Wednesday, September 30, 2009

New CROP Quebec Poll: 7-pt Bloc Lead

CROP has released a new poll this morning, reported on by La Presse. We don't have all of the details of this poll yet, and in the past CROP has been extraordinarily slow in uploading their polling data, if they do it at all. But last time in August they released their polling data shortly after the articles in La Presse, so I remain hopeful we'll have all the details before the end of the week.

The poll was taken between September 17 and September 27 and involved 1,000 Quebecers. The result:

Bloc Quebecois - 33%
Liberals - 26%
Conservatives - 21%
New Democrats - 13%
Greens - unknown, but 7% remains

This is a good result for the Tories, putting them back in their 2008 election result. That got them 10 seats, which would be good for them. The 26% for the Liberals is low, especially considering this poll is from CROP. The 33% for the Bloc marks a 3-point gain from CROP's poll in August, while 13% for the NDP is decent.

As to who would make the best Prime Minister, 28% chose Michael Ignatieff while Jack Layton and Stephen Harper were tied at 23%. The results for Ignatieff and Harper are similar to their parties, while Layton's over-achievement likely comes from Bloc voters. With their social democratic policies and support for the extension of the Charter of the French Language to federally regulated organisations, the two parties are the most similar.

The francophone vote remains in the hands of the Bloc. They have 39% of that vote, compared to 22% for the Liberals and 20% for the Conservatives. In Quebec City, likely to be the most ferocious battle in the province, the Bloc and Liberals lead with 26% with the Conservatives behind by one point.

This poll confirms some trends we've seen in Quebec, namely that the Liberals have dropped below the 30% mark and that the Conservatives are back to relative respectability.

At the provincial level, the Liberals lead with 43% with the Parti Quebecois in second at 35%. The ADQ (7%), Quebec Solidaire (6%), and Greens (8%) are statistically tied. Support for sovereignty is at 37%, sovereignty-association at 42%.

When CROP releases the details of the poll, I'll update.