Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Progressive Conservatives Ahead in Manitoba

Angus-Reid released a new Manitoba provincial poll on March 18. It shows a close race, but the Progressive Conservative opposition is now in the lead.The Progressive Conservatives are up to 44% in the province, while the New Democrats are at 37%. The Liberals stand at 13%, while the Greens are at 3%.

The last Manitoba poll I have was done in December by Probe Research. That poll had the NDP up 47% to the PC's 37%. So, if we can compare these two, this is a big change.

But the NDP is still in front in Winnipeg, with 44% to the PC's 36%. The Liberals are at 13% here.

In rural Manitoba, the Progressive Conservatives dominate with 55%. The NDP is at 28% and the Liberals are at 13% here.

As compared to the province's 2007 election, the NDP is down 11 points. But, Gary Doer (who led the NDP to victory in that election) is no longer Premier. The PCs have gained six points since that election, while the Liberals have only gained one.

There are large differences between the federal and provincial political scenes in Manitoba. In the 2008 federal election, the Conservatives had 49%, the NDP 24%, and the Liberals 19%.

This is the last of the provincial polls in my backlog. I hope to have a projection update soon, though tomorrow will undoubtedly see the release of the EKOS poll. Also, I'd appreciate if the comments in response to this post stick to Manitoba politics, rather than what is going on in the House of Commons.


  1. Eric - thanks for the disclaimer.

    If Gary Doer was still around, the results would be different, because he was fairly well-liked around these parts. Not his party so much, just him - and that's becoming evident now.

    If the PC's can keep the pressure on, then maybe Manitoba can come out of the darkness for a while.

    And one day, stop sucking at the teat of the 'have' provinces.

    That would be a good day in my province.

  2. Looking at the situation objectively, what would you say is the general opinion of the various party leaders in Manitoba today?

  3. Hi Hinchey

    From Morris are you?

    I am in the city.

    I know the PC's rule in your neck of the woods.

    In mine not so much.

    I agree Doer was responsible for most of the NDP strength.

    Hoever if the PC's can not start to get some traction in Winnipeg, it will be hard for them to take back government.

    They have to start winning back some of those South Winnipeg suburban seats, lost to the NDP, in the previous 2 elections.

    I don't know about Mcfadyen, he has don't anything to offend or impress yet.

    The NDP is starting to get long in the tooth, and Selinger isn't doing anything to excite.

  4. I live in Morris now, but grew up in Winnipeg - I'm 30, and have been out here for 6 years now. Just to give some perspective!

    NDP - Selinger is going down.
    PC - McFayden? Well, still not sure. But he cant' do worse than last election when his main platform plank was to bring back the Jets.
    Liberal - Dr. Gerrard has been at the bottom of the totem pole for ages - not going to change.

    Here's what I used to think...
    and after a quick education on the matter of Manitoba, here's what I think now.

  5. Hinchey,

    I wish we didn't have to receive equalization either.

    We seem to be happy to be a miidle of the road, do not rock the boat kind of province.

    Gary Doer was a hughly popular, and successful premier, but what will he be remembered for.

    He didn't do anything. He kept the provincial civil service, the teachers and the nurses happy and quiet. Thats all he did.

    He came into office at a time when he was rolling in money, (thanks to Ottawa) and he spent every dime of it.

    Our roads aren't any better, and lord knows our health care services, and hospitals aren't any better.

    Remember that promise of his to end hallway medicine?

    Gary Doer suceeded, by doing nothing, and not upsetting anyone.

    Selinger now is in a bind, with the provinces finances in the toilet. Did you see the front page of the press today?

    What is the NDP going to do, raid the hydro again?

    Try and raid MPIC?

    If Mcfadyen can string together a coherent and credible message then yes he has a shot.

    The PC's still have to get their numbers up in Winnipeg.

    The south end of the city is the key. In the core area, central, and North end Winnipeg, the PC's have no chance.

    And god bless Dr. Gerrard, a throughly decent man who just keeps plugging away.

  6. The Manitoba PC Party is one of the few who have remained in the middle. Manitoba politics, in that way, is perhaps similar to that in Nova Scotia, where neither the PC Party nor the NDP have ever been 'extreme' in any way. I could see the Tories winning a government here no problem, and in fact, I expect it. Their problem is that their leader is anything but inspiring.

  7. New Ekos out today.

    Two thirds of the public,66.2%, still don't like the Cons !!


  8. Thought you'd appreciate seeing a link to this blogpost from Manitoba pollster Curtis Brown of "Endless Spin Cycle" (he's with Probe Research).

    His question about the poll was why the gender distribution of party support was so atypical in it. In every other Manitoba sample, women strongly favour the NDP, but in this one poll they don't. Probe has a sample in the field right now, and will be trying to replicate or disprove those findings, but he's wondering what else might have been going on in that poll.


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