Thursday, March 18, 2010

EKOS Poll: 4.2-pt Conservative Lead

EKOS is on schedule with its weekly poll. A little movement, but nothing significant.Since last week's poll, the Conservatives have gained 1.2 points and are at 33.1%. The Liberals have lost 0.7 points and stand at 28.9%. While these are both within the 2.0 MOE, the 4.2 gap is not.

The NDP loses 0.3 points and is at 15.7%. The Greens lose 0.2 points and are at 10.8%, while the Bloc gains 0.1 point to reach 9.2%. The other parties are at 2.3%, down 0.1.

In Ontario, the two major parties have joined in a tie at 35.6%. The NDP is behind at 16.3%.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois is comfortably ahead with 36.8%, followed by the Liberals at 24.2% and the Conservatives at 16.3%. All of these results are slightly lower than where the parties want to be.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives continue to struggle with 32%. The NDP is at 24.8% and the Liberals are at 23.6%. The Greens are at 16.3% here.

The only movement outside of the MOE in any of the regional results comes in Alberta, where the Tories have gained eight points and stand at 58.2%. A Conservative lead in Atlantic Canada (only 0.4 points with a 7.8 MOE) is an oddity.

In the cities, the only movement outside of the MOE is in Toronto, where the Conservatives have gained nine points and are almost tied with the Liberals.

The Conservatives win 63 seats in the West, 45 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 11 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 125.

The Liberals win 21 seats in the West (thanks in large part to a big number in the Prairies), 47 in Ontario, 16 in Quebec, and 18 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 102.

The Bloc wins 51 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 11 in the West, 14 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 3 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 51.

This poll also has the "second choice" question, which I always love.

For Conservative voters, 45.9% have no second choice, 25.2% choose the Liberals, and 14.8% choose the NDP. This indicates that Conservatives voters don't see either the Liberals or the NDP as sharing a lot of common policies, but that the Liberals are seen as closer to the centre.

Among Liberal voters, 32.7% choose the NDP as their second choice, 26.5% have no second choice, and 18.6% choose the Conservatives. This indicates that the Liberals have a much stronger left-wing than they do right-wing.

For NDP voters, 30.9% choose the Liberals, 28.1% choose none, and 21.4% choose the Greens. Going over to the Tories is too much of a stretch for NDP voters.

For Bloc voters, 31.6% choose their fellow social democratic party in the NDP, 28.6% choose none, and 16.1% choose the Liberals.

Finally, among Green voters, 30% choose none, 24.2% choose the Liberals, and 23.6% choose the NDP. Talk that the Greens are more right-wing than most people think seems unfounded.