Monday, October 5, 2009

New SC Poll: 13-pt Conservative Lead

CTV is reporting on a new Strategic Counsel taken between October 2 and October 4 and involving 1,000 Canadians. The national result:

Conservatives - 41%
Liberals - 28%
New Democrats - 14%
Bloc Quebecois - 9%
Greens - 9%

A huge result for the Tories, while the other parties are at about what we've seen over the last few weeks.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have a terrific 46%, followed by the Liberals at 30% and the NDP at 16%. Half-decent result for the NDP, bad for the Liberals. But 46% for the Conservatives seems unbelievable.

In Quebec, the Bloc is still comfortably ahead at 40% with the Liberals at a very strong 33%. The Conservatives are at 15%, the Greens at 8%, and the NDP at 4%. The NDP result is too low, but if the Liberal result is true that is a very good showing. That the Conservatives can reach 41% support nationally with only 15% in Quebec is more than a little unbalanced.

Strategic Counsel, for some reason, lumps BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba into "the West", making the result there useless. But they are at 58% there, for what its worth. The Liberals are at 18% and the NDP is at 15%. The Liberals have lost eight points and the NDP seven, all going to the Tories. They don't provide results for Atlantic Canada.

I can't do a seat projection because of the incomplete information. But using the current projection for the West and Atlantic Canada and then using the results from SC for Ontario and Quebec, we get:

Conservatives - 146 seats
Liberals - 87 seats
Bloc Quebecois - 51 seats
New Democrats - 24 seats

With strong results in the West and probably out east, though, it isn't unlikely that the Conservatives have picked up a few seats in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, swept Alberta, and maybe took one or two from the opposition in the Prairies. I'm not sure if that's enough for a majority, though.