Thursday, March 4, 2010

New EKOS Poll: 3-pt Conservative Lead

EKOS has come along with its weekly poll. As usual, it is boring. B-O-R-I-N-G.The Conservatives have lost one point and are at 32.4%. The Liberals have lost 0.9 points, and are at 29.4%. Note: the margin of error is 2 points.

The NDP is down 0.6 points and is at 15.2%. The Bloc is up 1.2 points nationally, and the Greens are up 0.1 points. "Other" is at an unnaturally high 3.1%.

In Ontario, the Liberals are doing very well at 38%, while the Conservatives are still in the game at 34.9%. The NDP is struggling at 14.3%. Any variation from EKOS's last poll were within the 3.3 MOE.

In Quebec, the Bloc has gained five points (outside of the 4.0 MOE), and is at 37.8%. The Liberals have lost five points and are not doing well at 22.1%. The only consolation is that they are ahead of the Tories, who are at 15.9%. The NDP is doing well at 12.2%.

In British Columbia - shocking. The Liberals have moved into first place! They have 28.7% compared to the Conservatives' 28.5%. The NDP is also in the logjam at 25.6%. The Greens are at 13.7% - too low. No movements were outside of the 5.1 MOE.

In Alberta, the Liberals are still flying high at 18.9%, though the Conservatives are (of course) ensconced with 59.5%. In the Prairies, the Liberals and NDP are straddling the 20% mark, while the Tories are strongly ahead. And in Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives have moved into first with 32.7%, while the Liberals are at 32.1%. The NDP seems to be falling away. No movements here were outside of the MOE.

Finally, the cities. The only movement that is over and above the MOE is in Vancouver, where the Liberals have gained 10 points. This seems to have been a major source of their move into first place in the province. The Liberals and Tories are vying for top spot in the city.

In Toronto, the Liberals have a 10-point lead, while in Ottawa the Conservatives have a 20-point lead. The Bloc is doing well in and around Montreal, but oddly the NDP is doing worse here than in the province as a whole.

The Conservatives would win 63 seats out West, 41 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 11 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 121.

The Liberals are not far behind with 19 out West, 53 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 104.

The NDP wins 13 seats out West, 12 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 4 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 31. With the Liberals, they would outnumber the Conservatives.

The Bloc wins 52 seats, thanks to the weakness of the Liberals and Tories. The Greens are shut out.

This poll demonstrates a few things. First, that Ipsos-Reid poll suffered from the MOE. Second, there hasn't been much of a change anywhere. The race to watch, though, could be in British Columbia.


  1. Yup

    The poll is boring.

    However DL

    Notice those LIB/NDP seats

    Is Duceppe going to become Steve's best friend?

  2. I keep having this vision of Harper as the Martian from Bugs Bunny - going ballistic in the PMO saying "Where's the bounce?! There was supposed to be an Olympic-sized, earth-shattering bounce!! These earthlings are making me VERY angry. Very angry indeed!"

    ...and to think that the Tries wasted all those trillions of dollars on helping to fund the Olympics and on "owning the podium" - and all for nought - and let's face it - in Harper's world any money spent that doesn't lead to more votes is money that should never have been spent.

    What has to be especially DAMNING is for the Tories to be all the way down to 28% in BC. That is 17% below what they got in the last election and would add up to a loss of VAST numbers of seats. Its only going to get worse as the post-Olympics hangover gets underway.

  3. As DL says it's only going to get worse as the Olympic euphoria wears off.

    I suggest we really ignore any of these polls conducted, even in part, during that Olympic period.

    Lets see what the polls say post Budget? That will be more significant I suspect.

  4. DL/Peter

    That throne speech from yesterday
    was embarassing.

    Prorogation for that?

    Harper should be hanging his head in shame.

  5. Éric, Ekos has now been prompting "Other" as a polling option for eight weeks. Is that sufficient data to adjust your Polling Firm Leanings?

    More intruigingly, how much adjustment is required? That will suggest how much "Green" was a parking lot for "none of the others" in the 2009 surveys. A quick eyeball at page 3 of the latest Ekos report suggests that January 7th was the anomaly and the people polling Green before that date were serious Green supporters.

  6. I have to update the leanings, as I haven't in awhile.

  7. Hey Shadow: Yes you were right about telecom deregulation. Kudos!



  8. 49 steps: Didn't get your reference to prorogation and Senior's Day. Is it a new holiday? Seriously I read nothing about.



  9. Hello Earl,

    From the throne speech,

    "In recognition of the contributions seniors make to society, our government will support legislation establishing "Seniors Day"

    That and the anthem, and a few other things.

    Harper prorogued parliament ostensibly because he said he needed to recalibrate, and refocus.

    This is the best he has to offer after a two month recess.

  10. Looks like 64% of Canadians still have left-of-centre voting intentions.

    Imagine if Canada were an actual democracy which would reflect the true aspirations of it's citizens instead of this antiquated 18th century first-past-the-post nonsense?

    Not only that - why can't we have run-offs thereby ensuring that the winner of any electoral district has at least 50% support of the voters? If no one reaches the 50% (+1) mark - then the top two vote getters should have a run-off.

    Why are the conservatives so afraid of having democracy work the way it should?

    Why am I the only one brave enough to ask these questions?

  11. BTW -

    I'll give credit where/when it's due.

    Kudos to Shadow for actually being ahead of the curve regarding telecom deregulation.

  12. Josh,

    Your math is a little shaky, its almost 68%

    As for that new system of voting you want.

    I think we both know why the conservatives don't want that.

    Would you vote for a system that would put you in opposition forever?

  13. Josh:

    If it was a straight vote between the CPC and LPC do you think the LPC would win? I think it would be as close as it is now.

    It isn't the CPC that's afraid to let democracy work. Your PM, Trudeau amended our constitution and he didn't make the changes you want.

    If you want a coalition or an accord then run that way in the next election. The results will tell the tale. No-one is stopping the "left" from uniting.



  14. Hey guys its the NP article I linked to that deserves kudos, not me.

    I was actually really surprised the extent to which this budget contained poison pills.

    Direct foriegn investment in not only telecom and satelite broadcasting but also uranium and potash !

    Isn't there a provincial monopoly for potash ? The NDP will HATE that being opened up.

    Also loosening the rules for uranium. Either Brad Wall had Harper on speed dial or some of the SK MPs are gaining more influence.

    Anyways I just don't see how the NDP or BQ could support this budget.

    As usual its up to Ignatieff if he wants to be Stephane Dion Pt 2.

  15. Reginald Stackhouse wrote an excellent piece in the G&M the other day:

    It more or less says how I, and I think quite a few people, feel. The Conservatives are doing an ok-to-good job on the more important issues, but they are continually distracted by petty stuff. This usually means pushing bad policy that they hope might win them votes because voters aren't paying attention or don't understand the issues.

    (As an aside, an example of the latter to me is eliminating the 2-for-1 pre-trial detention credit; all that this does is switch the incentive for delaying trials from the defence to the prosection.)

    This should be required reading for everyone in the PMO.

  16. What a boring poll, indeed. There's more excitement on CPAC.

    But hey, I suppose that isn't all bad for my vested in interests.

  17. "Notice those LIB/NDP seats

    Is Duceppe going to become Steve's best friend?"

    or... is he going to become Iggy/Laytons best friend. Since they don't have 154 between them either? It would take some combination of the Tories, libs, and or bloc to make the majority. The NDP usual... is irrelevant.

    Speaking of irrelevant. O'Malley was pointing out this morning that Linda Duncan might be in trouble in her alberta seat what with 0% being within the margin orf error for the NDP in alberta.

  18. Question for ya Goaltender.

    You are picked up and charged with a serious crime. Held on remand. Your trial date comes. You are acquitted because of course you are innocent.

    What do you get for your time in remand? Both a pat on the back and an I'm sorry?

    I doubt you would get both...

    So why do we give time to the people that are actually guilty of the crime?? Why up til now did we offer the guilty double time.... and only give the innocents an apology.

    I might agree that allowing time for time might alter which side delays for the trial. But we need to stop rewarding criminals with time served when innocents aren't... with consecutive sentencing... also known as a volume discount.

    We should be rewarding the people who keep their nose clean instead.

  19. Hey Volkov I know you were hoping the NDP would vote for this budget.

    But it sounds like the NDP and BQ are planning to vote no.

    Any thoughts now on how this thing will pass ?

    Does Iggy support it or abstain ?

    Or are we in an election ?


    Daily tracking numbers on pg 3.....

    What happened on the weekend? did I miss something big?

  21. Shadow,

    Well, I don't think the NDP will vote - I'm not going to guess what the Bloc will do, though. They complained about the forestry sector and Quebec - those aren't things that are hard to address in a budget revision. Look for the Bloc lobbing some ideas at the government.

    However, if the Bloc decides not to vote for the budget, then the Liberals are left. I think the Liberals will probably vote for the budget if that's the case. The mindset is "no spring election," among anyone. But, I won't go as far as to say they'll do it unconditionally; if the Liberals are put into the situation where they're the Conservative government's only hope, they'll press on that, which I think has about equal weight for the Liberals in terms of budget negotiations, given the recent drop for the Conservatives lately, in both polls and general respect for Harper.

    If that's the case, the Liberals would probably put in more employment measures, draw up some plans for addressing the pensions issue, maybe enforce environmental stuff, and probably tweak the foreign ownership rules a bit to ensure that Canadian content is secured in broadcasting. That's my guess, and hopes, anyways.

    If Iggy simply rolls over, well.. I won't be too pleased. I don't think he will, though. We'll see, won't we?

  22. They can't vote non-confidence until there is an actual vote held, and everyone is actually in the House. Recall what happened (twice) when they stated ahead of time that they would vote down the government.

  23. We've had two polls with the Tories and Liberals tied in BC and one where the Tories have had a 30 point lead.

  24. Heh Barcs, maybe a certain gold medal hockey game perhaps ?

    Honestly though I probably wouldn't read too much into the CPC jumping to 39.2% on the last day of the sample.

    The MOE for individual days would be huge.

  25. Barcs: What happened on the weekend? did I miss something big?

    As a guess, you missed statistical variation. Yup, that's big.

    Think about the range in that intra-week table the next time a pundit breathlessly announces some party is up by two points. And to preempt a possible counterpoint, the Ekos daily volumes are roughly half of other pollsters' entire surveys.

  26. Hey Volkov I don't think there are going to be negotiations.

    OR if there is it'll be conditional on two points:

    1) No new taxes.

    2) All new spending suggestions need to be fully paid for by finding somewhere to cut in the federal budget.

    Otherwise the tax pledge or the deficit reduction timeline would be blown to hell.

    So if the choice is between Ignatieff walking away with nothing OR an election which would the Liberals prefer ?

    Which are they most likely to do ?

    A scenario i've long thought possible is Iggy telling everyone to vote no, an election looking certain, and then a handful of nervous Liberals miss the voting day making Iggy look weak/foolish/bad leader.

  27. John there is no way of being certain its just noise though.

    As I said the MOE would be something like 6% on each day, very high, lots of noise.

    But we won't know for certain until next week's EKOS.

    Mens gold medal hockey is a pretty huge event.

  28. "The MOE for individual days would be huge."

    "And to preempt a possible counterpoint, the Ekos daily volumes are roughly half of other pollsters' entire surveys."

    says about 4% on the table.... little more than twice the MoE for the whole poll. I dunno if the regions varied or not. but a 4% MoE doesn't explain a 4% swing one day and another 4% a day after that.

    If you are ready to discount the last 2 days and take the first 3 days.... (already larger than other pollsters as you said).... do we assume that the liberals have a 33-30 lead?

  29. Shadow,

    That's an amusing scenario, but I doubt it would occur. If it didn't happen before last September, it isn't going to happen now. There was a lot more doubt back then over Iggy's decision.

    I think the Liberals would meet those conditions in negotiations. As I said, I don't think they're going to draw up huge spending plans - they just want to tweak a couple things, and at least introduce some ideas that the government would address, though not necessarily spend oodles on, like little environmental policies.

    If it got right down to it, though, I would probably bet in the Liberal self-preservation instinct to vote in favour of the budget. I wouldn't mind that though, if the Liberals at least show they tried to get the government to enter negotiations. Dion's problem was that he did everything almost unconditionally; Iggy needs to change that.

  30. Shadow,

    Are the conservatives that gung ho for an election?

    As for looking foolish

    That throne speech yesterday was foolish.

    Prorogation in order to re focus and recalibrate.

    That's the best Harper can come up with.

    I don't know he looked pretty foolish to me yesterday.

  31. No one wants an election. Not Conservatives, not Liberals, not Dippers, not... well, I don't know what the Bloc wants, but I don't imagine they care a whole lot.

  32. Just out of curiosity...

    Anyone want to take a guess as to why the Liberals, in every single poll shown recently, are up in Alberta so much? I don't think it can be blamed solely on the abandonment of the provincial Tories... is Ignatieff having a better effect than Dion in Alberta?

  33. Volkov,

    Here is my very uneducated guess.

    Is it possible that even in Alberta that some Harper fatigue
    is starting to set in.

    Ignatieff does look better than Dion.

    However I know Dion is a very decent and intelligent man.

    It is too bad what happened to him.

  34. Hey Volkov Iggy has definetly been paying lipservice to the oil sands, even when talking in Quebec.

    Its wishful thinking, of course, for Albertans to think their economy wouldn't be harmed by his energy policy. He did propose a carbon tax in his leadership campaign after all.

    Sort of like Joe Biden sayin "drill we must" when oil was over $100 a barrel and American's wanted more off shore drilling.

    And yet there's been zero new off-shore drilling in the US.

    Symbolism matters. Dion was associated with Quebec, with Trudeau, with the NEP.

    Iggy won't be until his green rhetoric heats up during an election.

  35. Hey, Éric, I'm having a lot of trouble connecting to I'm getting one of these:

    You were denied access because:
    Access denied by access control list.

    I got here by following the comment link from a Google cached version of the front page.

  36. Ira, I don't know what to tell you. I haven't had any issues. What do you mean by: "I got here by following the comment link from a Google cached version of the front page."

    That sounds like an odd way to get to the site. I'm not sure how to duplicate it.

  37. Shadow: Mens gold medal hockey is a pretty huge event.

    Barcs: says about 4% on the table.... little more than twice the MoE for the whole poll. I dunno if the regions varied or not. but a 4% MoE doesn't explain a 4% swing one day and another 4% a day after that.

    Events on any given day may add to the jitter. And margin of error is not a wall; probabilities involving large numbers are modelled as a curve in which the tail may have considerable area. Absent a proper analysis, the numbers don't appear inconsistent with the null hypothesis. But if you want to take this further, I'd suggest doing the statistical legwork.

    Shadow again: But we won't know for certain until next week's EKOS.

    And not even then. The only thing we can say with absolute certainty is that we don't know. After that, it's a question of how good our guesses are.

  38. Yeah Eric i've been getting it a lot too.

    I'm not sure what the problem is.

    Too much traffic maybe ?
    Blogger acting up ?

    Some other popular blogger sites have been giving me trouble too.

  39. Wow so there is a lot of talk about just scrapping O Canada and replacing it with Maple Leaf Forever.

    Was Michael Buble's performance really THAT good at the closing ceremony ?

    I mean I enjoyed it but this seems a little extreme.

    PS - I was thinking about how we could add Tory blue to the Canadian flag so we'd be red, white and blue like America.

    Maybe put a blue fleur-de-lis in every corner ?

  40. If you're accessing the site at work, your employee might have blocked blogger sites.

  41. The Maple Leaf Forever will never fly as a national anthem since it has no French version and the whole song is about British triumphalism!

  42. Shadow,

    That'll never happen.

    That song has been taboo for some time, because of it's reference to James Wolfe.

    National unity is an important part, of a national anthem.

    I agree that Buble was a showstopper thou, and the song is pretty catchy.

  43. Hey guys well there is two versions of lyrics.

    Buble sung the updated version, which is pretty much devoid of Britishness. Although the original did include a reference to the lily, a shout out to Quebec so it wasn't exactly anti-French.

    In the updated version they changed these lyrics:

    "And may those ties of love be ours
    Which discord cannot sever,"


    "Remind us all our union bound,
    By ties we cannot sever,
    Bright flag revered on every ground,
    The Maple Leaf forever!"

    Talk about sticking it to the seperatists!

    Anyways I just really like the music and the line "maple leaf forever".

    Its way more upbeat then O Canada. More assertive, more celebratory.

    Obviously there would need to be some tweaks, including a reference to Vimy Ridge.

  44. Hey I should just add there is no mention of GOD in the updated lyrics Buble used.

    Any takers now ?

    DL, AJR79 ?

    You got some Tories onside, with the anthem debate open now might be your only chance to secularize our anthem !

    Removing God would be very unpopular. But switching to a different anthem with a different set of lyrics that don't mention God ?

    Not gonna be a big deal.

  45. Barcs,
    Say you are innocent and the prosecution has little evidence against you. But they think you MIGHT be or PROBABLY are guilty (or they wouldn't have charged you in the first place). Couldn't they just try to delay your trial in order to make sure you serve the time in prison they think you deserve, before you have been tried?

    The 2 for 1 credit was precisely to encourage prosecutors to concentrate on prosecuting those who they have the strongest cases against, and drop charges against those they have weak cases. IE., the rule was to PROTECT THE INNOCENT.

    Yes, 2-for-1 benefits guilty people, too. But so does the presumption of innocence, the rule against hearsay, and the right to a lawyer.

    Making people spend lots of time in jail whether or not they are guilty is just plain bad, wrong, unjust. 2-for-1 guarded against that. It's bad policy to get rid of it.

  46. I've got to say... I have no idea what to think about the Liberal's plan to let the budget pass.

    The idea, apparently, is to only have a skeleton crew of MPs there to let the budget pass, so say, 10 members at the very least. The rest will be absent.

    Like.. what? Its like, on one hand, they're trying to make a stand.. but on the other, ensuring no election occurs. I don't feel happy with this strategy... I think.

  47. Oh wait, nevermind, I get it now.

    The idea is to vote against the budget, but have enough members absent to ensure the budget's passage.

    ... Still not sure.

  48. Volkov didn't Ignatieff issue a one time only exemption for Newfoundland MPs to vote against last years budget ?

    So now he's issuing a one time only exemption for MPs to miss work ?

    But I thought the problem with prorogation was that MPs would be missing work.

    Ignatieff Liberals = On Vacation.

    Hypocrisy doesn't wear well. Game playing doesn't look good. And he basically pulled a Dion, rolled over and let the budget pass without getting any concessions.

  49. Shadow: PS - I was thinking about how we could add Tory blue to the Canadian flag so we'd be red, white and blue like America.

    Maybe put a blue fleur-de-lis in every corner ?

    No pot too small to stir.

  50. Éric - yes, it is an odd way to get the site. Normally I just visit, but that's giving me a Forbidden screen.

    So instead, I Googled threehundredeight, and then rather than following the link to the actual site, I chose to view Google's cached version of the site, which is just like the real site but several hours old - and from that I clicked the Comment link and that brought me here - and the comment page works fine.

    I explained how I got here because otherwise it would sound like I was saying the site didn't work, even though it clearly did since I was using it. But I'm not using it - I can't visit at all.

    If it's my office firewall (and it would be odd to have that suddenly appear now, because my IT guy is on vacation this week), I'll get that fixed, but apparently I'm not the only one here having the problem.

  51. And now it suddenly works fine.

    I have no idea what the problem was/is. But it's gone now.

  52. Volkov,

    I agree with you

    Totally lame

    Looks like Shadow was right

    (Darn I hate to admit that)

  53. Shadow,

    Yes, I know. It really is hypocritical, especially considering they just went off rightly on the Conservatives for making "symbolic gestures" like the anthem and Seniors Day, yet do it themselves with this stupid measure!

    Ah, but, I suppose that is politics. And I swear to God, if I hear another Conservative on CPAC talk about "the coalition," I'll be sending a very strongly worded letter to them.

  54. 49

    Well if that is it that budget was certainly a non-event !!

  55. Peter,

    Not a happy liberal today.

  56. But I thought the problem with prorogation was that MPs would be missing work.
    Sorry, nobody's forgotten about the documents that continue to be withheld.

    2 for 1: Why not pay cash for time held in remand if you are acquitted?
    2 for 1 x my lost pay for example.

  57. As regards the Afghan detainee issue I've just found out that it isn't politicians who determine what can and can't be made public, it is lawyers in the Dept. of Justice. So the opposition is asking the government to ignore the advice of it's experts and release classified information. I'd be willing to fight an election on that issue as I'm sure Mr. Harper would.

    I've also read the Mr. Lee's motion will not likely have the full support of his party as many members are aware of the ramifications of such a motion.

  58. Loved Gilles soundbyte,

    "We're not supporting the budget, and we're going to vote against it"

    Talk about sticking it to Iggy.

    The man does have a sense of humour.

  59. If it's any consilation to the Libs here, I think that Iggy is doing the right thing...

    He's just looking, and sounding incredibly bad doing it.

  60. Earl said:
    "it isn't politicians who determine what can and can't be made public, it is lawyers in the Dept. of Justice. "

    To put it bluntly you are full of shit!! This is nothing but another CRAP "talking point"!!

    Justice has nothing to do with this, this is purely and simply, try and you maybe can understand, about what is Supreme?? The Executive or Parliament?? History, tradition and the Constitution say that Parliament is Supreme. Like it or lump it!!

    If Parliament demands the documents "National Security" nor any other pseudo legality can say NO. That's life !!

  61. Volkov I guess you'll just have to trust that Peter Donolo knows what he's doing.

    Spring 2011 has been his plan for awhile now.

  62. So CTV seems convinced that Harper wants an election this year so he can make the hard spending cuts with a majority.

    But here's something to consider,

    what if Harper simply keeps on being PM and there is no election until the fixed election date kicks in ?

  63. He's just looking, and sounding incredibly bad doing it.
    Yes, Iggy's not good at luring, is he? Recall the last two times defeating the government was discussed, Harper prorogued. You have to lure him into the House in session, get a vote on a money bill started, then you can safely defeat him and he can't wiggle out.
    So nobody is going to talk of defeating the government until the actual voting is underway in the House.
    I smell a blindside coming.

  64. 49

    Want to chime in on my comment to Earl? Re Piviledge

  65. Peter,

    Go check other thread.

  66. To some of our Liberal friends on this blog, i've noticed three general views you've been putting forward:

    1) Harper is doomed because of prorogation/Afghan cover up
    2) Parliament will get those documents come hell or high water
    3) The opposition will vote against the budget unless they get all kinds of juicy concessions, such as those budget documents.

    What are you going to do, how would you feel if the opposite off all three points was in fact true ??

    1) Nobody cared about prorogation, Harper is back up in the polls, all is forgoten and forgiven.

    2) Derek Lee's motion doesn't have enough support, Harper ignores the documents issue and it goes away

    3) Iggy lets the budget pass, asks for nothing in return.

  67. Peter so you are saying that if Parliament demands to be shown the NATO and NORAD protocols that detail what we'd do if attacked the government of the day is forced to accede to that demand? That's nonsense! By the way Peter civility is valued here. Try it. What does CRAP stand for?



  68. Since when is Harper "back up in the polls" He went from being 14 points ahead to being in a dead heat to being 3 points ahead - maybe. That's called a dead cat bounce.

  69. Peter said: "Earl said:
    "it isn't politicians who determine what can and can't be made public, it is lawyers in the Dept. of Justice. "

    To put it bluntly you are full of shit!! This is nothing but another CRAP "talking point"!!"

    First off Peter please be civil. I don't need someone with anger issues swearing at me.

    Secondly do you have any proof for your assertion that what I am saying is not true? Or is it simply your opinion?



  70. I'm not going to speculate about when the next election happens, but I'm fairly certain the CPC will pull out all straps to ensure it doesn't happen before July. Otherwise, the dozens of CPC MPs elected in 2004 would not be eligible for six digit taxpayer-funded pensions for life the Reform Party railed against for years.

  71. Hey DL: Harper's far enough up in the polls that no-one dares to force an election. Are the opposition so ineffectual that they still aren't prepared to take on this crippled government that does everything wrong and has a leader who is a walking disaster. That's how you describe the Harper government. It must be frustrating to know how bad a government really is and to have the power to throw it out but be afraid to use it, because you know they'll be re-elected. That's gotta be tough.

    Good fortune,


  72. The NDP is putting its money where its mouth is by voting against the budget - I take no responsibility for the Liberals being a bunch of wusses.

  73. Just a purely hypothetical question.

    If Ignatieff had announced that the Liberals would not support the budget, what would the NDP have done.

    I can recall when their bluff was finally called last fall, they folded like a cheap suit.

    See where I'm going

  74. The NDP would have crumpled if the Liberals had come out directly against the budget.

    Listen to Mulcair and Layton during the sessions after; it was all about "wait and see." They are cautious not to make an absolute declaration of support for or against. Had the Liberals said outright, we're against the budget, we'd have another Conservative-socialist "meeting of minds."

    Anyways, that wasn't my purpose of posting; kudos to John for an excellent projection saying the Green Party would either be third or a strong fourth in the Ottawa West-Nepean by-election. In fact, the Green candidate was only 0.2 percent behind the NDP candidate, and in Leeds-Grenville, scored a three point lead over the NDP. Pretty impressive for a party with no seats.

  75. 49 Steps - Sure, the NDP was bluffing, but no one called them on it so they take the pot.

    Politics doesn't care how you win.

  76. I think the media is starting to believe Kevin Page's delusions that we're all doomed and taxes must be raised.

    The Q4 growth of 5% was WAY HIGHER then he had predicted. He was essentially blown out of the water.

    Flaherty's projections for the 5 year budget framework are based on growth around 2.3%. Page uses even lower figures for his assumptions.

    If our economy continues to keep racking up gold medals and we see oil tick up another $10 a barrel then we might have a fully balanced budget in as little as 3 years.

  77. Earl

    "Peter so you are saying that if Parliament demands to be shown the NATO and NORAD protocols that detail what we'd do if attacked the government of the day is forced to accede "

    Yes, precisely. Unless the relevant statute has a clause in it specifically saying Parliament can't look then this demand is correct. Very few statutes do by the way,

    CRAP = Conservative Reform Alliance Party.

  78. OK, I'm fallible.

    In a previous thread I said: Bob Chiarelli will win Ottawa-West Nepean, guaranteed... The interesting race here is for third place. The Dippers had one and a half times the Green vote in the last election, but Mark Mackenzie is a powerhouse candidate and he has put together a serious machine. I think he'll overtake the NDP on Thursday... [and later] It's a major step and if Mark Mackenzie pulls it off he's accomplished something very big.

    I was right about the winner, but Green candidate Mark Mackenzie was 0.1% behind the NDP in yesterday's Ottawa-West Nepean byelection.

    That's just the first step; he's in it for the long haul, not just this byelection.

    This is still a major step forward and Mark will definitely move past the NDP in 2011. The next interesting question is the Green Party's position relative to second place. Greens across the country have been steadily moving from fourth to third to occasional second-place finishes. Seats on the Hill are not far off.

    Oh, and Leeds-Grenville? Green Candidate Neil Kudrinko came in 2.5% ahead of the NDP, but that's now table stakes since Jeanie Warnock of the Greens was ahead of the NDP in the last general provincial election. The Green vote did increase, however. As usual.

  79. What do you mean by the Green vote increasing "as usual"? In the Toronto Centre byelection it crashed from 10% to 3% and in St. Paul's it went way down too as well - and let's not forget the total fiasco of the four federal byelections last fall where the Green vote % collapsed everywhere.

  80. BTW: Harris/Decima has finally put out the regional breaks from their poll released the other day.

  81. It is just me or is the post above a bunch of weird jibberish?

  82. Obviously it was. I deleted it. Don't click on stuff here if it looks like spam.

  83. DL
    "It is just me or is the post above a bunch of weird jibberish?"

    It's in Chinese which does make it somewhat less than useful (g)

  84. DL: What do you mean by the Green vote increasing "as usual"?

    I detect some understandable testiness. I was using "usual" in the sense of "in the great majority of elections", not "everwhere, every time".

    The history of Leeds-Grenville supports that usage. For that matter, so does the history of Ottawa-West Nepean. Federally, too, in both those ridings. (It's significant that I started typing that sentence before even checking the results in the links.) And the vast majority of ridings in the country, federally or provincially, over time. There are certainly exceptions.

  85. RE: Earl
    "It must be frustrating to know how bad a government really is and to have the power to throw it out but be afraid to use it, because you know they'll be re-elected. That's gotta be tough."

    Yeah, I'd say so. The fact that we have a government that has control with and not in spite of the support of only a third of the electorate is a pretty awful thing.

    An election is the only check on what they do, but if the only right-wing party retains control of the government with only the support of 33-36% of the people, then even an election is pointless.

  86. The Liberals can recover their credibility rather quickly, require EVERYONE shows up to vote against the budget they don't support.

    a) NDP fold like a cheap suit as they did in September

    b) Campaign against the do nothing budget and meanie PM

    c) Roll over as per the "new normal" but keep the college kids on staff for publicity and photo ops pretending they care.


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