Wednesday, October 14, 2009

As Days Go By...

Left, you'll find the projection as it stood on September 10. I thought it would be a good time to take a look at how the political goings-on in Ottawa have changed the projection since then.

The Conservatives have picked up ten seats in that time, moving from 125 to 135. The Liberals have lost ten seats in the span of a month, dropping to 100 from 110. Both the NDP and the Bloc have remained unchanged.

In terms of the national vote, the Conservatives have picked up 1.6 points, moving from 33.2% to 34.8%. The Liberals have lost 1.4 points, going from 32.1% to 30.7%. While the gap on September 10 was a mere 1.1 points, it is now 4.1 points.

The other parties haven't changed much, but the NDP has lost 0.1 points, the Bloc has gained 0.1 points, and the Greens have lost 0.2 points.

In the three battleground provinces of British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec, the Conservatives have made some gains.

From 36.8% and 20 seats in BC, the Conservatives are now at 37.8% and 21 seats. The Liberals have gone from 26.6% and 11 seats to 25.5% and 10 seats. The NDP has kept itself steady in the province, however, only moving from 24.6% to 24.7% and keeping the projected five seats.

The most significant change has come in Ontario, where the Conservatives went from 35.7% and 43 seats to 38.1% and 49 seats. The Liberals have dropped from 38.8% to 36.6% and have lost six seats to stand at 46. Here, again, the NDP has remained steady, going from 15.0% to 15.1% and maintaining 11 seats.

In Quebec, the Bloc's fortunes have improved. From 36.8% they have gone to 37.1% but remain at 49 seats. The Liberals have dropped from 30.0% to 28.8% and have lost one seat in the process. The Conservatives have seen a significant gain from 16.1% to 17.0% and now stand at seven seats, one better than a month ago. The NDP has lost a little ground, going from 10.9% to 10.7%, but are still projected to keep their seat in Outremont.

Elsewhere, the Conservatives have gained a seat each in Alberta and the North, in both cases coming from the Liberals.

So the Conservatives definitely have the winds in their sails, and have taken full advantage of the situation in September. The Liberals are sliding, and have not managed to take the NDP down with them. In fact, the NDP seems to be stuck, perhaps indicating that a lot, if not virtually all, of the Conservative gains have come from the Liberals. They're up where they need to be, in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec.

Whether this trend will continue through the month of October remains to be seen. Could it have been simply a momentary negative reaction against the Liberal attempt to bring down the government? Is Stephen Harper that good of pianist? Stay tuned.


  1. "Elsewhere, the Conservatives have gained a seat each in Alberta and the North, in both cases coming from the Liberals."

    Are you saying that the Conservatives are projected to pick up a seat from the Liberals in Alberta compared to an earlier projection or compared to the last election? In either case, I find it very hard to believe that the Liberals have a seat in play in this province. What about the NDP in Edmonton?

  2. Anon,

    its compared to last month's projection. The Liberals don't have an MP from Alberta.

  3. Alberta used to elect Liberals, and no one expected the NDP to win a seat.

  4. When did AB elect liberals, other than landslide Annie, and David Gilgore, who could have won that riding as a Rhino.
    The only other liberals I can recall are those MPs who crossed the floor, Bud Olson, for one.
    And don't confuse the problems of steady eddie with loss of support for conservatives federallly.

  5. --- "When did AB elect liberals, other than landslide Annie, and David Gilgore"

    You answer your own question.

  6. In the 1993 election, the Liberals elected 4 MPs from Edmonton

  7. Hi Earl:

    Alberta has elected some Liberals over the years. Landslide Annie was one. Kilgor the other. Is it really reasonable to expect the NDP to hold their Edmonton seat and for the Liberals to elect even one member when Iggy is promising to go green and given the current numbers. The right is surging provincially in AB. I think Goodale would lose right now in SK. The green stuff just doesn't sell in an oil and gas environment. The NDP elect in Edmonton was result of a weak MP who was never in the riding. He was punished. All that being said the road to victory for either the CPC or LPC is ON. A ten to 14 point lead in ON means IMO a CPC majority. A four point lead lead puts them with Ipsos results puts the CPC at 150 IMO. So we're not far apart on the latest poll. The CPC will now resurrect the carbon tax bogeyman at a time when it will be less popular than last time. People realize it (CT) will cost jobs. Were I Harper I'd be very tempted to find a way other than the HST to bring about my defeat now. The winning conditions have never been greater.

  8. Iggy is in Regina today.... The polls must be even worse than we are seeing if he has to shore up the vote in Goodale's riding.

  9. Earl, Goodale's seat has nothing to do with oil and gas. Regina-Wascana sits inside the seat of the provincial government. The environment is far closer to Ottawa unions and bureaucracy than it is to the rural prairies.

  10. I don't read anything into Iggy being in Regina. Party leaders routinely make appearances in every province. An appearance in Regina today is irrelevant to whether or not Goodale can win in an election in 2010. If Goodale could win by a wide margin with a millstone like Dion around his neck, he can win with anyone.

  11. Hi Barcs:

    I know where Goodales riding is. Iggy isn't in Regina trying to win news seats is he. SK is different than Ottawa.

  12. Harper gives the odd speech in Montreal - doesn't mean that he's delusional enough to think he can win any seats there.

  13. really? are you delusional to believe that the NDP could win one in Montreal AND Edmonton? Wait, they did.

    things that make you go hmmmm...

  14. Gotta agree with Barcs,

    I don't buy into this notion that there are areas which will NEVER elect a Conservative.

    With the right candidate and the right conditions its probably possible for any of the major parties to elect someone anywhere. Rare and unlikely sure but not impossible.

  15. The only point I'm trying to make is that I don't see any connection between Iggy giving a speech in Regina and Goodale's re-election prospects. Quite frankly, if i were Goodale I would want to keep Iggy as far away from Regina as possible. Every time he shows up in Regina he probably loses Goodale votes.

  16. BC Voice of Reason14 October, 2009 15:11

    Ignatieff in Saskatchewan? Fund raising?

    We haven't heard how well prepared and financed and over loaded with new memberships the Liberals are for say a month or so.

    They need to raise some cash to pay for the $2M that got flushed on the sherwood forest ads.

  17. Have they peaked? That is the question.


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