Monday, September 7, 2009

New SC Poll: 5% Conservative Lead

A new poll from the Strategic Counsel has been released. It was taken between September 3 and September 6, and though the Globe and Mail doesn't mention it, we can assume it to be of 1,000 Canadians as it usually is.

The national results:

Conservatives - 35%
Liberals - 30%
New Democrats - 14%
Bloc Quebecois - 12%
Greens - 9%

This is well within the numbers we've been seeing. From the early-August poll from Strategic Counsel, this is a drop of two points by the Liberals and a gain of one for the Tories, well within the 3.1-point margin of error. The NDP result is low, and the Bloc result is very high.

Here's why. The results in Quebec:

Bloc Quebecois - 49%
Liberals - 23%
Conservatives - 16%
Greens - 7%
New Democrats - 6%

Now, this sort of Bloc lead doesn't jive with what we've seen in the polls lately. But it only marks a 5-point gain in terms of the last SC poll. The Liberals have dropped seven and the Tories have gained two.

In Ontario:

Conservatives - 41%
Liberals - 39%
New Democrats - 11%
Greens - 9%

This represents a four point gain for the Conservatives from the last poll and a one point drop for the Liberals. In effect, it's a tie. The 11% for the NDP is disastrous.

SC provides no Atlantic Canada details and groups the Prairies, Alberta, and British Columbia together as the "West". There, the Tories have 43% and the Liberals and NDP are in a dead-heat at 24% and 22%, respectively.

I can't translate this poll directly into seats because of the lack of regional data, but taking the current seat projection as the results for all regions except Ontario and Quebec, we get:

Conservatives - 133
Liberals - 100
Bloc Quebecois - 56
New Democrats - 19

The Tories would be happy with this result, but the Liberals and NDP would not. If Ignatieff merely increases the size of his caucus but remains in the opposition, he would like his party and the NDP to have more seats than Stephen Harper, at least to hold some bargaining power. The Bloc would be ecstatic with this result - their best ever.

By the way, I saw Inglourious Basterds last night and I loved it. The movie features extraordinarily graphic violence and plays hard and fast with the history, but it was thoroughly entertaining and thoroughly Tarantino.

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