Thursday, September 17, 2009

Projection Update - Conservatives 127, Liberals 106

The Conservatives have gained two seats and the Liberals have dropped four from last week's projection. Nevertheless, the Conservatives remain in an unstable minority, as the NDP and Liberals alone are able to outvote them.The Conservatives have gained one seat in British Columbia, Ontario, and the North. However, they have lost one in Quebec and are now down to five seats in that province. The Liberals have lost a seat in British Columbia, Ontario, Atlantic Canada, and the North. The New Democrats have gained a seat in Atlantic Canada, and the Bloc Quebecois has gained one in Quebec.

In terms of national popular vote, the Tories and Liberals have traded 0.3 points while the NDP, Bloc, and Greens have remained steady.

In the battleground provinces of British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec, there has been some movement. The Liberals have lost 0.3 points in BC, 0.2 of them being gobbled up by the Conservatives. The Conservatives stand at 37%, compared to the Liberal 26.3%, NDP 24.6%, and the Greens at 11.3%. This gives the Conservatives 21 seats in the province, the Liberals 10, and the NDP 5.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have gained 0.6 points (a big jump in this projection) at the expense of the Liberals. The NDP have gained 0.1 points, having taken that from the Greens. The Liberals still lead with 38.2% and 51 seats, but the Tories, at 36.3% and 44 seats, are catching up. The NDP stands at 15.1% and 11 seats, while the Greens hold 9.9% of the vote.

The Bloc Quebecois has gained 0.2 points in Quebec to stand at 37% and 50 seats. The Liberals remain steady at 30% and 19 seats while the Conservatives and NDP have each lost 0.1 points. This puts the Tories at 5 seats and the NDP at one. The Greens are unchanged at 6%.

Other big movements include a 0.4 point Conservative gain in Alberta, a 0.3 point Green gain in the Prairies, and a trading of 0.3 points between the Liberals and the NDP in Atlantic Canada, giving the NDP an extra seat there.

Clearly, this past week has not been beneficial for the Liberals in the polls. But the Conservatives aren't the ones reaping all of the benefits, as both the NDP and Bloc see themselves gaining seats.

13 comments:

  1. If the NDP thought they were going to gain seats, we'd be having an election next week. Your model is not reflectng the current state of the electorate. The NDP and everyone else know they would lose a significant number of seats of Layton wouldn't have back tracked on three years of rhetoric and have egg all over his face now. You must beincluding data that is WAY to old.

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  2. The NDP has gained a seat in the projection because of stronger results in Atlantic Canada. The NDP, as a whole, is still losing a dozen seats from where they are now.

    The prospect of winning 25 seats instead of 24, when Jack Layton currently holds 37, is not exactly positive.

    I think you've missed that.

    Polls have not shown any significant changes in NDP support lately, with one recently putting them at 19%, another at 12%, and the one today at 16.5%. I'm pretty comfortable with my numbers.

    --- "Your model is not reflectng the current state of the electorate."

    My model does not reflect the current state of polling, as polls are fleeting, have margins of error, and opinions change. My model reflects trends and probable outcomes, not the results of a few days of angry polls.

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  3. To put it another way, how is going from 37 seats to 25 a gain of seats?

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  4. I think Anon @12:01 is being confused by your change of seat figures included in your latest post.

    Its unclear if they refer to change of seats relative to the current party standing in the house (Anon's interpretation) or if it means change of seats relative to last week's model (their actual meaning).

    It would actually be kind of helpful if the current party standing was included for easy reference. Then the conlusion that, for example, the NDP was going from 37 to 25 according to your latest data would tell us that they're still sour on an election.

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  5. That's fair, I will make a change.

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  6. I don't think any of the parties are basing their decisions on what this site says is a projection. They are all doing their own soundings - and everyone knows that once we get into a campaign - anything can (and probably will) happen. I'm not sure that there are "winning conditions" for the Liberals right now - so they may or may not want to go through a campaign though maybe its worth it just to get a "dead cat bounce" from last time. The risk for the Tories is that unless they get a majority - they may well be out of power after the election.

    Everyone is probably also gambling as to whether its to their advantage to play for time. I think that we have a long hard winter ahead of us and that the Tories are probably better off having an election now than later. I think the Liberals could use the extra time to raise more money and make sure Iggy is "ready for primetime" since its not clear right now that he is.

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  7. How dare you suggest I am not THE reference of choice on Parliament Hill!

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  8. To DL, the parties certainly have other sources of information that inform their decision making such as internal polling, money, and the quality of local candidates they've managed to recruit - ex. see the buzz about Chris Alexander running for the Conservatives against Liberal MP Mark Holland.

    I actually think a lot of the decision making comes down to the leader's gut feelings, as opposed to what the statistical models are saying.

    Still, the NDP are clearly spooked and will certainly hold off on an election until at least the spring so the wishes of the Liberals are meaningless.

    In the end it comes down to Harper who could introduce a poison pill at any time and force the NDP to vote against him on principle. He won't and I think its the right call. I disagree with your assertion that its better for Harper to go now then later. He needs to get the recovery firmly entrenched and needs to make sure the campaign is punctuated with positive economic news.

    So I think an election is probably completely off the radar screen for now.

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  9. Interestingly, the parties are working together to fast-track the EI reform bill. The NDP certainly couldn't sabotage that to drag out the proceedings and still look their constituents in the eye. It is possible that the EI reform will be passed and made into law by the time the Liberals put forward their non-confidence motion.

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  10. A note not directly about this thread (but I didn't see a general comments area):

    You have a graphic near the top that is entitled 'Actual Current Parliament'.

    The numbers are slightly out of date.

    With Réal Ménard's resignation effective yesterday, the Bloc now has only 47 seats in the House of Commons.

    Also, 'Actual Current House of Commons' would be a more accurate title.

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  11. I don't know what makes you so sure that there necessarily WILL be good economic news. A lot of observers think that we may have a double dip and/or rising unemployment and rising deficit projections through the winter and that we may be going through a bit of "irrational optimism" right now.

    "I disagree with your assertion that its better for Harper to go now then later. He needs to get the recovery firmly entrenched and needs to make sure the campaign is punctuated with positive economic news."

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  12. Thanks for the information, Martin.

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  13. I wouldn't count on the EI passing before the Liberal confidence motion. The Bloc and the NDP are only offering to expedite first reading and the NDP are saying that they'll go through it with a fine tooth comb in committee (with expert witnesses and all) to ensure that it's acceptable to them. At best that's going to take a couple of weeks to organize and slog through. Plus, after that it's got to make it through the Senate. I think late October is the best you could expect on this.

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