Thursday, October 15, 2009

New EKOS Poll: 15.2-pt Conservative Lead

Incredible, isn't it? A 15-point lead!

EKOS has its new poll this morning, taken between October 7 and October 13 (but not during the Thanksgiving weekend) and involving 2,729 Canadians. The national result:

Conservatives - 40.7%
Liberals - 25.5%
New Democrats - 14.3%
Greens - 10.5%
Bloc Quebecois - 9.1%

These numbers are almost unbelievable to me, but not because I doubt the pollster's results. I don't. I just don't understand! There's nothing really going on right now. There's no Liberal scandal, there's been no Conservative governing coup. But the Liberals are more unpopular now than during the sponsorship scandal! And while Michael Ignatieff can certainly be seen to be unlikeable, he really hasn't done much to make people dislike him. It is difficult to hate someone who hasn't really done or said all that much. It really is puzzling - the Conservatives have more support than the Liberals and NDP, combined.

The regional results are excellent for Stephen Harper. In British Columbia, he has 39.1% support, followed by the Liberals at 23.2% (still relatively okay) and the NDP at 20.3%. The Greens have gained some ground and stand at 17.4%. With the Tories up and the NDP down, Dawn Black's vacated NDP seat could fall into Conservative hands.

Alberta is very blue, with 66.7% support for the Conservatives. The Liberals are at 13.9% and the NDP is at 12.2%.

The Prairies are also solidly Conservative, at 55.9%. The Liberals follow with 20.0% and the NDP is in third with 19.0%.

The Conservatives now have a 13-point lead over the Liberals in Ontario, at 44.1% to 31.0%. The NDP is at 14.2%.

In Quebec, the Bloc still leads with 36.1%. The Liberals are still struggling with 22.6%, while the Conservatives are riding high at 22.5%. The NDP has faltered and is at 8.4%, now behind the Greens who are at 10.4%.

Finally, in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are still behind. The Tories are at 39.1%, the Liberals are at 31.0%, and the NDP is at 23.6%.

These results really can't be reconciled with the recent Ipsos-Reid poll. One of them is wrong, or the reality is somewhere in between.

The Conservatives lead in every demographic, as well as in Vancouver, Calgary, and Ottawa. The Liberals do still lead in Toronto, with 40.8% to the Conservative 38.9%. The Bloc has a big lead in Montreal, with 37.9% to the Liberal 26.0%. With these sorts of numbers, the Bloc could actually make gains on the island.

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 160
Liberals - 76
Bloc Quebecois - 50
New Democrats - 22

So this is the first poll we've seen that gives the Tories a comfortable majority. The Liberals actually win one seat fewer than they did in 2008, while the NDP drops 15 from the election. The Bloc gains one seat, but with the Conservatives in a majority the Bloc actually loses a lot of influence. At this point, the only way we'll see an election is if the Prime Minister decides to have one. The opposition is going to have to start playing nice, simply to remove any pretext for the calling of an election.

The projection will be updated either today or tomorrow.

51 comments:

  1. Maybe voters are just tired of all the games being played by the liberals and media with their attempt at faux scandals. Every time some so called scandal comes up, it reminds us of the real scandals and theft by the liberals during their time in office. Perhaps the Codere fiasco is having an effect.
    And maybe we are tired of minority governments and the only alternative is a strong conservative majority. We will not give the opposition a chance to form their coalition.

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  2. Something did go on.

    Thanksgiving.

    People who see each other less often and even less often in their large group got together.

    They may not talk about the mutinae of policy and such,. but I bet you there was (atleast in some houses) discussions revolving around impressions of the men.

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  3. Ummm, faux scandals? I'm pretty sure branding everything with the Conservative logo and Stephen Harper when Canadian tax payers paid for the stimulus is a bit of a scandal. I'm also pretty sure that when Conservatives give out huge amounts of money to their ridings compared to opposition ridings it's a scandal too. Just cause it's not as large as the sponsorship scandal does not make it less important. If anything the media are the Conservatives best friends, look how much coverage stupid piano playing got and look how much coverage Ignatieff got in Vancouver and Regina releasing elements to a platform the media have been bugging him about forever. Voters may be tired of the games and want a stable majority, but hopefully they aren't swayed by all the media b.s. and their "we need a majority" sentiments because voting once a year or two is just so darn hard!

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  4. Barcs,

    There were those types of discussions in my Thanksgiving experience. What's funny is that a lot of the comments I heard were more to do with Ignatieff in a negative light than Harper in a positive light. I wonder if that is the case nationally.

    Robber88,

    -- "If anything the media are the Conservatives best friends"

    I say it every time someone brings up the "nasty liberal media": virtually every newspaper in the country endorsed the Conservatives in both the 2006 and 2008 elections.

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  5. I don't buy any Thanksgiving theory. This poll is essentially identical to the one released one week ago which was fielded entirely before Thanksgiving.

    I have two theories: one is that partly as a result of being forced to govern in minority situations, the Tories have at least given the appearance of moving to the centre. Its hard to depict them as lunatic fringe rightists when they are running up the deficit and dispensing "stimulus" funds across the country and when no "hot button" social issues are being touched. A year ago you could raise the spectre of Bush and of them being too pro-American - but now being pro-US means being pro-Obama and no one minds that. On top of that, while the Liberals are undoubtedly grateful to the NDP for not helping them to force an election, the fact that the NDP is praising the billion extra dollars for the unemployed also makes the Tories look good. Right now none of the opposition parties seems to be saying that they would do things any differently (that will change we can be sure) - the Liberals can only try to claim credit for all the stimulus spending and the NDP can try to claim credit for the EI changes.

    Of course it goes without saying that if the Tories got a majority, they wouldn't hesitate to toss this "Mr. Nice Guy" veneer into the garbage and go on a rightwing reign of terror - but its hard to make that case after years of the Tories being in power and people gradually getting used to the idea of them being there. Its kind of like Parizeau's lobster pot metaphor!

    The other thing is that I think that there is a vast amount of undecision out there. You see it in high DK/NA, low response rates to polls and suspiciously high green numbers - which make no sense given that the environment has vanished as an issue and that party has not had ANY publicity in months - you have to wonder what makes someone who doesn't care about the environment and couldn't tell you a single solitary thing about the Green party - then push the "green button" in an Ekos poll? My suspicion is that non-Tory vote is in a big state of flux right now. A huge chunk that is usually parked with the Liberals and to a lesser extent the NDP is now parked in "undecided" or "green". The question will be where those votes end up after a long election campaign.

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  6. Mark McLaughlin15 October, 2009 10:29

    You ask why this is happening? Here's my theory, and it has nothing to do with the main actors. Take away Harper, Iggy and their well known faults. Neither are well liked. Let's say they cancel each other out.

    I think what we are seeing is a collective drift towards stability, regardless of the party.
    You have people wanting a majority, and don't care who it belongs to. Right now, the Cons are the best bet, so support is solidifying around them.

    It may be a movement more powerful than flavouroftheweek-gate or an Iggy speech, or specific stimulus measures.

    Pundits will say that Iggy is a failure and Harper is a brilliant idiological meanie, but it could be that the overall tides are pulling them both along despite themselves. Like seahorses in a tsunami.

    The next election's outcome might just be inevitable, to Iggy's detriment. Harper is going to have a tricky time taking advantage of all this though. He's not going to want his best shot at majority to slip away. He's going to use the next couple of months to make Iggy look even worse, and there's not much he can do about it.

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  7. Barcs,

    The Thanksgiving bump? Wasn't there something similiar in a previous election, maybe it was over Christmas. Everyone was talking about a percieved holiday bump for the Conservatives back then.

    I'm not sure I get the arguement though. Is it older people influencing younger people ?

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  8. Eric,

    I wonder if the vast majority of newspapers don't just jump on the winning bandwagon and go with whoever is the most popular. Could you imagine endorsing the Liberals after adscam or Dion? I think they want to sell newspapers, so if they do endorse, its going to be somebody who's popular in the area.

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  9. Why do people want a majority, no matter who has it?

    Minorities are better governments.

    We get no legislation that is on the "extremes", so that everything is somewhere in the centre. A good compromise makes no one happy, but it makes no one angry either.

    We have committees that actually change legislation to make it better, rather than rubber-stamp it according to the PMO's wishes.

    We have motions and legislation put forward by opposition MPs that we've elected that actually has a chance of passing.

    The government is held accountable because it can fall at any time, rather than doing whatever it likes in its first two years and then hoping people forget by election time two years later.

    Too many Canadians simply hate politicians and politics and so want to never be bothered by it.

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  10. Sorry Robber88,

    but I just can't get too worked up about a novelty cheque. Who knew there was legislation in place to govern the distribution of over-sized, non-currency, novelty cheques.

    And the early money is going to Conservatives ridings because Conservative members helped with the budget. They identified local projects that should be a priority.

    Everyone else had the chance. They either refused to help craft the budget or voted against it without reading it.

    If money isn't going to non-Conservative ridings that's because their local MPs are failing them.

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  11. --- "I wonder if the vast majority of newspapers don't just jump on the winning bandwagon and go with whoever is the most popular. Could you imagine endorsing the Liberals after adscam or Dion? I think they want to sell newspapers, so if they do endorse, its going to be somebody who's popular in the area."

    No doubt, but that still destroys the idea of a 'liberal media'.

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  12. Eric,

    doesn't mean they can't be critical for the rest of the year.

    From a pure money making perspective liberal biased newspapers WANT the Conservatives to win so they have a foil.

    Look at how well Fox News is doing in the US because they can attack Obama 24/7.

    Its the more conservative leaning newspapers that are put in the uncomfortable position of defending mini-scandals or attacking the opposition (which looks bad, beating up on a guy when he's down).

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  13. Mark McLaughlin15 October, 2009 10:52

    Eric, I doubt most people share your positive impression of minority governments. We all thought we'd like them, but then people also thought they'd like the idea of another Terminator movie.

    Getting legislation that makes nobody happy is worse than bills that satisfy at least someone. Paul Martin had this problem of trying to be everything to everyone and it didn't work.

    Committees turn into 3-ring circuses, as we've seen the past year.

    I don't think we've actually had meaningful bills from opposition MPs that have passed.

    The risk of government falling has only created a poisonous atmosphere of constant campaigning. People want a break from it all.

    The fact that 40 some odd years ago or whatever we got universal healthcare out of a minority doesn't make them a preferred outcome, esp with the Bloc around now.

    A responsable leader knows that unpopular decisions are needed for long term prosperity, but if everyone is fixated on the short game, cheap populism and cheap shots are all we get.

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  14. Eric wrote:

    " No doubt, but that still destroys the idea of a 'liberal media'. "

    I don't agree with that assessment at all.

    Newspaper endorsements do not tell even close to the full story (especially when your sample size is over only 2 elections).

    Most newspapers in this country are chock-a-block with leftist columnists and the news itself is frequently covered with a leftist bias.

    There are certainly exceptions, such as the National Post and the Calgary Herald, but most mainstream media outlets in this country are decidedly Liberal-left (albeit usually not as uniformly so as the CBC and the Toronto Star).

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  15. Mark,

    --- "A responsable leader knows that unpopular decisions are needed for long term prosperity, but if everyone is fixated on the short game, cheap populism and cheap shots are all we get."

    I agree, but if minority governments continue the parties and the politicians will begin to change their tune. We can hope for better.

    I've said it before and I'll say it again. René Lévesque called majority governments a dictatorship of the cabinet, and he's right. Our system is designed that way, and I don't think it is the best option.

    Martin,

    --- "Most newspapers in this country are chock-a-block with leftist columnists and the news itself is frequently covered with a leftist bias."

    I don't agree with that assessment at all. In many of the newspapers, I see plenty of right-wing columnists as well as left-wing columnists.

    With newspapers, we know what we're getting. The National Post is more right-wing and the Toronto Star is more left-wing. And right-wing people tend to read the Post while left-wing people tend to read the Star. So there is no bias that is influencing readers, people know what they're getting and tend to read what conforms to their world view.

    But to saw the media has a leftist-bias is simply a tired old canard used as an excuse.

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  16. ...and way more people watch CTV and Global news than watch the CBC and they are both very rightwing. What conclusions are we supposed to draw from how we spent years having all political affairs in Ottawa interpreted for us by Mike Duffy who was then rewarded by being made a Tory senator - implying that all his reportage all those years was pro-Tory and he got rewarded for it.

    People can yammer about the Toronto Star, but its only available in Toronto. If you live in Vancouver, you have the following media outlets: Vancouver Sun (Canwest/Asper controlled and ultra rightwing), Vancouver Province (identical to the Sun but aimed at people with lower literacy skills), Global News (more rightwing spin) - about the only "leftwing media" in Vancouver are a few alternative weekly papers like the Georgia Straight that are only read by people in the inner city.

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  17. BC Voice of Reason15 October, 2009 11:25

    Majority government make just so much sense.

    Take BC for instance. Bringing in the HST apparently is a job maker, price lower and makes the overall economy better.
    On top of that BC is getting Billions of $ of "fiscal imbalance" money that usually is earmarked for Quebec.

    There is a huge backlash because the first thing people see is that there is a 7% extra charge on a relatively small group of goods and services.

    Right now if an election were to be held the NDP would win handily. Ironic that they would raise a lot more taxes and spend a lot more on their constituent CUPE, teachers and nurses unions.

    Right now the Liberals can weather the storm that might last for 2 years and have 2 years to claim credit for their planning and/or bribe their way back into the voters good graces.

    With the minority governments we have seen no strategic planning, no hard but correct decisions as there is the constant threat of an election in 2 weeks.

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  18. BC Voice of Reason15 October, 2009 11:37

    The CPC is getting the coalescing of the centrist Canadian voter because they are no SCARY anymore.

    They are definitely not as SCARY as the Liberal/NDP (and throw in the Bloc) coalition that has been hoping for the economy to fail to defeat the government.

    Now the Liberals/NDP have to fight the scary tags of the Left wing loonies in their parties that would tax the bejebbers out of us, kill the economy, shut down the banks and the oil sands and introduce expensive social programs while applauding and funding the spread of terrorism and the annihilation of Israel by their downtrodden Arab friends

    This is the same sort of irrational fears that Harper and the gay bashing, knuckle draggers, racists from the backwoods of Alberta had to fight.

    It takes years to prove that the radical loonies either on the right or the left will not be setting policy.

    It is the Lefts turn to prove that they wouldn't leave Canada in a smoldering mess.

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  19. Eric,

    Part of the problem with perceptions of newspapers is that left-wingers see left-biased articles and editorials and think that they are neutral/bang-on. It's not a leftist bias portraying the PM as a bad man because he so obviously is!

    There have been academic studies of Canadian mainstream media that clearly demonstrate a left-bias in both reporting and commentary. (Although I must admit I am not aware of recent ones, so I suppose that may have changed.)

    Let's use the G&M as an example. They endorsed the Tories in 2006 and 2008 (albeit in a qualified, reluctant way in 2006). Your argument is that that clearly proves the G&M is definitely not left-biased.

    My point is that that is not a logical interpretation because:
    1) The G&M endorsed the Liberals in the 3 previous elections
    2) Most of their columnists are decidedly left-wing
    3) News is generally covered with a leftist bias
    - one simple example of the above was a recent comparison done by one commentator that while Ignatieff gets his MPs to "stay mum", Harper "muzzles" his. Harper the big meanie, Ignatieff the nice man.

    "people know what they're getting "

    I don't agree that that is generally true. Most people buy their local city paper without being particularly aware that they are being influenced.

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  20. The coalition of the 3 losing parties, was the 'ultimate minority government' where 3 parties form a majority,
    and it was firmly rejected by a huge majority of Canadians.

    That was the turning point, Canadians woke up to the hazards of electing a minority govt in our parliamentary system,
    now Canadians clearly favour ELECTED majority governments.

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  21. I read the Globe and Mail every day, along with other papers, and I definitely do not find the paper to be left-wing. They've been having negative-Ignatieff/Liberal articles on their website since the summer.

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  22. Eric,

    No, of course you don't.

    Your own left-wing bias prevents you from noticing the left-wing bias.

    I'm not saying the G&M is a mouthpiece for the Liberal Party like the Toronto Star is; even the G&M can diverge from their norm occassionally.

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  23. BC Voice of Reason15 October, 2009 12:05

    So Eric

    According to your dispassionate analysis of the polling firms bias EKOS favours the Liberals by just over 2% and the reports the CPC by just over 1 %.

    That means the actual normalized results of the Canadian POV at this point in time would be a 18% CPC lead over the Liberals.

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  24. Sigh. Martin, if you can say that, than I can say that your own right-wing bias would make you unable to notice a neutral article or one that is only slightly right-wing. Everything that is left of you is "left-wing".

    It is unlikely that, while I can't get passed my own bias to objectively assess a newspaper, you can.

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  25. BCVOR,

    --- "According to your dispassionate analysis of the polling firms bias EKOS favours the Liberals by just over 2% and the reports the CPC by just over 1 %."

    Yes, but I haven't updated EKOS in a little while. And that analysis is not a concrete, proven thing. Just how the poll tends to compare to other polls.

    --- "That means the actual normalized results of the Canadian POV at this point in time would be a 18% CPC lead over the Liberals."

    No, not exactly. It means that while EKOS shows a 15 point lead, the average pollster would show an 18 point lead. Then, of course, there is the margin of error thrown in.

    The analysis you refer to is only comparing one pollster to the others. It doesn't mean that the average is 'correct'.

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  26. BC Voice of Reason15 October, 2009 12:11

    On the media's handling of Ignatieff particularly the G&M I agree that they have been giving Ignatieff a really hard time since June.

    1) Why did they not do a critical analysis of his weaknesses in the two years they had prior to the 120 seconds that the CPC ads pointed out these glaring weaknesses?

    2) Articles critical of Ignatieff do not show an anti-liberal bias. Ignatieff is the most right wing high profile Liberal since Paul Martin was a finance minister. The media attacks on Ignatieff are just a spill over of the internal Liberal campaign against him.

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  27. Robber88 said: "Just cause it's not as large as the sponsorship scandal does not make it less important. "
    ---------------------------------
    LOL! Um yeah it does. By a long shot. When someone tries to paint the arrogant and crass gaff of putting the CPC logo on gov't cheques in the same light as giving away hundreds of millions of dollars of my tax dollars to friends in Quesbec just to keep them happy it shows right there what's wrong with democracy: even numbskulls can vote.

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  28. Just wondering - the EKOS poll results seem to show decided voters only. I recall earlier there was a high number of undecided voters.

    Is that number available at all and does it impact the numbers?

    Is this a bigger percentage of a smaller pool or are actual numbers committing themselves to the Conservatives?

    I only wonder because I don't get a sense of general happiness with the government among the people I meet which would reflect this looming majority.

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  29. Eric wrote:

    "Sigh. Martin, if you can say that, than I can say that your own right-wing bias would make you unable to notice ... "

    Fair enough, I cannot guarantee that I am immune to bias-blindness.

    But my points remain valid:
    - that looking solely at election endorsements from one or two elections demonstrates nothing about any actual ongoing bias in reporting and commentary
    - any one person's (yours or mine) subjective assessment of a particular newspaper does not prove or disprove bias.

    What we really need are some hard, comprehensive facts.

    For example, one study of journalists in the Parliamentary Press gallery were asked about their personal political leanings:
    - 43% claimed to be in the "centre"
    - 42% said they were left-of-centre
    - only 4% said they were right-of-centre

    While there are some caveats to that study: it is somewhat dated, and, of course, personal leanings do not _guarantee_ that the reporting/commentary will be biased, it is nevertheless illustrative.

    On the G&M, go to their politics page and honestly assess their columnists:

    Powers and Silver offset each other but of the other 6 clearly partisan commentators, you get:
    Steele, Bell, Taber, Martin, Simpson -- all raging leftists

    offset by lonely Spector (who is almost apologetically centre-right).

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  30. Eric is there any chance you'd give us your provincial or at least, regional seat breakdowns? I'd appreciate it. Are you still using your 65 seat cap for the CPC in Ontario?*** I think people have concluded that minority governments, at least in Canada, don't work. Polls show well over 605 of canadians want a majority government. It may have been over 70%. Can you imagine a minority government, LPC or CPC trying t tackle the deficit with a minority? People don't like spending cuts and they don't like tax increases. People may realize that given the economic situation a strong hand is needed.***A big surprise is the CPC leading in Atlantic Canada. An eight point lead should add at least a 10 seat gain there. My guess if things turned out as this poll predicts. Minimum 170 seats for CPC, more likely 180. Also think CPC could surge in PQ during an actual election because I think Quebecers would want to be a part of a majority government.

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  31. Anonymous,

    -- "Just wondering - the EKOS poll results seem to show decided voters only. I recall earlier there was a high number of undecided voters."

    EKOS doesn't give a percentage for undecided voters, but it does give us the sample size of decided voters, so we can figure it out.

    This poll had 19% who either were undecided or gave no answer. A pretty big number, actually.

    By comparison, the week before had about 15% undecided, the week before that also had 15%, and the week before that had about 16%.

    Earl,

    --- "Eric is there any chance you'd give us your provincial or at least, regional seat breakdowns? I'd appreciate it. Are you still using your 65 seat cap for the CPC in Ontario?"

    The Conservatives took 72 seats in the West, 65 in Ontario (they reached that naturally, though, I didn't impose the cap), 10 in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada.

    --- Also think CPC could surge in PQ during an actual election because I think Quebecers would want to be a part of a majority government.

    What would make you think that? They haven't wanted to be part of a majority government since the Bloc came on the seen. And you can always count on Western Montreal to vote Liberal, so that really doesn't leave much room for growth for the Conservatives.

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  32. Interesting breakdown of the poll results and what it means in seats, 168 for PMSH and 68 for iggy. Lizzie is wasting her money, NNW.

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  33. -- "Interesting breakdown of the poll results and what it means in seats, 168 for PMSH and 68 for iggy."

    The totals are 160 and 76, not 168 and 68.

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  34. MaryT where did you find your totals? Please!

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  35. Eric, Martin,

    isn't it common sense that journalists would be left leaning ?

    When looking at demographic breakdowns it usually is shown that the more university education you get the more you lean towards the left.

    I believe this is especially true for people educated in social sciences or the arts.

    Except for some of the older guys who rose through the ranks my guess is most people working at a newspaper who have the potential to exert bias are probably more educated than the general population.

    This would seem to suggest that like the lonely Ayn Rand reading student on a campus full of neo-Marxists fighting for a green revolution, a right leaning media consumer is exposed to daily barrage of bias under the guise of neutrality.

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  36. EKOS breaks it down in terms of seats:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tories-really-taking-off-in-polls/article1324836/ I assume the the other seat MaryT has given the CPC is from Andre Auther

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  37. Jesse,

    --- "This would seem to suggest that like the lonely Ayn Rand reading student on a campus full of neo-Marxists fighting for a green revolution..."

    Makes me think of this quote:

    "There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs."

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  38. Eric,

    Heh. I actually read LOTR/Hobbit at 11 before all those silly movies came out. It actually doesn't require much reading skill, its just the length that dissuades people I think. Ayn Rand I did read at 13 but she turned me on to Dostoyevsky, Victor Hugo, and Dumas in the following years (she believed the Romantic period of literature was the greatest - life, not as it is, but as it should be.)

    I actually think her work is helpful to young adults who are trying to form their own identities. She stresses the importance of self worth, the efficacy of the individual, and describes life in heroic terms at a time when so much of our culture is petty and small.

    Obviously if people take it to far and become Ron Paul fans then it can be troublesome.

    Also, her atheism is annoying.

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  39. Eric,

    here comes Harris-Decima, just in time to counter balance EKOS...

    35-28. Well at least one pollster doesn't think Ignatieff is Stephane Dion just yet.

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  40. Jesse,

    I find atheism to be quite wonderful!

    Thanks for the Harris-Decima heads-up, hadn't seen it yet.

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  41. Paul Wells take:

    http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/10/15/separated-at-birth/

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  42. At NNW, either Tabor's story or the one underneath,.

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  43. From Eric's Post:

    "Earl:
    -- Also think CPC could surge in PQ during an actual election because I think Quebecers would want to be a part of a majority government.

    Eric:
    What would make you think that? They haven't wanted to be part of a majority government since the Bloc came on the seen. And you can always count on Western Montreal to vote Liberal, so that really doesn't leave much room for growth for the Conservatives.

    15 October, 2009 13:03"

    Eric, Quebec had representation in the Jean Chretien governments. The PM himself. No-one will know how things play out until we are looking at a CPC majority on polling day. I'm only thinking 15 to 20 seats for the CPC in PQ should they capture a majority in the next election. Otherwise there'd be a landslide. I don't see the Bloc being damaged badly by a CPC majority but I do think that some more seats will come to the CPC. Let's see how the two by elections work out. Here's another site that does seat projections:

    http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/

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  44. But EKOS has gone farther by plugging their numbers into a seat projection model that gives the Harper Conservatives 167 seats, a clear majority. They now have 143 seats.

    The projections – all hypothetical – do not bode well for Mr. Ignatieff and his Liberals. It would give them 68 seats, meaning he would do worse than his predecessor, Stéphane Dion, who won 77 seats in the 2008 election.




    *


    _________________________________________________

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  45. OT, but turn on CBC, 6yr old boy in a helium ballon that got away.

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  46. Sounds like he was never on it to begin with. It's been painful listening to the CBC and CNN anchors fill the air time without any information.

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  47. Let's hope he is hiding under his bed or someplace in the basement. After this scare what do the parent's do, hug him and then scold him.

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  48. Canadians want someone to have a majority, and have decided its easier to give it to Harper.

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  49. The numbers are very easy to explain. Voters gave the new leader a honeymoon and an opportunity to prove himself. When he backed out of the coalition and propped up the government his numbers were 30-35. When he forced his hand and asked voters for an election they turned on the Liberal Party.
    We are dealing with "STFU" mood. Most 99.5% Canadians don't care, read or post on political blogs.

    We don't care about wafers, olympic logos conspiracy, oversized cheques (FIP violation). We are not morons.

    Every time the Liberal leaders present a wonderful idea on why they are better they REFUSE any detail or adult conversation.

    Green Thrust, Economic Partnership, Global Reputation restored, no numbers, wait and see until 5 days before the campaign.

    Are you kidding me? These numbers are not about Harper or the CPC as they are an indictment against the official opposition and the leader.

    It is NOT enough to criticize and blame the government. Voters understood the Global recession was imported!

    The Liberals never did their job and provide a responsible challenge and alternative policy to show a gap on what or why they are different.

    40% of confirmed Liberal voters don't want their own party to topple the CPC!

    Time to pop that bubble and listen. If they force an election the results will worse than October 2008.

    The undecided split for CPC, check the polls from 2008.

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  50. I'm not referring to how people who are undecided the night before election day end up voting. I'm talking about people who are undecided when there is no campaign at all. Right now I think those are mostly non-Conservatives who don't know which opposition party to support.

    There is no particular pattern as to how last minute undecided voters shift - it all depends on who wins the final weekend of the campaign. In 2004 and 2006 people who made up their minds on election day skewed heavily Liberal - in 2008 it was more Tory - who knows what will happen next election.

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  51. CanadianSense,

    You might be on to something. All the pundits are mystified that Harper is doing so well.

    It must be his piano playing! (Never mind unemployment went down three decimal points in Canada and went up three decimal points in the US - the first time we've seen a divergence of greater than 1 percentage point in our favour in over 25 years.)

    But don't they notice Tory ridings are getting their stimulus dollars first?? (Sure, that's the way it always is when you have an MP in government.)

    Don't they notice the over sized novelty checks!! (Who cares, get a life.)

    Its all jobs, its all the economy, all the time. That's all we want to know about, that's all we care about right now.

    Whichever party is being seen as playing silly political games is going to be punished harshly. Right now that's the Liberals for trying to start an election.

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