Thursday, September 10, 2009

Weekly Projection Update - Conservatives by Fifteen

The projection has been updated to include the five national polls that were released this week, but the seat totals remain the same. There has, however, been a seat swap. The Liberals have taken one seat away from the Conservatives in British Columbia while the Conservatives have taken one seat away from the Liberals in Ontario.Nationally, the Conservatives have gained 0.2 points while the Greens have lost 0.1 points and the Liberals 0.2 points.

Regionally, changes were modest. The biggest change was in Alberta, where the Tories lost 0.6 points and the NDP gained 0.3. The NDP also gained 0.3 points in Quebec.

All other changes were equal to or less than 0.2 points. In the battleground regions, however, the Tories lost 0.2 points in British Columbia but gained 0.2 in Ontario and 0.1 in Quebec.

The Liberals gained 0.2 points in British Columbia, remained steady in Ontario, and lost 0.1 points in Quebec.

The NDP lost 0.1 points in British Columbia and 0.2 in Ontario.

The Greens gained 0.1 points in British Columbia, and lost 0.1 in Ontario and 0.2 in Quebec. The Bloc Quebecois remained unchanged in that province.

So, the status quo for this week, at least. The Liberals and NDP still outnumber the Tories, however, which would certainly change the dynamic of Parliament.