Monday, December 20, 2010

November Polling Averages

A little late, but let's take a look at November's polling. Seven national polls were released during this month (one fewer as last month), totaling about 10,230 interviews. Here are the results we get at the national level, with the difference from last month's average in brackets.

Conservatives - 33.3% (-0.4)
Liberals - 28.2% (-0.4)
New Democrats - 17.2% (+1.2)
Bloc Québécois - 9.6% (-0.2)
Greens - 9.6% (+0.1)
Others - 2.4% (+0.8)

The Conservatives have dropped back to exactly 1 in 3 support, but that is simply a reversal of October's gains. The Liberals, meanwhile, are down 1.4 points since September, while the NDP is up two points over that time frame.

The seat projection for these results is as follows, with the difference from last month in brackets:

Conservatives - 128 (-2)
Liberals - 93 (-2)
Bloc Québécois - 53 (-1)
New Democrats - 34 (+5)
Greens - 0 (unchanged)

The Conservatives lose two seats after three months of gains, while the NDP has gained eight seats since September.The regional results, with difference from last month in brackets:

BRITISH COLUMBIA (7 polls - about 880 people)

Conservatives - 31.8% (+0.4)
New Democrats - 27.7% (unchanged)
Liberals - 23.7% (+0.6)
Greens - 13.9% (-1.2)
Others - 2.9%

The Conservatives have reversed, slightly, a downhill trend in the province. The New Democrats are steady. The Liberals, meanwhile, are back up after losing almost three points in October. The Greens are down after two months of gains. The Conservatives would win 16 seats (unchanged from last month), while the New Democrats would win 11 and the Liberals nine, also unchanged.

ALBERTA (6 polls - about 740 people)

Conservatives - 58.1% (+0.3)
Liberals - 20.4% (+1.6)
New Democrats - 9.8% (-1.4)
Greens - 8.9% (-0.3)
Others - 2.8%

The Conservatives increase their lead after losing ground in October, while the Liberals replace their previous month's losses at the expense of the NDP. The Greens have now lost 2.4 points over the last three months. The Conservatives would win 27 seats (unchanged), while the Liberals would win one (unchanged).

PRAIRIES (6 polls - about 530 people)

Conservatives - 42.8% (-3.8)
New Democrats - 23.7% (+4.8)
Liberals - 22.3% (-0.5)
Greens - 9.4% (+0.9)
Others - 1.8%

The Conservatives drop big in the region, while the Liberals take a more modest step backwards. The New Democrats have taken advantage, reversing the losses they had suffered in September and October. The Conservative drop one seat and win 20, while the Liberals and New Democrats win four each, an increase of one for the NDP.

ONTARIO (7 polls - about 3,430 people)

Conservatives - 36.8% (-1.5)
Liberals - 34.5% (-1.1)
New Democrats - 16.9% (+1.3)
Greens - 9.8% (+0.6)
Others - 2.0%

The Conservatives drop after two months of gains, while the Liberals have lost 1.1 points for the second consecutive month. Conversely, the NDP has gained 1.3 points for two months straight. The Conservatives would win 49 seats (-2), the Liberals would win 43 (-1), and the NDP 14 (+3).

QUEBEC (8 polls - about 3,950 people)

Bloc Québécois - 38.4% (-1.1)
Liberals - 22.6% (-0.8)
Conservatives - 16.4% (+1.9)
New Democrats - 13.3% (+1.8)
Greens - 7.5% (-1.0)
Others - 1.8%

The Bloc has erased their gains of October, while the Liberals have lost 1.5 points since September. The Conservative gain still puts them below their September numbers. The Bloc would win 53 seats (-1), while the Liberals would win 15 (unchanged), the Conservatives would win six (+1), and the New Democrats one (unchanged).

ATLANTIC CANADA (7 polls - about 640 people)

Liberals - 35.8% (-3.1)
Conservatives - 30.5% (-2.9)
New Democrats - 22.9% (+3.2)
Greens - 9.6% (+3.2)
Others - 1.2%

After two months of gains, the Conservatives take a step backwards. But the Liberals do as well. The beneficiary appears to be the NDP, but also the Greens. The Liberals would win 19 seats (-1), the Conservatives nine (unchanged), and the NDP four (+1).

In terms of net gains or losses in the six regions, the Conservatives come out last with a net loss of 5.6 points. Losing ground in Ontario is especially problematic, but they seem to have rectified that so far in December. Ditto for Atlantic Canada.

Next are the Liberals, who had a net loss of 3.3 points. Dropping in Ontario and Quebec, two provinces in which they need to do better, is disastrous.

Then we have the Bloc, who lost 1.1 points in Quebec. They still hold a huge lead, however.

On the winning side of the ledger, we have the Green Party with a net gain of 2.2 points. They were down in British Columbia, however.

And November's winner has to be the New Democrats, with a net gain of 9.7 points. gains came in the Prairies, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. All good spots for them.


  1. So in essence we have the Tories and the Coalition tied.

    Somebody sure isn't getting traction !

  2. @Peter, this will obviously have changed once the big December polls are averaged... Eric's already incorporated some of them in his projection and it shows in the numbers.

    @Eric, I find your typo of 'leger' vs. 'ledger' very funny as it's probably just due to habit from typing the name of the polling firm.


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