Monday, October 19, 2009

Polling Firm Leanings - Léger Update

I've updated the pollster leanings chart for Léger Marketing, incorporating the last few months of polling.

Nationally, out of seven pollsters Léger is third-most favourable to the Conservatives, Liberals, and New Democrats. They're the fourth-most favourable to the Greens. So, right in the middle of the pack.

In Quebec, out of eight pollsters Léger is the fifth-most favourable pollster for the Conservatives, the second-most for the Liberals, the most favourable for the NDP, the sixth-most for the Bloc, and the seventh-most for the Greens.

The chart below tracks how each pollster tends to lean when calculating support levels for the various parties, as compared to the average polling results from other pollsters each month. This does not necessarily equate to a deliberate bias, but instead is more reflective of the polling methods used.

Just for fun, let's tweak the latest Léger national poll (September 25) according to these findings:

Conservatives - 36.0%
Liberals - 29.0%
New Democrats - 16.0%
Greens - 7.0%

And in Quebec:

Bloc Quebecois - 33.6%
Liberals - 27.4%
Conservatives - 18.4%
New Democrats - 10.5%
Greens - 6.6%

The following chart shows each pollster's average variation from other polling firms. The numbers are the amount of percentage points a particular pollster favours or disfavours that particular party compared to other pollsters over a similar period of time.

4 comments:

  1. Seeing the relative leaning of the polling firms is fun.

    However, I hope nobody makes the mistake of thinking that having very strong leanings makes their results wrong.

    With a larger group of pollsters you'd expect the different methodologies to cancel each other out and the closest result to reality to be the "tweaked" numbers. But with so few pollsters in Canada it probably isn't.

    Eric, has anyone measured who got the last few elections right ? It would be useful to see how the polls lean relative to reality instead of relative to each other.

    Of course, this is what MOE is for.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Jesse,

    --- "Eric, has anyone measured who got the last few elections right ?"

    Yes, I did. That is how I weight the polling firms.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Eric,

    Ok found it. So Angus Reid is your most reliable pollster eh, followed by Leger marketing. Does Leger poll on a regular interval ? They don't seem to have released anything for awhile.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Léger seems to poll quarterly at the national level, far more often in Quebec. But during the last election they were active.

    ReplyDelete

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