Thursday, October 8, 2009

Projection Update - 135 CPC, 100 LPC

A big jump this week, with the Conservatives getting into a "stable minority".The Conservatives have picked up six seats and are now at 135. The Liberals have lost five and are at 100, while the NDP has lost one and is at 24. The Bloc Quebecois is steady at 49 seats.

A few bad weeks of polling has finally begun to take a toll on the Liberals in the projection. What was a trend is now a political reality.

The Tories gain 0.8 points nationally. The Bloc has gained 0.1 points, while the Liberals lose 0.7 points and the Greens 0.1. The Conservatives now have a 4.1-point lead over the Liberals with 34.8% to 30.7%. The NDP is at 15.7%, the Bloc Quebecois at 9.3%, and the Greens are at 9.1%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives have gained 0.7 points, the Liberals have lost 0.6, and the NDP and Greens have lost 0.3 points each. The Conservatives now lead with 37.8%, followed by the Liberals at 25.5% and the NDP at 24.7%. The Greens are at 11.4%. The Conservatives are projected to take 21 seats, the Liberals to take 10, and the NDP to take 5.

In Ontario, the Conservatives gain a whole point as well as three seats. The Liberals lose those seats to the Conservatives as well as 0.8 points. The NDP has gained 0.1 points and the Greens have lost 0.3 points. The projection is now 38.1% and 49 seats for the Tories, 36.6% and 46 seats for the Liberals, and 15.1% and 11 seats for the NDP. The Greens are at 9.7%.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois has gained 0.4 points while the Conservatives have gained 0.5 and one seat. The Liberals have lost 0.7 points and one seat, the NDP is down 0.2, and the Greens are down 0.1. The Bloc still leads with 37.1% and 49 seats. The Liberals are next with 28.8% and 18 seats, then the Conservatives with 17% and 7 seats, and finally the NDP at 10.7% and 1 seat. The Greens are at 6%.

There was a seat change in Atlantic Canada, where the Conservatives gained one and the NDP lost one. Other big vote changes include a 0.4-point Liberal loss in Alberta, a 0.4-point NDP loss and a 0.5-point Liberal loss in the Prairies, a 0.6-point Conservative gain and 0.4-point Liberal loss in Atlantic Canada, and a 0.3-point Liberal loss in the North.

The Conservatives are safely on their way to a repeat of the 2008 performance, while the Liberals still look to increase their caucus, mostly at the expense of the NDP.