will compare this poll to Léger's September poll.

Compared to two months ago, the Parti Québécois has dropped three points to 37%, but has retained the lead. The Liberals are up one to 33%, while the Action Démocratique du Québec is at 11%, down one. Québec Solidaire is down three points to 8%, while the Greens (PVQ) are steady at 6%.

The PQ's losses came primarily among francophones and in Montreal, while the PLQ gain is due to an increase in support in and around Quebec City.

In the provincial capital, the PQ leads with 32%, down two points. The Liberals are up three to 28%, while the ADQ is down a disastrous nine points to 19%. The Quebec City region is the bread and butter of the ADQ, and for them to be dropping so much is a very dangerous thing for the party.

In Montreal, the Liberals hold steady with 36% but have gained the lead as a result of the six point decline for the PQ. They are at 31%, followed by the ADQ at 11% (up five) and the PVQ at 9% (up two). QS has dropped five points to 7%.

In the rest of Quebec, the PQ is in the lead with 44%, unchanged from two months ago. The PLQ is up one to 29% while the ADQ is down two points to 9%, tied with Québec Solidaire.

Among francophones, who make up 80% of the province's population, the PQ leads with 44%, down four points. The Liberals are second with 25%, up one, while the ADQ is also up one to 12%.

Léger also asked how people would vote if the PQ promises to hold a referendum on independence in their first mandate. The result was hardly different, but was slightly worse for the PQ: 36% to the Liberals' 35%.

These results would give the Parti Québécois a majority government with 69 seats, compared to 49 for the Liberals. The ADQ would win five seats while Québec Solidaire would win two, electing Françoise David in Gouin in addition to Amir Khadir in Mercier.

This is hardly changed from the September projection of 70 seats for the PQ, 48 for the Liberals, five for the ADQ, and two for Québec Solidaire.

Speaking of party leaders, Pauline Marois is the first choice of Quebecers to be the next Premier, with 22% (or 39% of decideds). Jean Charest gets the nod from 16% of Quebecers (or 28%), while Khadir gets 9% (16%) and Gérard Deltell of the ADQ gets 8% (or 14%). Remarkably, Khadir is preferred by twice as many Quebecers as those who would vote for his party. This indicates that Québec Solidaire has the best chance for growth.

But with only 18% satisfied with his government, Jean Charest does have the potential to flatline.


  1. Eric how do you think that whole "godfather" remark was recieved?

    I believe this poll was taken before hand but do you think it'll help the ADQ leader going forward ?

  2. I don't see how it would help. It got Deltell a few headlines but that's about it. It is the kind of remark that turns people off from politics.

  3. "It is the kind of remark that turns people off from politics."

    You would think but Bill Bennet here in BC went on a tirade against Gordon Campbell and its made him something of a folk hero.

    Taking on an unpopular premier in a headline grabbing way can often be seen as speaking truth to power or standing up for the little guy.

    I guess we'll see next month.

  4. So much for Force Quebec. Once they're out of the news, they drop back to Greenie status.

  5. OT: New ON Poll out:

  6. Hi Éric - I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on polling support for hypothetical parties. As you say here, "Force Québec" had this earthmoving support last month, but I don't see how Leger found it at all meaningful to measure a speculative fantasy party against *actual* parties with human personalities, policies, gaffes, which voters clearly know and scrutinise.

    Surely an actual Force Québec couldn't sustain support much higher than the ADQ, as there seems no daylight between them?

  7. I think the attractiveness of Force Quebec over ADQ would not be their policies, but credibility.
    The people rumoured to be involved had pretty good credentials and were not involved in the 2008-09 ADQ electoral/leadership meltdown.

  8. Until FQ exists, has a platform, and a leader to say good or stupid things, it is difficult to take anything from the polls about FQ or the last Léger one showing the huge Other number.

    If FQ was well-run and had reasonable policies, I'm sure it would do alright - there is an appetite everywhere in Canada for something different in politics. But because a lot of Canadians dislike politicians and jump at the chance to vote for a new party doesn't mean they will vote for that new party when it is run by politicians - which it will have to be, eventually.

    People from outside politics always look shiny and new, but once they enter politics they have to play that 'game', and it turns people off.

    The problem with the ADQ was that it always lacked a little bit of seriousness. They came out with some good ideas, but then other weird ideas that no established, responsible party that has a chance to form government would support. If FQ came along and was a provincial version of the Conservative Party, with a little more Quebec nationalism, I have no doubt it would be at about the same levels as the federal Conservatives.


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