Wednesday, December 29, 2010

BC Liberals and NDP still neck-and-neck

A pre-Christmas poll by Angus-Reid put the BC Liberals and BC New Democrats tied at 38% apiece, an unchanged situation from a poll taken earlier in the month. But the picture appears to be clearer as to who will lead the respective parties in a few months.Angus-Reid's last poll in early December put the BC Liberals and BC NDP at 36%, so this represents a growth of two points for each of the parties.

The BC Greens have taken a step back, down two points to 12%, while the BC Conservatives are at 7%, up one.

The BC New Democrats lead in most parts of the province. They're ahead of the BC Liberals on Vancouver Island (43% to 31%), in the Interior (39% to 35%), and in the North (35% to 31%). That's a gain of seven points and five points for the NDP on Vancouver Island and in the Interior, respectively, but a loss of seven points in the North.

The BC Liberals lead in and around Vancouver with 43% (+4) to 35% for the NDP (-2). They've lost three points on Vancouver Island and seven in the North, but have gained four in the Interior.

The BC Greens are performing best in and around Vancouver with 14%, up one, while they've dropped eight in the Interior. The BC Conservatives were steady in Vancouver but grew outside of the city, gaining 13 points in the North.

With these regional results, the BC New Democrats would win 43 seats and form the slimmest, almost non-existent majority. The BC Liberals would win 42 seats. A dysfunctional assembly, most likely.

The BC New Democrats would win their seats almost evenly across the province, with 15 in Metro Vancouver, 13 on Vancouver Island, 11 in the Interior, and four in the North.

The BC Liberals would win the bulk (26) of their seats in and around Vancouver, with another 11 seats in the Interior, four in the North, and one on Vancouver Island.

Christy Clark appears to have solidified her lead as the front-runner for the next leader of the BC Liberals. She's a "good choice" for 46% of British Columbians (+5 since early December), but more importantly is a "good choice" for 66% of BC Liberal supporters, a gain of 15 points. Kevin Falcon is still in second, a "good choice" for 28% of British Columbians and 45% of BC Liberal supporters.

The picture is a little murkier for the BC New Democrats, but Mike Farnworth appears to be the front-runner. He's a "good choice" for 40% of British Columbians (+6) and 49% of New Democratic supporters (also +6). Adrian Dix is the runner-up at 24% and 37%, respectively.

These provincial "good choice" numbers virtually mirror the results of the 2009 election, indicating that Clark and Farnworth could bring things back to square one.


  1. Another interesting tidbit from this poll is that the opposition to the HST has plummeted to 54%.

    The small sub-sample for the north shows 19% for the CPC and 13% for Independent/Other for a total of 32%, which sounds kinda wonky.

    As for the leadership race, the Liberal membership, at around 30,000, is more pragmatic and will be looking at who is best able to win the next election. My money is on Christy Clark, with moderate George Abbott close behind as he will likely receive a considerable amount of second preferences.

    The NDP membership, which is at around 10,000, is more ideological and dogmatic. Farnworth is seen as the most right-wing within the NDP - doubtful that he will get the nod. My money is on Adrian Dix.

    BTW, pothead Dana Larsen (who was booted as the federal candidate in a West Vancouver riding in 2008) has just announced his candidacy for the NDP leadership, making him the first out of the gate.

  2. I know the sub-sample margins of error must be rather large, but it is interesting that the BC Conservatives are at 19% in the north of BC. This is the region where BC Reform was able to win its 2 seats in 1996. Hopefully we won't have a repeat of that election where the NDP was able to form a majority government with a smaller share of the popular vote than the BC Liberals due to vote-splitting on the centre-right.

  3. Isnt the next election in 2013?

    And HST is ridiculous. Why do I need to pay tax on postage stamps?

  4. It would appear that there is to be more fighting within the BC NDP.

    Larsen announced his candidacy.... which was promptly followed by the party president saying that he is ineligible.... and then they go back and forth a couple more times.

  5. juvanya, there is a decent chance that the new Premier will call a new election this year.

  6. "And HST is ridiculous. Why do I need to pay tax on postage stamps?"

    I don't understand,... Why would/should there be a difference between postage stamps and any other product??

    Taxes need to come down in general. But I don't see why specific products should get a complete break when there is so many other taxes that should be reduced too.

  7. @Barcs,
    How can you tax a government product? Thats like a tax on a tax. The money is already going to the government and they want more? In the US, you pay for a stamp and thats it.

    I also looked and saw that VIA Rail has HST or at least GST. Isnt VIA a government corporation? Amtrak doesnt charge sales tax. Of course we dont have a national sales tax, so maybe thats it, but even train tickets where I live in NJ dont charge the 7% sales tax. Its already a government entity.

  8. juvanya paying tax on a "government product" is not a tax on a tax.

    The entire idea of user fees for a service is that they do not come out of government revenue - ie. the service is fully or partially self sufficient.

    Giving an HST break for postage stamps would be a SUBSIDY to YOU from US.

    Gov't pays HST on their trucks, their equipment, their entire postage operation. Costs should be passed on to you in form of HST.

    Postage stamps should be taxed just like everything else. They don't deserve a special tax break.


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