Thursday, September 17, 2009

Projection Update - Conservatives 127, Liberals 106

The Conservatives have gained two seats and the Liberals have dropped four from last week's projection. Nevertheless, the Conservatives remain in an unstable minority, as the NDP and Liberals alone are able to outvote them.The Conservatives have gained one seat in British Columbia, Ontario, and the North. However, they have lost one in Quebec and are now down to five seats in that province. The Liberals have lost a seat in British Columbia, Ontario, Atlantic Canada, and the North. The New Democrats have gained a seat in Atlantic Canada, and the Bloc Quebecois has gained one in Quebec.

In terms of national popular vote, the Tories and Liberals have traded 0.3 points while the NDP, Bloc, and Greens have remained steady.

In the battleground provinces of British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec, there has been some movement. The Liberals have lost 0.3 points in BC, 0.2 of them being gobbled up by the Conservatives. The Conservatives stand at 37%, compared to the Liberal 26.3%, NDP 24.6%, and the Greens at 11.3%. This gives the Conservatives 21 seats in the province, the Liberals 10, and the NDP 5.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have gained 0.6 points (a big jump in this projection) at the expense of the Liberals. The NDP have gained 0.1 points, having taken that from the Greens. The Liberals still lead with 38.2% and 51 seats, but the Tories, at 36.3% and 44 seats, are catching up. The NDP stands at 15.1% and 11 seats, while the Greens hold 9.9% of the vote.

The Bloc Quebecois has gained 0.2 points in Quebec to stand at 37% and 50 seats. The Liberals remain steady at 30% and 19 seats while the Conservatives and NDP have each lost 0.1 points. This puts the Tories at 5 seats and the NDP at one. The Greens are unchanged at 6%.

Other big movements include a 0.4 point Conservative gain in Alberta, a 0.3 point Green gain in the Prairies, and a trading of 0.3 points between the Liberals and the NDP in Atlantic Canada, giving the NDP an extra seat there.

Clearly, this past week has not been beneficial for the Liberals in the polls. But the Conservatives aren't the ones reaping all of the benefits, as both the NDP and Bloc see themselves gaining seats.