Monday, December 13, 2010

Léger finds ADQ growth provincially and stability among the federal parties

Léger Marketing released some provincial and federal polls today for Quebec. We'll go over both, but start at the provincial level, where there has been some movement.Compared to Léger's last provincial poll taken in early November, the Parti Québécois has dropped only one point, and still leads with 36%. The Liberals are down three points to 30%, while the Action Démocratique du Québec has taken the biggest step forward, gaining four points. They now stand at 15% support.

Québec Solidaire and the Greens are up one point apiece, to 9% and 7% respectively.

The Parti Québécois leads among francophones with 43%, down one point from early November. The Liberals have dropped five points to 20% in this demographic, while the ADQ is up five to 17%.

Among non-francophones, the Liberals dominate with 66%, up two points. The Greens are second with 12%, up three, while the Parti Québécois and ADQ are tied for third with 8%. That is steady for the PQ, but a gain of two points for the ADQ.

Regionally, the Liberals lead in and around Montreal with 35%, down one point. The Parti Québécois is up a point to 32%, while the ADQ is steady at 11%.

In and around Quebec City, the Parti Québécois has gained five points and leads with 37%, followed by the ADQ at 28% (+9) and the Liberals at 20% (-8).

Outside of these two cities, the Parti Québécois leads with 40%, down four points from early November. The Liberals have dropped three points to 26%, while the ADQ has taken some big strides forward with an eight-point gain. They now stand at 17%.

Among those with an opinion of who would make the best premier, Pauline Marois came out on top with 35% while Jean Charest was at 29%. Those results are virtually equal to their parties' support. Gérard Deltell of the ADQ, however, is at 19%, four points more than his party, and Amir Khadir of Québec Solidaire is at 16%, five points more than his party.

With this poll, the Parti Québécois would win 72 seats, three more than as a result of Léger's last poll. The Liberals would win 38 seats, 11 fewer, while the ADQ would win 13, eight more. Québec Solidaire would win two seats, unchanged from early November.

So, the PQ is still well out in front while the Liberals are trailing, bleeding support to some of the second and third tier parties. The ADQ seems to be benefiting the most, and Deltell could be capable of bringing the party back to the usual support Mario Dumont could command.

Now, to federal politics. Léger's poll doesn't show much change from last time, but that in and of itself is the most significant aspect.The Bloc Québécois has dropped two points and leads with 34%, a low result for them. The Liberals have dropped one point to 21%, joining the New Democrats who have remained stable.

That the NDP is at 21%, now tied for second in the province, was a remarkable result in early November. It is even more remarkable that the party is still at that high level of support.

The Conservatives are up one to 19%, and the Greens are up two to 5%.

The Bloc Québécois leads among francophones with 42%, down one point from Léger's last poll. The New Democrats are second with 22%, up two, while the Conservatives are at 18%, up three points. The Liberals have dropped four points among francophones to only 14%.

Among non-francophones, the Liberals have gained nine points and lead with 47%. The Conservatives are down eight to 22% and the New Democrats are down five to 17%.

In and around Montreal, the Bloc Québécois has gained four points and leads with 31%. The Liberals are up one to 28%, while the NDP is down five to 20%.

The Bloc Québécois has regained the lead in and around Quebec City with a nine point jump. They now lead with 36%. The Conservatives are down two to 25%, while the NDP is up one to 22%.

Outside of the province's two biggest cities, the Bloc Québécois leads with 38%, down 13 points. The NDP is next with 21%, up seven, while the Conservatives are up 10 points to 20%.

This poll would result in 49 Bloc Québécois seats (two fewer than last time), 15 Liberals, nine Conservatives, and two New Democrats. That is a two-seat gain for the Tories from Léger's previous poll.

While being at 21% is good news for the NDP, their support is too evenly spread out to turn that support into many seats.

The Bloc has high support everywhere, but particularly in the francophone parts of the province. The Liberals are strong in Montreal and particularly among anglophones, guaranteeing them a good chunk of seats. The Conservatives have their pocket of strength in Quebec City and surrounding areas.

The NDP, on the other hand, has almost even support among francophones and anglophones, and is at about 21% in all parts of Quebec. That might put them in a good position to finish a strong third or weak second in most of the province, but it won't put them over the top in many places.

10 comments:

  1. If the NDP vote in Quebec almost doubles to 21% and the BQ vote drops to 34% - the NDP will DEFINITELY get more than 2 seats in the province. I can't say which seats those will be - but it is a virtual certainty. According to the "cube" model - 21% in a four way race will yield 11 seats.

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  2. The BQ tends to get the most out of their votes when someone from the main three federal parties says something dumb (Cons) or does something dumb (Liberals).

    So, if the federal parties can completely ignore the BQ leading up to, and including, the next election, we might see things start shifting away from the BQ. It would take a few elections, provided everyone agrees to just ignore them, but it can be done.

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  3. Question: Is the bar at the bottom of the first graph the current poll result or November's?

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  4. The bar at the bottom is the current poll result.

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  5. DL,
    According to the "cube" model - 21% in a four way race will yield 11 seats.

    There are almost no 3- or 4-way races in any area of Quebec. The Bloc has a 20% lead among francophones, which means they will win virtually every seat where francophones are the large majority (well over half of Quebec's ridings). The Conservatives are not competitive in Montreal and the Liberals are generally not competitive outside of Montreal.

    The only ridings where 3-or 4-way races are possible are those few that have significant but not overwhelming non-francophone populations, i.e., central Montreal and one or two ridings in the Eastern Townships and Gatineau area. There just aren't enough of those ridings for the NDP to win a lot of seats even if they did manage to get 20% of the vote.

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  6. It's the same problem that the Greens have nationally. Bump them up to 20% and they still might only win a handful of seats.

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  7. The thing is that we know from past experience that when a party's popular vote rises from a low level to an intermediate level - such as the NDP going from 12% to 21% - invariably it is never going to be a perfectly even rise across all 75 ridings - there will be concentrations here and there. The Tories took 8% in Quebec and 24% in Quebec in 2006 - and yet I think that just about any seat projection model for 2006 that had Tory support in the low 20s would have had them at 1 seat - maybe - because Tory support was no consistently low across Quebec in '04. I think that in '04 Josee Verner was somewhat close and otherwise - Tories were no where. Even in Beauce their support in '04 was almost non-existent.

    I think that the logical places where you would see the NDP pick up seats IF (and I acknowledge that its a big "if")they actually took over 20% of the popular vote in Quebec would be in the Outaouais region where you have four way races in places like Gatineau, Hull-Aylmer and even Pontiac - plus one or two ridings in central Montreal...and then once you get beyond that - its all a matter of who runs. If some high profile Cree ran in Abitibi-James Bay - all of a sudden that seat could be in play.

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  8. DL,

    You seem to underestimate the hurdle that can sometimes be required to win seats.

    In 2000, the Canadian Alliance received 23.6% of the popular vote in Ontario but won only 2 ridings in that province (out of 103).

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  9. "In 2000, the Canadian Alliance received 23.6% of the popular vote in Ontario but won only 2 ridings in that province (out of 103)."

    There is a big difference between having 23% of the vote when the leading party has 51% and having 21% of the vote when the leading party has only 34%.

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  10. You should think of the Bloc leading with 42%, since the anglophone ridings aren't really a factor.

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