Monday, September 14, 2009

New IR Poll: 9% Conservative Lead

Ipsos-Reid released a new poll today, via Canwest. Hopefully the rest of the details will be released tomorrow on their website, as is usually the case.

The poll was taken between September 10 and September 13 and involved 1,001 Canadians. You may remember the last Ipsos-Reid poll, and why it was a little suspect. This one is pretty much a re-hash of the last one, and when you take into consideration my assessment of Ipsos-Reid this morning, you might want to take this result with a grain of salt, for two reasons:

Conservatives - 39%
Liberals - 30%
New Democrats - 12%
Bloc Quebecois - 9%
Greens - 8%

And those two reasons are that Ipsos-Reid polls best for the Conservatives and worst for the NDP. To have the Tories so high and the NDP so low makes this an outlier, unless we have some polls from other firms in the next few days to back this one up.

Anyway, let's go through the information that is currently available.

The race is nevertheless close in British Columbia, with the Tories at 39% and the Liberals at 30%. The race isn't so close in Alberta and the Prairies, with the Conservatives polling an incredible 72%, with the Liberals at 15%, in Alberta and the split 50-23 in the Prairies.

In Ontario, the Conservative lead has actually narrowed since the last Ipsos-Reid poll, but they still lead 46% to 36%. In Quebec, the Bloc is steady at 36% while the Liberals are up at 28%. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead the Tories 39% to 31%.

I'll be able to project the seats for this individual poll once we have the rest of the regional details. I'm not even sure this would get Stephen Harper a majority, what with the results in British Columbia.