Wednesday, October 28, 2009

New Crop Poll: 14-pt BQ Lead

Le Soleil has the most complete report of a new CROP poll, taken between October 15 and October 25 and involving 1,000 Quebecers. Here are the results:

Bloc Quebecois - 37%
Liberals - 23%
Conservatives - 21%
New Democrats - 16%

The Green result is not listed, but 3% remains.

For CROP to give the Bloc such a good number and the Liberals such a bad number is very significant. At 23%, the Liberals are lower than Dion's 24% while the Conservatives are just about where they were in 2008. The Bloc is also only one point below their 2008 result, but the NDP is way up. That is a terrific result for them. This poll would give the Bloc 49 seats, the Liberals 15, the Conservatives nine, and the NDP two. In case you're wondering, 16% puts the NDP in a position to be able to keep Outremont and also take Gatineau.

Francophones voters, who make up the vast majority of seats in Quebec, choose the Bloc at 42%, followed by the Liberals and Conservatives at 20% apiece. In and around Quebec City, the area of Conservative strength, the Bloc nevertheless has a 35% to 32% lead. The NDP and Liberals at 15% and 14%, respectively, are not in the race. At 35%, the Bloc looks to be able to take back some of the seats they lost to the Conservatives in 2006.

When asked who would make the best Prime Minister, 26% chose Jack Layton, 25% chose Stephen Harper, and 20% chose Michael Ignatieff. Good results for Layton and even Harper. Not good for Ignatieff - though not horrible.

Quebec and Ontario Provincial Political Polls

We also have some provincial results from the CROP poll.

The Parti Quebecois is leading with 40%, followed closely by the Liberals at 39%. It is not often that the PQ is doing better than the BQ, which is actually a positive sign for the federal party. The ADQ follows with 8%, barely ahead of Quebec Solidaire and the Parti Vert with 6%.

The francophone vote leans heavily to the PQ, with 46%. The PLQ takes 33%. In Montreal, however, the Liberals have the lead, 45% to 35%. In Quebec City, the PQ is in front with 39%. The Liberals have 27% and the ADQ is competitive with 24%. In other words, virtually all of the province's ADQ support is in this region.

This poll would give the PQ 64 seats and a majority government. The PLQ would have 57 seats while the ADQ and QS would have two seats each.

Jean Charest is the favourite premier of 42%, with Marois having 33% support. Independence is at 35%, far below the combined score (46%) of the two sovereigntist parties.

Ipsos-Reid also has an Ontario provincial poll. The Liberals are leading with 39%, but the Progressive Conservatives are close behind at 36%. One wonders if this has more to do with what is going on at the federal level. The Ontario NDP has 16% and the Greens have 9%.

Environics also has an Ontario provincial poll, putting the Progressive Conservatives at 37%, the Liberals at 32%, the NDP at 19%, and the Greens at 11%.

If we average out the two polls taken over a comparable period of time, we get the Progressive Conservatives at 36.5%, the Liberals at 35.5%, the New Democrats at 17.5%, and the Greens at 10%.