Thursday, October 15, 2009

New HD Poll: 7-point Conservative Lead

CTV News has a little teaser of a Canadian Press report on the latest Harris-Decima poll, taken between October 1 and October 12 and involving "just over" 2,000 Canadians. The results:

Conservatives - 35%
Liberals - 28%
New Democrats - 15%
Bloc Quebecois - 10%
Greens - 10%

Certainly better news for the Liberals, and worse (though on the whole, a large lead is always good) news for the Conservatives. But this one looks to be a little bit on the outskirts of what we've been seeing lately.

No full regional results, but some similar to the Ipsos-Reid poll earlier this week. The Tories are at 40% in Ontario with the Liberals behind at 36%. The Bloc leads in Quebec with 41%, followed by the Liberals at 24% and the Tories at 15%.

I'll post more about this poll when I have more information.


  1. Éric,
    You asked why there has been a big change in the polls when nothing has happened recently. The only reason it is happening right now is because of that psychological phenomenon known as "momentum". Simply put: people like successful people.

    When the Argonauts are winning, more people go to their games. When politicians are portrayed as gaining popularity, people tend to get a more positive impression of them.

    Most bumps in the polls due solely to momentum dissipate pretty quickly once people start analyzing issues. The Liberals had a 30% lead in the polls for much of the late '90s, but that was greatly reduced once elections were called and people had to focus. During uneventful elections, some politicians can ride momentum waves to big electoral success, only to crash in the polls a few months later (eg., Brian Mulroney, Bob Rae, Mario Dumont). Conservatives would be wise not to confuse a momentum wave with a new, stable base of support.

  2. The only problem with that theory is that there is no evidence that people vote for whoever they think is winning. If anything, I've noticed that when final polls in an election forecast a big win for one party or another - the final results usually end up being a bit closer than the what the final polls were saying. Its almost a "reverse bandwagon effect".

  3. I notice that HD has still not published any details from their poll. Eric, do you ever try contacting them to see if they wilol send you anything?

  4. I do sometimes, and they usually respond. I haven't this time. I will send them a note now.


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