Monday, October 26, 2009

New Environics Poll: 12-pt Conservative Lead

The people over at Environics Research Group have very kindly sent me an early look at their most recent polling results. Taken between October 15 and October 21 and involving 2,000 Canadians, these are the national results:

Conservatives - 38%
Liberals - 26%
New Democrats - 16%
Greens - 10%
Bloc Quebecois - 8%

As Environics points out in their press release, these are very similar results to the 2008 election campaign, which was exactly one year ago. So, back to square one.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are below-average with 34%, while the NDP (at 29%) and Liberals (at 24%) are both doing well. The Greens are at 13%.

Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are amalgamated into the "Prairies" for Environics, so I can't use those numbers.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are at 40%, the Liberals are at 32%, the NDP is at 15%, and the Greens are at 11%. For the Conservative and Liberal results, those closely match today's Ipsos-Reid poll.

In Quebec, the Bloc is at 36% followed by the Liberals at 24%, the Conservatives at 19%, and the NDP at 10%. A good gap for the Bloc while the Conservatives are seemingly sliding back from their recent +20% numbers.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 31% apiece. The NDP is close behind at 26%.

Not a bad poll for the NDP, and another good one for the Tories. Using my own projected seat totals for Alberta and the Prairies, this poll translates into the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 142
Liberals - 83
Bloc Quebecois - 49
New Democrats - 34

So, a virtual carbon copy of the 2008 election. The only real difference is that the small NDP drop gives the Liberals a few extra seats.

Thanks again to Environics for the sneak-peek!


  1. Can you do anything to de-amalgamate Prairies data? This seems like a common problem.

  2. The sample size in Man/Sask is usually very small in these national polls. You might as well be asking to de-amalgamate Nova Scotia from the rest of Atlantic

  3. IF the CPC takes two of four by elections then these good poll numbers mean something. If they take 3 of 4 the message is clear and if they finish second in Montreal the rest are in trouble. Next week should be exciting!

  4. By far the most likely scenario is that the CPC takes 1 out of four byelections and if Bob Fife is to be believed they may lose CCMV and get zero. What will be our spin if that happens?

    BTW: The byelections are two weeks not one week away.

  5. No spin DL. If they lose all four by elections then I'll be disappointed and the opposition back on offence. I think It depends who winds the ridings , for example if the Bloc and NDP each take two and LPC does poorly as well then you'll probably not see any movement by LPC to dislodge the CPC but Layton will have to rethink his support. O for 4 means CPC is not likely in majority territory.

  6. If the NDP took two of the byelections and finished second in Hochelaga - i don't think Layton would re-think anything. It would be taken as a vindication of the current strategy and you might start to see the NDP rattle the Liberals' cage a few times in the near future.

  7. Dl what do you think if CPC take 3 of the by elections and finishes strongly in the fourth?

  8. If that were to happen then I guess the CPC would have reason to feel very bullish - but then again the Ontario Liberals had a couple of byelection wins this year and now they are already in trouble.

    While it would be a major longshot - its not inconceivable that the Tories could win three byelection, but I can guarantee (and Eric being from Quebec can back me up on this) that the Tories will be utterly humiliated in Hochelaga and the only question will be whether they come in fifth behind the Green party or not.

  9. DL, Earl,

    I've said it before, i'll say it again, by-elections are anti-incumbent in nature and not a good measure of the support of the government. The protest vote is always over-represented and the gov't turnout is low because Harper will still be PM and the balance of power will not shift.

    My prediction is this: 2 NDP, 2 BQ, and a razor thin Harper majority in the federal election held in the spring.

  10. Jesse you're a brave man. If CPC wins two or three of the by elections then it is obviously not an anti-incumbent vote but an anti-opposition vote or more precisely an anti-election vote.

    I wouldn't pretend to able to predict the results of an election in the spring or if we even have one. I doubt the opposition is going to precipitate an election that will lead to a CPC majority. You never know though.

  11. Off topic but fascinating reading in any event:

  12. Hey Earl,

    Megan Mcardle over at theatlantic has spent some time deconstructing a lot of what Matt Taibbi has writen about the collapse, including this piece. Unfortunately he seems intent on building exciting narratives about good guys and bad guys. I guess when you write for the Rolling Stone people expect some action.

    But short selling is a normal activity. Naked short selling isn't a "flat-out counterfeiting scheme", its making a gamble that you don't have the money to pay for if you lose.

    And 1.7 million doesn't sound like enough money being put down as a bet against huge firms to really cause all that much panic.

    This sort of stuff, while interesting, is really happening at the margins of the crisis. Much bigger forces determine these kinds of things.

  13. I think the most telling thing about this poll is the 29% undecided.
    That's a lot of people who aren't committed to voting for any party for the time being. If even half of those people voted in protest, it could be anybody's game.

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  15. I think you've just become my best source of new poll information.

    Feel free to check the table of opinion polls at - but I'm pretty sure any gaps are mine rather than yours.


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