Thursday, September 10, 2009

Weekly Projection Update - Conservatives by Fifteen

The projection has been updated to include the five national polls that were released this week, but the seat totals remain the same. There has, however, been a seat swap. The Liberals have taken one seat away from the Conservatives in British Columbia while the Conservatives have taken one seat away from the Liberals in Ontario.Nationally, the Conservatives have gained 0.2 points while the Greens have lost 0.1 points and the Liberals 0.2 points.

Regionally, changes were modest. The biggest change was in Alberta, where the Tories lost 0.6 points and the NDP gained 0.3. The NDP also gained 0.3 points in Quebec.

All other changes were equal to or less than 0.2 points. In the battleground regions, however, the Tories lost 0.2 points in British Columbia but gained 0.2 in Ontario and 0.1 in Quebec.

The Liberals gained 0.2 points in British Columbia, remained steady in Ontario, and lost 0.1 points in Quebec.

The NDP lost 0.1 points in British Columbia and 0.2 in Ontario.

The Greens gained 0.1 points in British Columbia, and lost 0.1 in Ontario and 0.2 in Quebec. The Bloc Quebecois remained unchanged in that province.

So, the status quo for this week, at least. The Liberals and NDP still outnumber the Tories, however, which would certainly change the dynamic of Parliament.

9 comments:

  1. This might be a dumb question.. but isn't your popular vote projection a bit out of date, since the last poll you've got listed there at the bottom where your methodology is from August 4?

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  2. Ok.. I see what you're doing.. you've included the latest polls.. bu you're weighting them.. which is why I didn't see them initially.. I was looking at the bottom of the chart and failed to notice the recent polls highlighted in yellow.

    Interesting comparison between your projections and Democraticspace

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  3. No, the polls aren't entered in chronological order. Look again, and you'll see that the highlighted ones are all from the past week.

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  4. Ah, there you've got it. They aren't in any order whatsoever, actually. They're being put into the chart as replacements for older polls.

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  5. Got it.

    Interesting to see the different methodology used. You're weighting them.. and Greg over at Democratic Space is averaging them.

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  6. I think they need to be weighted, because a poll of 2,000 people is more accurate than a poll of 1,000. Plus you have to take some of the pollsters more seriously than others, who don't have as good a track record.

    I also include polls that go back several months, but they're weighted accordingly. Greg seems to be using the latest polls from each of the major polling firms.

    I'm following the lead of Nate Silver over at fivethirtyeight.com. I remember him including (lightly weighted) polls from several months before the presidential election to help him figure out who would win each state. I think that's a good idea because people do not tend to change their minds, en masse, very quickly. This system protects against momentary swings in public opinion and the MOEs.

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  7. I think your site is mighty fine Eric, but I must say I like the looks of Gregs numbers alot better.

    They give me more hope for this country's near future.

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  8. René Lévesque used to call majority governments in our system a dictatorship of the cabinet. I have to agree with him.

    Imagine a minority government where the parties worked together. Now that would be democratic!

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  9. Given this outcome, I think BQ would be the kingmakers. They could choose between either the Cons or Libs+NDP. Coalition aside, the BQ has a history of cooperating with both sides.

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