Wednesday, September 9, 2009

More Details from Nanos and Leger

The details of the Nanos poll are now available, and I was mistaken, it was taken between August 28 and September 2 (not 3).

When comparing the national results I posted about yesterday to Nanos's poll in early August, the Conservatives have risen an astounding 6.2 points, while the Liberals have lost 0.4. The NDP has also lost some ground - 3.9 points. The Greens are down 2.4.

In British Columbia, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied, at 34.3% and 35.6%, respectively. The NDP is at 22.8% and the Greens at a worrisome 7.3%. The results of the Liberals, NDP, and Greens, it should be said, is contrary to most of the polling we've seen lately.

Alberta and the Prairies are mixed together, so they can't be used in my model. Suffice to say, the Tories are up big and the NDP down big, with the Liberals remaining steady.

In Ontario, both the Tories and Liberals gained some ground, and are now very close at 38.5% and 39.6%, respectively. The NDP is at 15.6%, which compared to recent polling, isn't that bad.

In Quebec, the Bloc leads with 37.3% (representing a gain of about two points), the Liberals are at 32.5%, and the Tories at 19.3%. That last number is up 6.2 points, which is probably due more to the smaller polling size in this province. The NDP, at 8.9%, would be in trouble.

Finally, in Atlantic Canada the margin of error really comes into play, as the Conservatives have gained 10.5 points to lead with 42%. The Liberals are second, at 39.3%, and the NDP have lost 10.5 points to fall to 17.2%. With only 72 respondents, we'll chalk these numbers up to the MOE.

Because of the polling in the "Prairies", I can't provide an official seat projection for this one poll. But using the current projection to fill in Alberta and the Prairies, we get:

Conservatives - 132
Liberals - 109
Bloc Quebecois - 48
New Democrats - 19

Now, Léger Marketing has also released their polling data from last week. Of note for us is the breakdown of support in the Montreal region:

Liberals - 34%
Bloc Quebecois - 32%
New Democrats - 17%
Conservatives - 13%
Greens - 3%

And in the Quebec City region:

Bloc Quebecois - 32%
Liberals - 29%
Conservatives - 24%
New Democrats - 14%
Greens - 1%

So, from this it is clear that the Liberals will pick up some seats in Montreal but that the Bloc will still be competitive. At 17%, the NDP could keep Outremont. As for Quebec City, the Bloc looks like it will pick up whatever the Tories lose, but that the Liberals will also have a chance to win a seat or two. The Conservatives are strong enough to keep some of their "strongholds", but are certainly in decline.

Also of note is by distributing the undecideds, we get 47% of Quebecers in favour of sovereignty vs. 53% against. For francophones, that's 56% for and 44% against.