Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Projection Update: 128 CPC, 100 LPC, 51 BQ, 29 NDP

The latest projection update doesn't show much movement, but is important nevertheless.Why? With the Conservatives dropping one seat and the Liberals gaining one seat, the spread is now 28 seats. And the NDP has 29. This bumps the projection into an Unstable Conservative Minority, as only the second and fourth parties are required to out-vote the government.

The Conservatives have lost 0.3 points nationally and are down to 33.5%, while the Liberals have gained 0.1 points and are up to 29.4%. It seems that the gains and losses are slowing for these two parties. The NDP is steady at 16.2%, while the Bloc drops 0.1 point to 9.3% and the Greens gain 0.1 point to reach the psychologically significant level of 10%.

Let's look at the changes region by region.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have lost one seat and 0.1 points, down to 36%. The Liberals gain a seat and 0.2 points, and stand at 36.4%. The NDP also gains 0.1 points while the Greens lose 0.2.

In Quebec, the Bloc is down 0.1 points but still well ahead at 37.9%. The Liberals have lost 0.2 points in the province (their only loss anywhere in the country) and are down to 25.0%. The Conservatives are steady, while the NDP picks up 0.1 points and the Greens pick up 0.2 points.

British Columbia shows the most significant movement, with the Conservatives dropping half a point to 35.8%. The NDP gains 0.1 points and keeps a narrow lead over the Liberals with 25.8%. The Liberals gain 0.4 points and stand at 25.3%. The Greens are down 0.2 points in the province.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have gained 0.2 points to reach 36.9%. The Conservatives are down 0.1 points and are at 31.2%. The NDP is down 0.3 points to 24.2%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives continue to slide with a loss of 0.2 points. With 59%, however, they still have a commanding lead. The Liberals continue to impress with a gain of 0.4 points and are now at 17.6%. The NDP is down 0.3 points and the Greens are up 0.1.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives are down 0.2 points to 47.5% - still well ahead of the NDP who have lost 0.2 points and are at 23.5%. The Liberals gain 0.1 and the Greens gain 0.3.

Finally, in the North, the Conservatives drop 0.1 points.

This was a bad two weeks for the government, as they have dropped in every region of the country except Quebec, where they remained stable. A 0.5-point loss in British Columbia is very bad news for the party.

The Liberals had a good two weeks, posting large 0.4-point gains in British Columbia and Alberta. They've also opened up a tiny lead in Ontario, but their loss of ground in Quebec is troublesome.

The NDP did not have a very good time, posting minute gains in BC, Ontario, and Quebec but 0.3-point losses in Atlantic Canada and Alberta. However, unlike the Liberals and the Conservatives, the NDP is never down or up throughout the country.

The Bloc only dropped 0.1 points, which seems to be the norm. They are stuck at around 38%.