Sunday, September 6, 2009

Monthly Polling: August

Now it's time to look at the polling average over the month of August. Nine national polls were taken during this month, totalling about 15,500 interviews. Here are the results we get at the national level, with the difference from last month's average in brackets.

Conservatives - 33.6% (+0.2)
Liberals - 31.1% (-1.2)
New Democrats - 16.1% (+0.4)
Greens - 9.8% (+1.1)
Bloc Quebecois - 9.0% (-0.6)

The Conservatives maintained their strength, and even built a little on it. The Liberals, however, had another big loss. Nevertheless, the two parties are still incredibly close. The NDP gain of almost half-a-point is a good sign for them, and the gain of the Greens is also positive. The seat projection for these results is as follows, with the difference from last month in brackets:

Conservatives - 125 (+1)
Liberals - 109 (-2)
Bloc Quebecois - 49 (-1)
New Democrats - 25 (+2)
Greens - 0 (unchanged)

The Liberals and Conservatives trade seats, do not change much, but the Tories do open up their seat lead a little bit. thing, however. The Bloc loses one seat but the NDP are up two.
The regional results, with difference from last month in brackets:

BRITISH COLUMBIA (eight polls - about 1,720 people)

Conservatives - 33.8% (-4.0)
Liberals - 26.9% (-1.0)
New Democrats - 24.7% (+3.3)
Greens - 14.4% (+2.7)

ALBERTA (seven polls - about 1,110 people)

Conservatives - 61.4% (+2.5)
Liberals - 17.5% (-2.2)
New Democrats - 11.3% (+0.1)
Greens - 9.5% (-0.1)

PRAIRIES (seven polls - about 830 people)

Conservatives - 47.8% (+0.4)
Liberals - 22.6% (+1.1)
New Democrats - 22.6% (+1.4)
Greens - 6.7% (-1.6)

ONTARIO (nine polls - about 5,370 people)

Liberals - 37.5% (-1.1)
Conservatives - 36.5% (unchanged)
New Democrats - 14.2% (-0.7)
Greens - 11.3% (+1.7)

QUEBEC (ten polls - about 4,110 people)

Bloc Quebecois - 36.2% (-0.9)
Liberals - 29.3% (-1.4)
Conservatives - 15.9% (+0.4)
New Democrats - 11.5% (+1.8)
Greens - 7.2% (+0.5)

ATLANTIC CANADA (eight polls - about 990 people)

Liberals - 37.1% (-0.1)
Conservatives - 27.5% (-2.1)
New Democrats - 27.1% (-0.5)
Greens - 7.7% (+3.1)

The NDP and the Greens had the best month, each increasing their vote share in four regions. The NDP's 3.3-point gain in British Columbia is especially important, but the 0.7-point loss in Ontario is a problem. The Greens gained almost three points in British Columbia, good news for Elizabeth May.

The Conservatives had a good month, increasing their vote share in three regions and staying unchanged in one. Their biggest point gain comes in Alberta, however, which doesn't help them much. Their 4-point loss in British Columbia, however, is a big problem.

The Liberals did not have a good month, losing support in five regions. However, their losses were modest so it isn't too much cause for concern.

Finally, the Bloc lost about a point in Quebec. This blow is softened by the fact that the Liberals lost a little more and the gain went mostly to the NDP.


  1. The results (with regional break-downs) of the Liberal's internal Pollara poll are here:

  2. Thanks! But it references "Liberal sources" rather than the actual polling data, so I'm going to leave it be.

  3. How does the Inside Polling numbers leaked compared to your polling results with the 3000 sample size?

    I am curious if your algorithm would change and show a loss of the AB seat and some more losses in the 905.

    What was the polling number in September 2008 for 905 Liberals vs 2009


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