Thursday, October 29, 2009

Projection Update: 139 CPC, 95 LPC, 49 BQ, 25 NDP

The Conservative rise and Liberal decline continues.The Liberals have dropped three seats, two of them going to the Conservatives and one of them going to the New Democrats.

Nationally, the Conservatives have picked up 0.5 points while the Liberals have lost that amount. The gap is now 6.7 points, 36.1% to 29.4%. The NDP and Greens have each also picked up 0.1 points.

In British Columbia, the NDP has gained 0.4 points. The Greens have lost 0.3 points and the Liberals have lost 0.2 points. The Conservatives remain steady at 38.3% and 21 seats. The New Democrats have moved into second with 25.0% and five seats, while the Liberals are at 24.8% and ten seats. The Greens, at 11.2%, are far from winning a seat.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have opened up their lead by another 0.8 points, and stand at 39.1% and 52 seats. This is where one of their seat gains has come. The Liberals have lost 0.5 points and a seat and sit at 35.3% and 43 seats. The NDP is steady at 15.1% and 11 seats, and the Greens bring up the rear with 10.0%, a gain of 0.2 points.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois has dropped 0.1 points and stands at 36.9% and 49 seats. The Liberals have lost a massive 0.8 points and one seat and are not at 27.3% and 17 seats. The Conservatives have gained 0.5 points and one seat, and are at 18.3% and eight seats. The NDP has picked up 0.3 points and is at 10.8% and one seat. The Greens are steady at 6.2%.

As for large movements in the other regions, the Conservatives have gained 0.9 points in the Prairies and 0.4 points in Atlantic Canada. They've lose 0.3 points in Alberta, however.

The Liberals have lost 0.6 points in Atlantic Canada and a seat, which has gone to the NDP. The NDP has also lost 0.6 points in the Prairies.

Things are slowly returning to October 2008 levels. Peter Donolo has his work cut out for him.