Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Stability in new Nanos poll

A new poll released today by Nanos Research shows very little movement for any party since early October, though the New Democrats have made some seat gains at the expense of the Liberals.Compared to that early October poll, the Conservatives have gained 0.5 points and lead with 37.1%. The Liberals follow with 31.6%, down 0.8 points.

The New Democrats are down 0.9 points to 15.4%, while the Bloc Québécois is up a point to 10.8% and the Greens are up 0.3 points to 5.2%.

The number of undecided in this unprompted telephone poll were 19.2%.

Stephen Harper is the best option for Prime Minister for 28.4% of respondents, compared to 16.4% for Jack Layton and 15.5% for Michael Ignatieff. That represents little change from Nanos' last poll.

Harper does best in the Prairies (Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba) with 45.9%, while he does worst in Quebec with 14.1%. He has a much bigger spread than either Layton or Ignatieff, indicating how his support is regionally based.

Layton's best was in Quebec (24.2%) and his worst was in British Columbia (11.1%). Ignatieff's best result was in Atlantic Canada (18.7%), while his worst was in the Prairies (12.6%).

The Conservatives lead in Ontario with 40.9%, down one point from Nanos' last poll. The Liberals are down a mere 0.2 points to 35.5%, while the NDP is down 1.9 points to 16.2%. The Greens bring up the rear with 7.3%, up 2.9 points. This would give the Conservatives 54 seats, the Liberals 41, and the NDP 11. That is unchanged from Nanos' last poll.

In Quebec, the Bloc has gained 4.5 points and leads with 42.8%. The Liberals follow with 26.2% (down 1.5), while the Conservatives are down 0.5 points to 19.3%. The NDP is down 0.7 to 10.5%, but would still win one seat. The Bloc would win 51, two more than in early October, while the Liberals would win 16 and the Conservatives seven. That is one lost seat for each of these parties compared to the last poll.

In British Columbia, the Liberals are up 1.4 points to 33.1% and lead. The Conservatives are up one point to 31.7%, while the NDP is up 1.9 points to 26.1%. The Greens have dropped 4.3 points, and now stand at only 9.1%. The Conservatives would elect 15 MPs with this result, while the Liberals would elected 12 and the NDP nine.

The Conservatives lead in Atlantic Canada, but that is undoubtedly due to the small sample size. How else to explain the 8.3 drop for the Liberals, who trail the Conservatives 42.4% to 32.7%. Nevertheless, the Liberals would win 16 seats to the Conservatives' 12 and the NDP's four. That is a five-seat drop for the Liberals compared to the last poll, while the Tories pick up two and the NDP three.

Nanos persists in grouping Alberta with the other two Prairie provinces. The Conservatives lead there with 55.2%, followed by the Liberals at 30.4%.

In total, the Conservatives would win 137 seats, unchanged from Nanos' last poll. The Liberals would win 92, a loss of six seats, while the NDP would win 28 for a gain of four. The Bloc picks up two.

Of course, that is still a net gain for the Liberals, who currently hold 76 seats in the House of Commons. But a loss of only five seats for the Tories and a maintenance of the 2008 level of popular support would likely mean another two or three years of Conservative governance.

28 comments:

  1. Interesting to note that the only province with a Liberal lead is BC. Nanos also had the Liberals ahead in BC in their last opinion poll.

    Of course, as with all of these sub-samples from all pollsters, it's just a ~120 sample size for BC and just statistical noise. Anything under a 300 sample size is not worth the paper it's written on.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Interesting.

    Harper has a 1-2 by-election punch aimed at Ignatieff.

    Assuming the Liberals stumble in both rounds there will be a big temptation to go to the polls with a spring budget.

    (Yes, even with these numbers. CPC has a better ground game, good candidates, and some juicy targets because of retirements/long gun issue.)


    I'd rather they hold off and use their position to force through a tough budget. Make some progress on lowering the deficit before going to the people.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Harper hasn't been able to control his Drunken Liberal spending spree since he got into office so I don't see how much is going to change next budget. Ahh to have a good responsible surplus generating Finance Minister like Paul Martin.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Here's a tough challenge for you Eric if you're willing to except it. I know you are more into the federal predicitions but there will be a by-election December 2 in Newfoundland and Labrador to replace PC Minister Dianne Whalen who died last month, she won 72% of the vote last election. I'm wondering if you could predict the outcome of the by-election?

    ReplyDelete
  5. RTL,

    I've been doing more and more with provincial stuff lately, and I find it just as fascinating.

    I'll take a look at it and give it a shot.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Being from the Rock, can you give me a little inside intel (here or by email)?

    ReplyDelete
  7. I suspect Red Tory was kidding. Danny Williams isn't going to lose a seat in a byelection any time soon.

    ReplyDelete
  8. No doubt, but I think he means more in terms of %.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Or he might have been joking.

    ReplyDelete
  10. I wonder if Nik groups the prairies together because he doesn't want a regional sample under 100 people. He's working with only 164 responses from the prairies in this one (162 last time). If it's distributed with population, that's like 70-75 people in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. That's an 11-12% margin of error. Would that be useful?

    ReplyDelete
  11. I took the who would make the best PM questions and results from the last Nanos poll and arbitrarily giving the BLOC 10% and the Green 5% ( as those who would say that Ducceppe and May would make the best PM as cult members are likely to) and normalized the rest to the remaining 85%.

    I assigned this #1 election issue a weight of 33% and came up with the following results:

    Nanos

    Party - % support - % adjusted for leadership

    CPC - 37.1 - 38.1
    Lib - 31.6 - 28.3
    NDP - 14.4 - 18.0
    BlQ - 10.8 - 10.5
    Grn - 5.2 - 5.1

    It seems to me that Mr. Nanos has given us enough information to predict a Harper majority.

    Ipso-Reid

    CPC - 35.0 - 35.5
    Lib - 29.0 - 26.1
    NDP - 16.0 - 20.0
    BlQ - 11.0 - 10.7
    Grn - 8.0 - 7.0

    IR has the Liberals down .1 from last election and the CPC off 2.1 with the big winners being the Jack Layton NDP up 1.8

    My projections go a long way in showing why the Liberals continue to support the Government to avoid the election.... and why the NDP are good to go.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Ira, samples of that size are good enough for Angus-Reid and Ipsos-Reid, and anyone else who surveys 1,000 Canadians. They reported on the Atlantic Canada numbers, and that was from a sample size of 80 people. Probably not useful by itself, but when I combine samples of 80 people from five different pollsters, we get some useful numbers.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Morakon you don't remember Flaherty paying down the debt by 13.2 billion in his first year, 14.2 billion in his second, and 9.6 billion in his third ??

    Liberals told him to spend that money on childcare/natives instead of paying down the debt.

    I'll stick with Flaherty thanks!

    BTW - Economic conditions are outside the control of the finance minister.

    I bet Jim would have loved to have governed through a tech boom and then an oil boom !

    ReplyDelete
  14. I realize that the global recession is obviously a factor in the $50+billion dollar defecit that Harper, flaherty and crew have turned the chretien, Martin $10billion surpluses into and obviously dropping the gst to 5 then screwing bcers and ontarians with the hst was a huge mistake for the federal coffers solubility... but anyone who thinks this wasteful Harper gov't and their reckless attempt to purchase votes through the cheeziest style of retail/wedge politics is good for the nations finances is either stupid or NOT paying attention..

    ReplyDelete
  15. B.C.,

    I'm not sure why your projections would suggest that the Liberals would be supporting the government. In both of your stories the Liberals are either doing as well, or better, than they did last time out and the Tories are doing as well, or worse. At best, on you account, nothing would change, while at worst, the Tories would have a significantly slimmer minority. It's hard to tell how votes split, but I wouldn't be predicting a Tory majority on those numbers.

    ReplyDelete
  16. when we were running huge trade surpluses in the 90's the canadian dollar was at historic lows and our exporters were all doing well selling to a booming American economy... those low cdn dollar levels will not be seen again soon - maybe never again.. the cut to the g.s.t. was the most damaging move and currently reckless spending is also a factor in the record defecits of 2009/2010

    ReplyDelete
  17. Jim have big surpluses when he became Finance Minister and blew it. He was heading to deficit before the recession hit. You can't spend like a mad man and cut taxes too. Sorry Shadow Jim's done a bad job. The deficit's all his. Sure the size has to do with the recession but he would have spent his way into it. Conservatives have this unearned rep of being good with money for some reason.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Morakon you seem to think a large surplus is a good thing.

    Its not. It means you're damaging the economy, killing jobs, and hurting working families with taxes that are too high.

    Flaherty was intentionally moving towards a zero surplus (with a small fiscal cushion).

    To continue the trend lines on the fiscal monitor until they cross is to ignore what was an intentional policy choice at finance.


    Kevin Michael oil is priced in US dollars so its a wash in terms of the effect on the fiscal picture.

    The GST cuts created jobs and are the reason unemployment is a couple points lower in Canada than the US.

    Its certainly damaging on the books but its highly stimulative.

    You're not really suggesting we need more people to lose their jobs at a time like this are you ??

    ReplyDelete
  19. The GST cut ( and the Income Tax raise to help fund it ) was a terrible tax cut. It would have been much better for Canadians to have an Income Tax cut instead. Ian Brodie even admits the only reason they did it was it was a vote getter. Bad economic policy, good political policy. Dare I say Harper's only in it for himself. Kinda like the Potash deal he screwed up.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Morakon you are quite right to point out that the Liberals were calling for income tax cuts.

    Tax cuts + childcare + Kelowna accord = bigger deficit than we have now.

    That's why I always chuckle when I hear the Liberals try to complain about the deficit they DEMANDED in the fall of 2008.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Shadow all three of those would have been better than the GST cut. And the Liberals still would have had a surplus. I don't know when Harpers gang is against Natives having clean drinking water and maybe a place that's not mold infested for their children to sleep. I guess instead he would rather have tons more public servants.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Remind me again Morakon.

    Is the GST the worst kind of tax, a consumption tax that disproportionally impacts the poor, and we should never ever implement it or face certain doom (and to be noted all the opposition parties ran on repealing it in '93)


    Or is it the most friendliest of taxes, and doing anything else but cutting it is better.... since a cut in the GST doesn't help anyone but the rich who buy more and not all the poor and middle income people.

    I keep forgetting....



    -------
    "I don't know when Harpers gang is against Natives having clean drinking water and maybe a place that's not mold infested for their children to sleep."

    Yeah yeah... more money to upkeep, to build, to keep culture, more more more... because we are not providing enough. And then when the potash stuff happens the people who can't support themselves on the handouts to everyone and the handouts to their minority group..... are somehow able to source 25 Billion in funds to purchase potash shares (that's just the FSIN looking) and keep BHP out of Saskatchewan. But they don't have any access to money to help build water plants, shelters, etc.

    Kelowa was just one more vote buying exercise by Martin in a series to keep him in power. Just like the Tax cuts he didn't put into law, just like the Atlantic accords, Childcare (campaigned on for 13 years and signed on the eve of an election campaign no less).

    Can you really pis on Harper for doing the same as the liberals? And then still hold your head up high and go vote for said liberals?



    "but anyone who thinks this wasteful Harper gov't and their reckless attempt to purchase votes through the cheeziest style of retail/wedge politics is good for the nations finances is either stupid or NOT paying attention.."

    Go back 6 years and you can replace Harper either Martin or Chretien.... And you want to replace him with their successor?

    Indeed.

    The current tories have learned well from the liberals how to play politics. When they follow the same rules and play the game the same. They do well. When they don't... They get beaten. I look forward to years more of Harper government while they utilize the Liberal style wedge politics and vote buying to their best advantage.

    ReplyDelete
  23. hmmm not to mention "Harmonization" of the GST with provincial taxes being a first term Chretien policy (in contrast with the election platform or abolishing it).

    Why is it suddenly so bad now to harmonize it? to reduce it?

    ReplyDelete
  24. Morakon you mean more civil servants to clear the huge immigration backlog and the huge influx of people wanting passports ahead of the Americans bringing in border restrictions ?

    I remember the Liberals loudly demanding they fix those problems ASAP. And they did. Which requires people and $$$.

    See you can't have it both ways.

    You can't keep saying spend, spend, spend and then pretend you would have done better on the debt/deficit.

    OH I know, I know, I know Martin cleared the deficit in the 90's.

    Except even then go back and read Preston Manning's proposals.

    He would have done it faster, deeper, and better.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Barcs: See one of the problems with Harper is he took the worst of what he saw about the Liberals. That which he complained most loudly about and took it to the more extreme. I hated it when the Liberals did it and it's even worse now under Harper. I voted for Harper to get the Liberals out hoping he would clean things up. Once he got in power he lost all interest in Accountability, Fiscal Responsibility, Transparence, Respect for our troops, Decentralising PMO power etc etc. He's got to go and that means time to try the Liberals again.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Shadow: I have nothing but respect for Preston Mannings vision of deficit reduction. I'm pretty sure you would agree that if there was no Reform Party the Liberals would never have done such a good job at eliminating the deficit. To bad most of the great things the Reform stood for have been betrayed by Harper. Canadian Politics would be better off if Reform was still around.

    ReplyDelete
  27. "Canadian Politics would be better off if Reform was still around."

    Or if Harper had a majority.


    BTW - The current crop of Liberals is nothing like the ones in the 90's.

    All the right of centre ones have been defeated, what remains is a left wing rump of a party.

    The idea they would do a better job on the deficit is laughable.

    ReplyDelete

COMMENT MODERATION POLICY - Please be respectful when commenting. If choosing to remain anonymous, please sign your comment with some sort of pseudonym to avoid confusion. Please do not use any derogatory terms for fellow commenters, parties, or politicians. Inflammatory and overly partisan comments will not be posted. PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION ON TOPIC.