Thursday, October 22, 2009

New EKOS Poll: 11.2-pt Conservative Lead

The new EKOS poll this week (thanks to DL for the sneak-peek) shows the Conservative lead narrowing a little. But just a little.

Taken between October 14 and October 20, and involving 3,270 Canadians, these were the national results:

Conservatives - 38.3%
Liberals - 27.1%
New Democrats - 14.5%
Greens - 11.0%
Bloc Quebecois - 9.0%

Certainly, still a good result for the Conservatives. But they want to be much closer to 40%, if not above it. This sort of result would give them more or less what they had in the 2008 election. The Liberal result is certainly bad, but it is better, which is a good sign for them. The NDP needs to be worried about their falling to the wayside.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives seem to be back down and are at 37.5%. The Liberals are at 25.4% and the NDP is at 24.9%. At 12.1%, the Greens aren't electing Elizabeth May.

In Alberta, the Conservatives are good at 59.5% and the Liberals are very competitive at 21.7%. The NDP is in trouble in Edmonton-Strathcona with 8.3%.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives lead with 54.1%, the NDP follows at 22.6%, and the Liberals are struggling at 16.7%.

The Conservatives have a 10.2-point lead in Ontario over the Liberals, 41.8% to 31.6%. A very good number for the Tories. The NDP is at 14.1%.

The Bloc Quebecois leads Quebec with 35.8%. The Liberals and Conservatives are tied for second at 23.1%. A good result for the Conservatives, a bad result for the Liberals. The NDP is at 8.0% and in fifth, behind the Greens at 10.0%.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have their only lead, 36.6% to the Conservative 32.0%. The NDP is at 22.4%.

As has been the case for awhile now, the Conservatives lead in almost every demographic. Only the less-than-25-year-olds have withstood their charms. The Conservatives also lead in the major cities, including Toronto, while the Liberals have moved back into first, ahead of the Bloc, in Montreal.

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 152
Liberals - 84
Bloc Quebecois - 49
New Democrats - 23

So the Conservatives are back into minority territory, but only just. No one else stands to improve much at all.

The question of what electoral result would be best was also asked. The options were Liberal minority/majority, Conservative minority/majority, or none of these.

The favourite option is a Conservative majority, with 30.1%. Interestingly, that is well below national Conservative support. The next favourite option is a Liberal majority, with 21.3%. Then it is a Liberal minority at 13.5% and then a Conservative minority with 9.3%. The "none of these" option was almost as high as a Conservative majority, with 25.9%.

This also means that 39.4% chose a Conservative government of some kind while 34.8% chose a Liberal government. For the Tories, that is only 3% higher than their national support. For the Liberals, that is 28% higher.

As to how the supporters of the various parties answered, less than 10% of Conservatives and Liberals wanted their opponent in government. But for the three perennial opposition parties, a Liberal minority is the clear favourite. In fact, for all three parties, a minority of some kind is preferred to a majority. Which shows sense.

Almost half of NDP supporters (49.6%) believe that an NDP government is best. Those understanding that this would be impossible chose the Liberals (31.6%) over the Conservatives (18.5%) as the government.

Green supporters also chose "none of these" above all (49.6%), but the Liberals (33.8%) were favoured over the Conservatives (16.6%).

Bloc supporters are slightly more sensible, with 46.7% saying "none of these". The Liberals were next with 30.3% and the Conservatives last with 22.9%.

As usual, this shows that the Liberals have more potential for growth by picking at the supporters of the smaller parties. How to do that is another matter entirely.