Sunday, October 25, 2009

New IR Poll: 15-pt Conservative Lead

The National Post has a little information on the new Ipsos-Reid poll, taken between October 20 and October 22 and involving 1,003 Canadians.

The only information to be gleaned from the report is that the Conservatives are at 40%, the Liberals at 25%, the NDP at 13%, and the Greens are at 11%. Strong results for the Greens and Conservatives, very weak for the Liberals and NDP.

In Ontario, the Conservatives lead the Liberals 41% to 32% (which, with the MOE, is within 2008's result) while in Quebec the Bloc is doing very well at 42% with the Liberals at 22% and the Conservatives at 18%. Such a huge gap between the Bloc and the two major federalist parties would mean big Bloc gains.

I'll have more information once Ipsos-Reid puts up the details of this poll onto their site.


  1. This pollster has a strong Conservative, anti-NDP lean although it is weighted the 4th highest of 8 pollsters in Eric's model.

    So the numbers feel a little high for the Conservatives, a little low for NDP.

    Regardless, I think we've entered a period where the polling is very favourable to Harper and an election is very unlikely to happen.

    Expect Harper to hold votes on various money bills after the Liberal's poor by-election showings next month to force Ignatieff to humiliate himself by propping up the Tories.

  2. Hopefully those (theoretical) money bills don't involve spending any more money.

  3. Let me guess: The popularity bump is due to Harper proclaiming that he's in favour of more NHL teams in Canada.

    Just like the previous bump was due to Harper's musical duet with Yo Yo Ma.

    If only he were to promise a free puppy and kitten to every Canadian, Harper would be the first PM elected by a unanimous 100% of the populace.

  4. AJR79,

    they need to bring in an HST bill and they need to bring in a tax on the forestry industry or else the American's will start collecting duties (there was a recent trade ruling).

    They've been holding off on the votes for now.


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