Tuesday, September 8, 2009

New Nanos Poll: 4.1% Conservative Lead

Thanks to Far and Wide for finding this poll on Reuters. The poll was taken between August 28 and September 3, and involved 1,003 Canadians. Nanos will release it in full tomorrow, but for now we have the following national results:

Conservatives - 37.5%
Liberals - 33.4%
New Democrats - 14.8%
Bloc Quebecois - 9.7%
Greens - 4.6%

Strong result for the Conservatives, but also the Liberals. And with the NDP so low, the Liberals will be able to get a good number of seats with that 33.4%. Tory minority, no doubt, but with a strong Liberal opposition. The Bloc's 9.7% is relatively high, we'll have to wait and see what the regionals are. The 4.6% for the Greens is low, perhaps the result of the margin of error.

The NDP's polling results have been mostly bad of late. Now, an election can change everything and Jack Layton is a good campaigner, but you have to believe that if someone is going to side with the government in order to avoid an election, it will be the NDP. The Bloc has been positioning itself lately for an election and Gilles Duceppe himself has said he thinks it is inevitable.

Check back tomorrow for more details on the poll.


  1. I don't think it matters to the NDP whether they're at 14% or 20% in a couple of polls this week - when it comes to deciding whether to bring down the government or not.

    The Conservatives seem to WANT an election so it's not in their interest to make any concessions to any of the opposition parties - least of all the NDP. The Liberals can get away with propping up Harper in order to avoid an election they think they will do badly in. Liberal voters are very forgiving of that. The NDP would never be able to get away with propping up Harper in exchange for nothing.

    The NDP was at 14% or lower when the writ was dropped in 2008 and they ended up doing well in that election. I think that strategists in all the parties (NDP included) are assuming that in the end it will all boil down to what happens in the campaign and that the only certainty is that the final results will be quite different from what polls showed when the election was called.

  2. I can't find any comments how the NDP lose their only seat in AB and the Liberals gain it.

    Did you post the rational elsewehere?

    I don't understand how the NDP hold Muclair seat in Quebec if the same Liberal boost of 3-4% of national numbers is applied.

    The Liberals are not within 4% of the NDP in Edmonton.

  3. DL,

    The CPC must appear NOT wanting an election for political advantage.

    What party states they are acting on principle and not the Poll?

    What party has positive internal numbers leaked in Sudbury?

    The public will be reminded during the campaign who caused the election.

    The opposition will try to blame the government for NOT cooperating.

    The government will show their track record and Bills they have attempted.

    Who will the voters punish and believe?

    I am a betting man and I believe what most CPC believe. Don't trigger the election let the opposition explain to their supporters what CPC Bills were "evil, right wing neo con" uncanadian.

    Goodluck with smears against the Government track record.


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