Wednesday, October 14, 2009

As Days Go By...

Left, you'll find the projection as it stood on September 10. I thought it would be a good time to take a look at how the political goings-on in Ottawa have changed the projection since then.

The Conservatives have picked up ten seats in that time, moving from 125 to 135. The Liberals have lost ten seats in the span of a month, dropping to 100 from 110. Both the NDP and the Bloc have remained unchanged.

In terms of the national vote, the Conservatives have picked up 1.6 points, moving from 33.2% to 34.8%. The Liberals have lost 1.4 points, going from 32.1% to 30.7%. While the gap on September 10 was a mere 1.1 points, it is now 4.1 points.

The other parties haven't changed much, but the NDP has lost 0.1 points, the Bloc has gained 0.1 points, and the Greens have lost 0.2 points.

In the three battleground provinces of British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec, the Conservatives have made some gains.

From 36.8% and 20 seats in BC, the Conservatives are now at 37.8% and 21 seats. The Liberals have gone from 26.6% and 11 seats to 25.5% and 10 seats. The NDP has kept itself steady in the province, however, only moving from 24.6% to 24.7% and keeping the projected five seats.

The most significant change has come in Ontario, where the Conservatives went from 35.7% and 43 seats to 38.1% and 49 seats. The Liberals have dropped from 38.8% to 36.6% and have lost six seats to stand at 46. Here, again, the NDP has remained steady, going from 15.0% to 15.1% and maintaining 11 seats.

In Quebec, the Bloc's fortunes have improved. From 36.8% they have gone to 37.1% but remain at 49 seats. The Liberals have dropped from 30.0% to 28.8% and have lost one seat in the process. The Conservatives have seen a significant gain from 16.1% to 17.0% and now stand at seven seats, one better than a month ago. The NDP has lost a little ground, going from 10.9% to 10.7%, but are still projected to keep their seat in Outremont.

Elsewhere, the Conservatives have gained a seat each in Alberta and the North, in both cases coming from the Liberals.

So the Conservatives definitely have the winds in their sails, and have taken full advantage of the situation in September. The Liberals are sliding, and have not managed to take the NDP down with them. In fact, the NDP seems to be stuck, perhaps indicating that a lot, if not virtually all, of the Conservative gains have come from the Liberals. They're up where they need to be, in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec.

Whether this trend will continue through the month of October remains to be seen. Could it have been simply a momentary negative reaction against the Liberal attempt to bring down the government? Is Stephen Harper that good of pianist? Stay tuned.