Monday, October 19, 2009

Polling Firm Leanings - Léger Update

I've updated the pollster leanings chart for Léger Marketing, incorporating the last few months of polling.

Nationally, out of seven pollsters Léger is third-most favourable to the Conservatives, Liberals, and New Democrats. They're the fourth-most favourable to the Greens. So, right in the middle of the pack.

In Quebec, out of eight pollsters Léger is the fifth-most favourable pollster for the Conservatives, the second-most for the Liberals, the most favourable for the NDP, the sixth-most for the Bloc, and the seventh-most for the Greens.

The chart below tracks how each pollster tends to lean when calculating support levels for the various parties, as compared to the average polling results from other pollsters each month. This does not necessarily equate to a deliberate bias, but instead is more reflective of the polling methods used.

Just for fun, let's tweak the latest Léger national poll (September 25) according to these findings:

Conservatives - 36.0%
Liberals - 29.0%
New Democrats - 16.0%
Greens - 7.0%

And in Quebec:

Bloc Quebecois - 33.6%
Liberals - 27.4%
Conservatives - 18.4%
New Democrats - 10.5%
Greens - 6.6%

The following chart shows each pollster's average variation from other polling firms. The numbers are the amount of percentage points a particular pollster favours or disfavours that particular party compared to other pollsters over a similar period of time.