Harris-Decima has released a new poll, and thanks to the Toronto Star for publishing the results in full.
The poll was taken between September 3 and September 13 and involved just over 2,000 respondents. This is part of a 'rolling poll', as the previous HD poll was taken between August 27 and September 6. For that reason, this poll will be reduced in weight by 36% since part of it has already been represented in the model.
The national results:
Conservatives - 34%
Liberals - 30%
New Democrats - 15%
Greens - 10%
Bloc Quebecois 9%
Once again, Harris-Decima provides us with a poll to counter a suspicious Ipsos-Reid poll. I wonder what kind of inter-pollster rivalries exist.
In British Columbia, the Tories have a solid lead with 36%. The Liberals and NDP are tied at 23% and the Greens have a strong 17%. Alberta is as you'd expect, but in the Prairies the Tories are at 45% and the NDP is second at 35%, with the Liberals in third at 18%. That is a very strong result for the NDP.
In Ontario, the Tories don't have the 10-point lead Ipsos-Reid gave them. Instead, the Liberals are ahead three points, 38% to 35%. The NDP is alright at 15%.
In Quebec, the Bloc is doing well with 39%. The Liberals are doing good too, with 30%. The Conservatives are at 16% but the NDP has fallen to 7%, just one point above the Greens. How much is Thomas Mulcair worth to the NDP?
In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have dropped to 32% with the Tories at 30% and the NDP at 24%.
This poll would give the following seat totals:
Conservatives - 126
Liberals - 104
Bloc Quebecois - 51
New Democrats - 27
So, something similar to the 2006 result. Significantly, the Liberals and the NDP could out-vote the Tories.