Friday, October 16, 2009

Projection Update - 136 CPC, 99 LPC

Another week, another gain for the Conservatives. They now lead with 136 seats to 99 Liberal seats.Both the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois remain steady at 24 and 49 seats, respectively.

The Tories have also gained 0.4 points nationally, while the Liberals have dropped 0.5 and the NDP has dropped 0.2. The Greens have picked up 0.1. The Conservatives now have a five-point lead over the Liberals, 35.2% to 30.2%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives and Greens have each gained 0.2 points. The Liberals have lost 0.3 and the NDP has lost 0.2. The Conservatives now have 38% support, followed by the Liberals at 25.2%, the NDP at 24.5%, and the Greens at 11.6%.

In Ontario, the Conservatives and Liberals trade a seat. The Conservatives are now projected to take 50 while the Liberals will take 45. The Conservatives have taken 0.2 points from the Liberals, while the Greens have taken 0.1 points from the NDP. The Conservatives now lead with 38.3%, followed by the Liberals at 36.4%, the NDP at 15.0%, and the Greens at 9.8%.

In Quebec, the Bloc remains steady at 37.1%. The Liberals have dropped 0.3 points and stand at 28.5%. The Conservatives have gained 0.3 points and are now at 17.3%. The NDP is steady at 10.7% and the Greens pick up 0.1 points to reach 6.1%.

The Conservatives have also gained 0.5 points in the Prairies and 0.4 points in Atlantic Canada. The Liberals have lost 0.3 points in the Prairies. Other regional movements are less than 0.3 points.

Certainly not huge movement this week, but with every solid poll for the Conservatives they cement their lead in the projection.


  1. Weird, these are almost the exact numbers in the 2004 election, but the Liberals won a minority instead.

  2. If there is an election, either Eric or democraticspace is going to be eating humble pie (demspace has the Tories winning over 150 seats).


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