Thursday, October 15, 2009

New EKOS Poll: 15.2-pt Conservative Lead

Incredible, isn't it? A 15-point lead!

EKOS has its new poll this morning, taken between October 7 and October 13 (but not during the Thanksgiving weekend) and involving 2,729 Canadians. The national result:

Conservatives - 40.7%
Liberals - 25.5%
New Democrats - 14.3%
Greens - 10.5%
Bloc Quebecois - 9.1%

These numbers are almost unbelievable to me, but not because I doubt the pollster's results. I don't. I just don't understand! There's nothing really going on right now. There's no Liberal scandal, there's been no Conservative governing coup. But the Liberals are more unpopular now than during the sponsorship scandal! And while Michael Ignatieff can certainly be seen to be unlikeable, he really hasn't done much to make people dislike him. It is difficult to hate someone who hasn't really done or said all that much. It really is puzzling - the Conservatives have more support than the Liberals and NDP, combined.

The regional results are excellent for Stephen Harper. In British Columbia, he has 39.1% support, followed by the Liberals at 23.2% (still relatively okay) and the NDP at 20.3%. The Greens have gained some ground and stand at 17.4%. With the Tories up and the NDP down, Dawn Black's vacated NDP seat could fall into Conservative hands.

Alberta is very blue, with 66.7% support for the Conservatives. The Liberals are at 13.9% and the NDP is at 12.2%.

The Prairies are also solidly Conservative, at 55.9%. The Liberals follow with 20.0% and the NDP is in third with 19.0%.

The Conservatives now have a 13-point lead over the Liberals in Ontario, at 44.1% to 31.0%. The NDP is at 14.2%.

In Quebec, the Bloc still leads with 36.1%. The Liberals are still struggling with 22.6%, while the Conservatives are riding high at 22.5%. The NDP has faltered and is at 8.4%, now behind the Greens who are at 10.4%.

Finally, in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are still behind. The Tories are at 39.1%, the Liberals are at 31.0%, and the NDP is at 23.6%.

These results really can't be reconciled with the recent Ipsos-Reid poll. One of them is wrong, or the reality is somewhere in between.

The Conservatives lead in every demographic, as well as in Vancouver, Calgary, and Ottawa. The Liberals do still lead in Toronto, with 40.8% to the Conservative 38.9%. The Bloc has a big lead in Montreal, with 37.9% to the Liberal 26.0%. With these sorts of numbers, the Bloc could actually make gains on the island.

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 160
Liberals - 76
Bloc Quebecois - 50
New Democrats - 22

So this is the first poll we've seen that gives the Tories a comfortable majority. The Liberals actually win one seat fewer than they did in 2008, while the NDP drops 15 from the election. The Bloc gains one seat, but with the Conservatives in a majority the Bloc actually loses a lot of influence. At this point, the only way we'll see an election is if the Prime Minister decides to have one. The opposition is going to have to start playing nice, simply to remove any pretext for the calling of an election.

The projection will be updated either today or tomorrow.