Saturday, September 26, 2009

More on the AR Poll

Aside from giving the NDP three more points, this Angus-Reid poll is a virtual mirror of the EKOS poll released on Thursday. However, it also isn't much different from an Angus-Reid poll taken between September 11 and September 13. That poll had the Conservatives at 36%, the Liberals at 29%, and the NDP at 17%.

Regionally, there are a few interesting spots. British Columbia isn't one of them, as the results are within what we've seen lately. The Conservatives lead at 37%, which is weak for them, with the Liberals (26%) and NDP (23%) behind. The Greens posted 14%, a good result.

Alberta has the Liberals and NDP at strong 18% and 17% results, respectively. The Tories lead with 61%. The Prairies is another one within the norm, with the Conservatives at 47%, the Liberals at 22%, and the NDP at 18%.

Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada are of interest, however. In Ontario, the Conservatives have an amazing 14-point lead. They're at 44%, with the Liberals at 30%. This puts the Tories two points higher than the EKOS poll, not out of the ordinary, but the Liberals five points lower. The NDP are at 15% and the Greens 10%.

In Quebec, the Bloc leads with 35%, slightly down. The Liberals are at 26%, also slightly down. The Conservatives had 21%, one of their highest results since the election - and it actually matches their 2008 election result. The NDP are relatively strong as well at 12%.

In Atlantic Canada, the small sample size yielded a 57% result for the Liberals. The Tories are at 22% and the NDP at 21%, which isn't exactly out of the ordinary. The 1% result for the Greens, however, is. The Liberals are clearly ahead in Atlantic Canada, though, so we can just leave it at that.

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 147
Liberals - 89
Bloc Quebecois - 47
New Democrats - 25

Suffice to say, 37% in British Columbia, 21% in Quebec, and 22% in Atlantic Canada is not enough to give the Tories a majority - but they're close.

The poll also had leadership questions. On who would make the best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper led with 27%, followed by Michael Ignatieff at 16% and Jack Layton at 12%. "None of these" got 22%. This pushes Harper's "Best PM" number on this site down one to 30%. Ignatieff is down three to 19% and Layton down one to 12%.

Harper got his best number in Alberta (38%) and his worst in Quebec (16%). Ignatieff's best came in Atlantic Canada (34%) and his worst in the Prairies (10%). Layton's best was 17% in British Columbia and Quebec, his worst was in Ontario (8%).

On the economy, Harper was considered best to manage it with 33%. Ignatieff was second with 23% and Layton third with 9%. Gilles Duceppe got 6%.

On the environment, Layton got 27% and Harper and Ignatieff got 16%. On health care, it was Harper at 23%, Layton at 22%, and Ignatieff at 16%. On crime, Harper was well ahead at 38% to Ignatieff's 12% and Layton's 10%.

Ignatieff, however, gets top marks for foreign affairs. This is perhaps a result of his advertisements talking about India and China and his recent foreign policy speech. He received 30% on this issue, compared to Harper at 28% and Layton at 6%.

So, all in all, nothing to make the Liberals want to go to the polls. But election campaigns can change everything, as we saw in 2005-2006.