Thursday, September 17, 2009

New Ekos Poll: 5.2-point Conservative Lead

EKOS has released its weekly poll, taken between September 9 and September 15 and involving 3,164 Canadians.

The result:

Conservatives - 35.1%
Liberals - 29.9%
New Democrats - 16.5%
Bloc Quebecois - 9.6%
Greens - 9.0%

With the consistency of EKOS polling over the summer, and the size of this poll, I think we can now definitively say that the Tories have opened up a substantial lead over the Liberals. The Liberals have been stuck at about 30% now for weeks, while the Conservatives are slowly inching upwards. They're still far out of majority territory, however. This NDP result is alright as well.

Regionally, the Tories are still struggling to pull away in British Columbia. They lead with 36%, but the NDP (26.7%) and Liberals (25.0%) are still punching above their weight.

The result in Alberta and the Prairies is what you'd expect, but in Ontario the Conservatives are leading with 40.1%. The Liberals aren't exactly out of it, however, with 35.5%. The NDP is not at disaster level with 15.4%.

In Quebec, EKOS confirms the rebound of the Bloc Quebecois, who stand at 38.9%. The Liberals have faltered a little, with 27.1%. The Conservative and NDP results of 16.0% and 10.5%, respectively, are serviceable.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are back in front with 37.5%, followed by the Conservatives (28.7%) and NDP (28.2%).

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 132
Liberals - 98
Bloc Quebecois - 51
New Democrats - 27

Still no majority, and actually quite far out of it. The Liberals and Bloc could outvote the Tories, which would change the dynamic of the House of Commons somewhat.

This version of the polling data has two new interesting demographic breakdowns. The first is between those born in Canada and those who were not. The Tories lead among pure laine Canadians, 35.6% to 27.8%. The Liberals lead among immigrants, 40.0% to 27.8%. The other breakdown is between English and French. The Conservatives lead among anglophones, 40.8% to 31.0%. The Bloc Quebecois leads among Canadian francophones with 40.8% to the Liberal 26.4%.

For the other demographic breakdowns, the Tories lead among males (40.4% to 29.7), 25-44 year olds (30.2% to 28.9%), 45-64 (38.5% to 29.5%), 65+ (45.5% to 34.5%), high school graduates (33.5% to 24.9%), college graduates (41.7% to 24.5%), in Vancouver (37.8% to 28.6%) and Calgary (59.9% to 23.3%).

The Liberals lead the Tories among females (30.1% to 29.7%), those aged 25 or younger (26.9% to 22.1%), university graduates (37.4% to 30.5%), and in Toronto (39.7% to 36.7%). The Conservatives and Liberals are tied in Ottawa with 42.9% apiece.

The Bloc leads the Liberals 38.1% to 31.0% in Montreal.

As to what factor determines how people vote, party platforms received 42%, the party leader 22.3%, and the local candidate 16.9%. New Democrats and people in Ontario were those who banked most on the party platform, Liberals and Quebecers gave the highest results for the party leader, and Liberals and Atlantic Canadians were those most likely to consider the local candidate the determining factor.

As to the preferred potential outcome, 39.4% of Canadians want a Liberal government (14% minority, 25.4% majority) while 35.9% want a Conservative government (8.1% minority and 27.8% majority).

Looking at the third parties, 35.6% of New Democrats want a Liberal government of some kind compared to 13.6% who wanted a Conservative government. The breakdown is 33.6% to 17.6% among Bloc supporters and 35.9% to 13.1% among Greens. So Michael Ignatieff does have some room for growth.

Significantly, undecideds are split down the middle on what they want - 21.7% choosing a Liberal government and 21.3% choosing a Conservative government.

A projection update will be coming later today.