Friday, October 23, 2009

Projection Update - 137 CPC, 98 LPC

Another week, another projection update. Only a small change this time, with the Conservatives gaining one seat from the Liberals in Ontario.This puts the Tories at 137 seats, the Liberals at 98 seats, the Bloc at 49, and the NDP at 24. The Conservatives have also gained 0.4 points nationally, while the Liberals have lost 0.3 and the Bloc and Greens have lost 0.1 points apiece.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives have gained 0.3 points and lead with 38.3% and 21 seats. The Liberals have lost 0.2 points and stand at 25.0% and 10 seats. The NDP has gained 0.1 points and is at 24.6% and five seats. The Greens have lost 0.1 points and are at 11.5%.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have made another big gain. They're up 0.5 points and lead the province with 38.8% and 51 seats, up from 50 seats last week. The Liberals are down 0.6 points and one seat, and are now at 35.8% and 44 seats. The NDP has gained 0.1 points and stands at 15.1% and 11 seats. The Greens remain steady at 9.8%.

In Quebec, The Bloc Quebecois has lost 0.1 points but maintains the lead with 37.0% and 49 seats. The Liberals have lost 0.4 points and are at 28.1% and 18 seats. The Conservatives have made a significant 0.5-point gain and are at 17.8% and seven seats. The NDP is down 0.2 points to 10.5% and one seat, and the Greens are up 0.1 points at 6.2%.

In terms of other large regional movements, the Conservatives are down 0.3 points in Alberta and up 0.5 points in the Prairies. The Liberals are up 0.3 in Alberta and down 0.4 points in the Prairies. The NDP is down 0.3 points in Alberta and 0.3 points in Atlantic Canada.

The Conservatives have had a good week, they've only dipped in Alberta. And their gains in Ontario and Quebec were big. The Liberals had a bad week, but not disastrous. They're up in Atlantic Canada and Alberta, but the losses in Ontario and Quebec are important. The NDP made some tiny gains in BC and Ontario, but their losses in Alberta, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada hurt them, especially in Alberta and Quebec where they have but a toe-hold. The Greens remained remarkably steady, while the Bloc took a tiny hit but grew their lead over the Liberals by 0.3 points.

I get the sense that things are going to return to normalcy, if we can call it that. The Liberals will claw their way back up to about 30% and the Conservatives will dip back to below 40% but above 35%. It is obvious now that Michael Ignatieff took a big hit by trying to force an election. I'm not convinced that the idea of an election itself was the problem, but rather that the Conservatives haven't done enough to deserve being booted out of office and, in any case, Ignatieff did not make a strong enough case as to why he should replace Stephen Harper.

Now that the electoral debate is over, I think a lot of angry swing voters who used to answer "Liberal" to polls will go back. But enough will stay with the Conservatives to keep them comfortably ahead.