Friday, September 25, 2009

Projection Update - CPC 128, LPC 105

Only one poll was released over the last week, but there has been a seat change in the projection anyway.The Conservatives have gained one seat from the Liberals in Ontario, and now stand at 128. The Liberals have dropped to 105, while the NDP and Bloc Quebecois remain steady at 25 and 50 seats, respectively.

The Conservatives have also gained 0.2 points nationally, with the Liberals, NDP, and Greens all losing 0.1 points. The Tories now hold a two point advantage over the Liberals, but for now the Liberals and the NDP can still out vote the Conservatives. But if the Peter Milliken returned as Speaker of the House, it would only be a one-seat plurality for those two opposition parties.

In British Columbia the Greens have gained 0.2 points while the Conservatives have lost 0.1 and the Liberals 0.2. The Conservatives hold an 11-point lead in the province, and stand at 36.9% to the Liberals' 26.1%, NDP's 24.6%, and Greens' 11.5%.

In Ontario the Tories have gained 0.2 points and the Greens have gained 0.1 points, while the NDP and Liberals have each lost 0.1 points. The gap between Stephen Harper's and Michael Ignatieff's parties has been reduced to 1.6 points, but the Liberals still have the edge at 38.1% to 36.5%. The NDP is at 15% and the Greens 10%.

In Quebec the Conservatives have gained 0.1 points while the Liberals and NDP have each lost 0.1. The Bloc has maintained itself at 37%, but the Liberals have dropped below 30% and now stand at 29.9%. The Conservatives are at 16.1%, the NDP 10.7%, and the Greens 6%.

There were no major movements in the non-battleground regions, but the biggest was a 0.2 point drop for the NDP in Atlantic Canada.

Hopefully we'll have some more polls this week so that we can confirm or refute the findings of the EKOS poll, specifically that the Conservative lead is now 5+ points and that the NDP have dropped disastrously below 15%.