Thursday, September 3, 2009

Weekly Projection Update: Conservatives by Fifteen

The projection has been updated and has changed dramatically. However, there are two reasons for that.

Firstly, the polling data has been 'aged', as it is at the beginning of every month.

Secondly, and more importantly, I have tweaked the model a little bit in order to give more weight to past elections. I think it is necessary to have them as guide posts for the large margin-of-error regions. That is the primary reason we see the Conservatives pick up five seats, the Liberals lose four, and the NDP one.

One aspect of the projection that has not been affected by this change is the national support projection. There, we have the Conservatives pick up 0.1 points, the Liberals lose 0.2 points, and the NDP gain 0.2 points.

The margin between the two major parties is still only 0.7 points.

I will not be tweaking the model anymore, from now until the election.