Thursday, September 3, 2009

New EKOS Poll: Conservative-Liberal Tie

The new EKOS poll today merely adds fuel to the election fire.

It was taken between August 26 and September 1 and involved 2,118 Canadians. Michael Ignatieff's decision to oppose the Harper government came on September 1, and there was plenty of go-or-no-go talk for the two days previous, so this poll does include the potential of an election.

The national results:

Liberals - 32.6%
Conservatives - 32.6%
New Democrats - 16.5%
Greens - 9.9%
Bloc Quebecois - 8.3%

It's a dead heat! It can't be any closer than this. This will certainly not dissuade the Liberals from going, and the relatively strong 16.5% for the NDP won't make them support a government they've never supported before. The only stumbling block is the, well, Bloc. This is a weak result for them, but I think Gilles Duceppe is a savvy enough party leader that he is confident in his ability to win a campaign.

In British Columbia, the Tories are in front with 35.3%. The NDP is second with 25.5% and the Liberals third with 24.9%. The Greens continue to poll well in the province, with 14.3%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives have a relatively low 55.4% support, thanks to the very high 25.7% support of the Liberals. This makes them competitive in several ridings. At 10.8%, however, the NDP could be booted out of the province.

In the Prairies, the Tories lead with 46.3%, followed by the NDP at 25.9% and the Liberals at 18.6%. This is a good result for the NDP, but not for the Liberals.

In Ontario, the Liberals have opened up a significant lead, erasing last week's 37%-37% tie. This, more than anything, will tell the Liberals they are making the right decision. They lead with 40.4%, well ahead of the Conservatives at 33.1%. The NDP is at 15.6%, which isn't good but is better than some of the numbers we've seen here.

In Quebec, the Bloc is down to 32.3% but leads the Liberals, who are at 30.9%. That is a strong number for them. The 19.4% result of the Tories is also strong, and would mean they keep most of their seats. The NDP, at 9.8%, would risk losing Outremont.

The race is close in Atlantic Canada, with the Liberals in front at 34.1%, followed by the NDP at 30.0% and the Conservatives at 27.5%.

This poll would result in the slimmest of Liberal minorities:

Liberals - 119 seats
Conservatives - 115 seats
Bloc Quebecois - 44 seats
New Democrats - 30 seats

With the support of the NDP, and a Bloc that would want to lick its wounds, they would be able to govern.

The Conservatives lead the Liberals among males, 35.8% to 33.1%. They lead among 45-64 year olds (35.8% to 31.9%), and those over the age of 65 (41.0% to 37.0%). High-school graduates prefer the Tories over the Liberals (33.2% to 28.9%), as do college graduates (34.7% to 28.8%). Stephen Harper's party also leads in Calgary, 52.9% to 33.8%.

The Liberals lead among females, 32.2% to 29.5%. They lead among those under the age of 25 (29.5% to 22.1%) and those between the ages of 25 and 44 (32.0% to 28.2%). They lead the Tories among university graduates (38.9% to 30.2%) as well as in Vancouver (32.4% to 30.7%) and Toronto (44.8% to 35.4%). The Liberals also lead the Bloc in Montreal (32.7% to 32.3%), a new development.

I'm going to have a projection update later today.


  1. For almost the whole summer, the Greens in BC have polled significantly better outside of Vancouver than in Vancouver. They have managed to get into the 20%+ range a couple of times. The latest poll has them and the Liberals within a a couple of points of each other outside of Vancouver.

  2. Eric - I saw your comment over at Curiousity Cat. Please don't take my comments as disparaging. I think this type of analysis is useful when taken for trends and general.

    My beef is how those stats are used without context. You and I both know that the fact that we only have national polls and regional polls with high MOEs makes seat projection speculative. I think its ridiculous when they are applied by partisans like CC in a horse-race manner without regard to margin for error. Its also dumb when people take a 4 seats difference based on ONE POLL and draw the conclusion that a Liberal minority is right there on the horizon.

    However as an aside I would note that a 8 seat margin of error in the 125 seat MNA (6.4%) is almost identical a 20 seat margin of error in the 308 seat Parliament (6.5%).

    Besides, you have enough statistical knowledge to know that me saying there is a 20 seat MOE doesn't mean you're off by 20 seats everytime.

  3. Understood, KC, and I appreciate your clarification.

    I don't use individual polls to say whether a party is doing better or not, I merely point out whether results are good and if they are part of a discernible trend. I give the results of the individual polls for information purposes only.


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