Wednesday, September 30, 2009

New CROP Quebec Poll: 7-pt Bloc Lead

CROP has released a new poll this morning, reported on by La Presse. We don't have all of the details of this poll yet, and in the past CROP has been extraordinarily slow in uploading their polling data, if they do it at all. But last time in August they released their polling data shortly after the articles in La Presse, so I remain hopeful we'll have all the details before the end of the week.

The poll was taken between September 17 and September 27 and involved 1,000 Quebecers. The result:

Bloc Quebecois - 33%
Liberals - 26%
Conservatives - 21%
New Democrats - 13%
Greens - unknown, but 7% remains

This is a good result for the Tories, putting them back in their 2008 election result. That got them 10 seats, which would be good for them. The 26% for the Liberals is low, especially considering this poll is from CROP. The 33% for the Bloc marks a 3-point gain from CROP's poll in August, while 13% for the NDP is decent.

As to who would make the best Prime Minister, 28% chose Michael Ignatieff while Jack Layton and Stephen Harper were tied at 23%. The results for Ignatieff and Harper are similar to their parties, while Layton's over-achievement likely comes from Bloc voters. With their social democratic policies and support for the extension of the Charter of the French Language to federally regulated organisations, the two parties are the most similar.

The francophone vote remains in the hands of the Bloc. They have 39% of that vote, compared to 22% for the Liberals and 20% for the Conservatives. In Quebec City, likely to be the most ferocious battle in the province, the Bloc and Liberals lead with 26% with the Conservatives behind by one point.

This poll confirms some trends we've seen in Quebec, namely that the Liberals have dropped below the 30% mark and that the Conservatives are back to relative respectability.

At the provincial level, the Liberals lead with 43% with the Parti Quebecois in second at 35%. The ADQ (7%), Quebec Solidaire (6%), and Greens (8%) are statistically tied. Support for sovereignty is at 37%, sovereignty-association at 42%.

When CROP releases the details of the poll, I'll update.

13 comments:

  1. One thing to keep in mind that this poll was in field Sept. 17 to 27. That means that the first half of the poll was done before the Outremont brouhaha got into the news and all of it was completed before the Coderre resignation and all the screaming negative headlines about how Iggy is trying to run Quebec out of Toronto. Things could still get worse for the Liberals and they could find themselves back at election 2008 levels and maybe pick up Ahuntsic and that's about it. If we have byelections this fall in Hochelaga and Montmagny etc...it will be a good gauge.

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  2. That's the fun of politics and polls. By the time a poll is released, things have changed and we have to wait until the next poll to see the result.

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  3. BC Voice of Reason30 September, 2009 11:19

    So this somewhat accurate and respected Quebec poll combined with the last 5-6 national polls would put Harper over the 154 line?

    As Quebec flip flops yet again and rejects the Liberals for the CPC we will not see the hypothetical situation where there is a Majority government with minimal representation from Quebec.

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  4. -- "So this somewhat accurate and respected Quebec poll combined with the last 5-6 national polls would put Harper over the 154 line?"

    No, they are still only between about 17% and 21%, which gives them around 6-10 seats. They need more than that if they can't do better in British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada.

    -- "As Quebec flip flops yet again and rejects the Liberals for the CPC"

    Let's not go that far. The Liberals are still doing very well, better than both their 2006 and 2008 electoral results in the province. I don't see anything that makes me believe Quebecers will go back to Harper.

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  5. But, if Liberal support just inches up a bit from the 23% they got last time to 26% and the BQ drops a few more points and the NDP stays steady, by my calculation, it would mean that the Liberals would pick up about 4 seats in Quebec and Outremont would NOT be one of them,

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  6. I agree, the NDP are still the favourites to keep Outremont. We haven't seen the NDP vote disappear and the recent trouble in the riding won't help.

    But Martin Cauchon still has a good chance of taking the riding, since he's held it before.

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  7. Let's see if Cauchon can even win the Liberal nomination against the doctor from Togo who has apparently signed up 100s of members. Cauchon has never had to actually campaign before. Every election he's ever won was handed to him on a silver platter. (He must be used to silver platters having once been "butler" to the Desmarais family)

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  8. The Desmarais have had plenty of politicians in their employ.

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  9. This is a good result for the Conservatives.

    However, the Bloc's support is very efficiently spread in Quebec and the Conservatives don't seem to have much prospect of dramatically increasing their seat count in that province.

    If you look back to the 2006 election, the Conservatives then received 24.6% of the vote in Quebec but still only won 10 ridings.

    Moreover, in that same election, there were not even many ridings that the Tories lost by a narrow margin.

    Polling numbers like this are good for the Conservatives in that it increases the odds of them holding on to all or almost all of their existing Quebec seats.

    But to hope for gains beyond maybe 2 or 3 would require substantially higher polling numbers (say, 30+ per cent)

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  10. The Liberals have dropped 8% in the last two months and the Tories have gone up 8% in two months, before Coderre resigned. If the Liberals could pick up two seats in Quebec with those numbers they'd be lucky. The trends are much more important than the raw numbers and Ignatieff is tanking in the whole country. All the recent polls show Harper very close to a majority with the wind at his back. I this keeps up for a few more weeks, they will manufacture their own defeat and we will probably have a conservative majority government.

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  11. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  12. DL, Eric,

    I saw Joel Dennis Bellevance (spelling?) on CTV's Power Play discussing polling that was going to run that showed the Liberals dropping in Quebec after the Outremont blow up.

    So its safe to say that the Liberal numbers could actually be LOWER because they're being held up by polling from before the incident.

    Then again, these things usually make a blip and things bounce back so unless the NDP decided to go crazy and vote non-confidence then it doesn't really matter.

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  13. Bellavance was referring to the CROP poll which was done for his newspaper. The poll catures the impact of the Outremont controversy, but NOT any impact from the Coderre resignation

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