Tuesday, September 15, 2009

No Election, This Week

The Bloc Quebecois has found enough good in the Conservative ways and means motion that will be introduced on Friday to support it. They particularly support the home renovation tax credit and the modest EI reforms.

So, now the NDP have an opportunity to not support the government here, which I wouldn't be surprised if they took. But it seems like there is enough in the EI reforms for them to support this motion on Friday as well.

That means the government will not fall on Friday, something that became clear yesterday when both the Bloc and NDP took on a relatively approving tone concerning the proposed EI reforms.

Since Parliament will not be sitting next week, it means the government will also remain in power through to September 28 at the earliest.

Sometime during that week or the following week (October 5 to 9), the Liberals are expected to bring forward a non-confidence motion. It seems likely that the Bloc Quebecois will support such a motion. The Bloc votes issue to issue, and so it is likely Gilles Duceppe will follow through on his statement yesterday that his party has no confidence in the Conservative government.

That leaves the NDP, and in three to four weeks time things can change radically. With the rhetoric flying in and outside the House of Commons, it would not surprise me one bit if the NDP supported the non-confidence motion in October.

Watch the polls over the following month, as they will probably have a big influence on whether the Bloc and NDP support the Liberals on that non-confidence motion.

Remember, the government falling on a non-confidence motion put forward by the Liberals at the end of September or beginning of October had been the original timeline for the downfall of this government ever since June.