Tuesday, September 15, 2009

New HD Poll: 4% Conservative Lead

Harris-Decima has released a new poll, and thanks to the Toronto Star for publishing the results in full.

The poll was taken between September 3 and September 13 and involved just over 2,000 respondents. This is part of a 'rolling poll', as the previous HD poll was taken between August 27 and September 6. For that reason, this poll will be reduced in weight by 36% since part of it has already been represented in the model.

The national results:

Conservatives - 34%
Liberals - 30%
New Democrats - 15%
Greens - 10%
Bloc Quebecois 9%

Once again, Harris-Decima provides us with a poll to counter a suspicious Ipsos-Reid poll. I wonder what kind of inter-pollster rivalries exist.

In British Columbia, the Tories have a solid lead with 36%. The Liberals and NDP are tied at 23% and the Greens have a strong 17%. Alberta is as you'd expect, but in the Prairies the Tories are at 45% and the NDP is second at 35%, with the Liberals in third at 18%. That is a very strong result for the NDP.

In Ontario, the Tories don't have the 10-point lead Ipsos-Reid gave them. Instead, the Liberals are ahead three points, 38% to 35%. The NDP is alright at 15%.

In Quebec, the Bloc is doing well with 39%. The Liberals are doing good too, with 30%. The Conservatives are at 16% but the NDP has fallen to 7%, just one point above the Greens. How much is Thomas Mulcair worth to the NDP?

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have dropped to 32% with the Tories at 30% and the NDP at 24%.

This poll would give the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 126
Liberals - 104
Bloc Quebecois - 51
New Democrats - 27

So, something similar to the 2006 result. Significantly, the Liberals and the NDP could out-vote the Tories.

9 comments:

  1. Re: inter-pollster rivalries. Well, an awful lot of today's big pollsters at one point worked for Angus Reid. And they all seem to disdain his methods.

    I met Michael Marzolini about a decade ago and he told me that they had a rule in-house: if an analyst ended up with the same results as Reid they were to throw them out because they were obviously wrong.

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  2. Huh. And they were the closest pollsters in both the Canadian and Quebec elections last year.

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  3. I wonder if Marzolini is referring to Ipsos-Reid or Angus Reid?

    In any case, I think that the key number after the election is whether the Liberal+NDP seat count exceeds the Tory seat count. If that happens, then I think that there is a very strong chance that the Liberals would form a minority government with some sort of accord with the NDP.

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  4. Which, even if they won fewer seats, might be a better position for the NDP to be in.

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  5. The full details and methodology for the HD poll can be found here.

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  6. No, that is the poll that was taken last week. They're a little slow with the updating.

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  7. BC Voice of Reason15 September, 2009 17:24

    Eric... I love your site and think you provide as unbiased presentaion of the poll results as exists.

    What is with "Once again, Harris-Decima provides us with a poll to counter a suspicious Ipsos-Reid poll." ?

    Ipso-Reid , according to your bias research favour the CPC by 3% and goes -.3 for the Liberals.

    the Harris decima boys are -2.5 for the CPC and -1 for the Libs.

    So this 4 % spread real is more like 5.5% and the 9 spread in the I-R poll is 5.8% so basically with your research these polls are telling us the exact same thing and are not out-liers.


    The rolling H-D poll contains 1/3 if the data taken prior to Ignatieff crossing the Rubicon to take on the Holy Harper Empire.

    There was no trend data provided with the H-D poll. I think that the H-D poll results are worse news for the Libs than the IR poll.

    The last H-d Poll you have in your stats tables had the Liberals with a 35-31 lead. Way back in June.

    I hope you are not starting to spin your results.

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  8. Not at all. Just that no one has shown such a spread as IR, and the one before it was even larger. And on both occasions we received a poll on the same day with very different results.

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  9. This was 1998 so Marzolini was referring to the old Angus Reid before he sold out to Ipsos.

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