Friday, September 25, 2009

Projection Update - CPC 128, LPC 105

Only one poll was released over the last week, but there has been a seat change in the projection anyway.The Conservatives have gained one seat from the Liberals in Ontario, and now stand at 128. The Liberals have dropped to 105, while the NDP and Bloc Quebecois remain steady at 25 and 50 seats, respectively.

The Conservatives have also gained 0.2 points nationally, with the Liberals, NDP, and Greens all losing 0.1 points. The Tories now hold a two point advantage over the Liberals, but for now the Liberals and the NDP can still out vote the Conservatives. But if the Peter Milliken returned as Speaker of the House, it would only be a one-seat plurality for those two opposition parties.

In British Columbia the Greens have gained 0.2 points while the Conservatives have lost 0.1 and the Liberals 0.2. The Conservatives hold an 11-point lead in the province, and stand at 36.9% to the Liberals' 26.1%, NDP's 24.6%, and Greens' 11.5%.

In Ontario the Tories have gained 0.2 points and the Greens have gained 0.1 points, while the NDP and Liberals have each lost 0.1 points. The gap between Stephen Harper's and Michael Ignatieff's parties has been reduced to 1.6 points, but the Liberals still have the edge at 38.1% to 36.5%. The NDP is at 15% and the Greens 10%.

In Quebec the Conservatives have gained 0.1 points while the Liberals and NDP have each lost 0.1. The Bloc has maintained itself at 37%, but the Liberals have dropped below 30% and now stand at 29.9%. The Conservatives are at 16.1%, the NDP 10.7%, and the Greens 6%.

There were no major movements in the non-battleground regions, but the biggest was a 0.2 point drop for the NDP in Atlantic Canada.

Hopefully we'll have some more polls this week so that we can confirm or refute the findings of the EKOS poll, specifically that the Conservative lead is now 5+ points and that the NDP have dropped disastrously below 15%.

8 comments:

  1. Looks like the NDP are probably going to lose that Quebec seat.

    Ignatieff just flip flopped and IS going to allow Cauchon to run in Outremont after all.

    http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090925/cauchon_liberals_090925/20090925?hub=Canada

    Does this put a damper on intraparty feuding?

    My guess is it just makes Ignatieff look weak and feeds into the speculation that Liberals everywhere are preparing for the next leadership campaign...

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  2. Interesting. Has this hurt the Liberals? Yes, any squabbling is damaging, and that squabble will certainly have gotten more media coverage than this settlement of the squabble will.

    But compared to letting this drag on with Cauchon unhappy would have been more damaging. So it's a two-steps-backward one-step-forward sort of thing.

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  3. Your numbers indicate a combined 130 seats for both the Grits and the NDP. I smell another coalition down the road...

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  4. I'm not sure Ignatieff wants to work with Layton, and I think a coalition is out of the question if the NDP and Liberals don't form a majority on their own.

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  5. Hey Eric,

    since it looks like we're not in for a fall election these by-elections will probably go ahead:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_by-elections,_2009

    October 13th is the latest Harper has to call the first one, although my guess is he'd bunch them together.

    Will you be able to do projections for these ?

    The Conservatives look like they'll have a real chance to win back Dawn Black's old riding from the NDP. Bill Casey's old riding will probably go back to the Conservatives as well.

    The two Quebec ridings look like they'll stay BQ but it will probably be a crucial test of Ignateiff's strength.

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  6. I would say the CONs chances in New West-Coquitlam as less than 50-50 of beating the NdP candidate... Not when there are Tory fingerprints all over the unpopular hst decision. They likely are a little ahead in Casey's seat, but the Grits will have a candidate that can compete, i'm told.

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  7. I'm not sure if I'll do projections, maybe, but I'll certainly cover those by-elections.

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  8. Rockfish, I really wouldn't count on the HST being an issue. Out here in BC all the blame is going to the provincial Liberals.

    Ontario seems to be a different story because Flaherty's riding is an Ontario one and he's been known to give the Ontario government suggestions - ex. lower the corporate tax rate, harmonize the sales tax.

    Nobody in BC is making the connection back to the finance minister and thus back to the Conservative party. Its just not happening.

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