Friday, March 26, 2010

Seat Changes in Ontario

I was playing around with the UBC Election Forecaster, tweaking it so that the popular vote results in each region would mirror those in my projection. They use a simple vote transferring model. Some of the results that came out of the forecaster were different from my own (though not significantly), but the result in Ontario matched mine exactly: 48 LPC, 45 CPC, 13 NDP.

So, this gives us an idea of what seats we are actually talking about in Ontario. It is a swap of 10 seats to the Liberals, six of them coming from the Conservatives and four of them from the NDP.

Here are the Conservative seats that switch over to the Liberals:

London West
Oak Ridges-Markham

None of these seats, however, are held by important members of the Conservative caucus.

These are the New Democratic seats that would switch over to the Liberals:

Thunder Bay-Rainy River

While the first three seats are held by lesser members of the NDP caucus, the last of the four is held by Olivia Chow.

Anyway, an interesting look deeper into the projection. The forecaster also identified Beauport-Limoilou and Roberval-Lac-St-Jean as two of the Conservative seats that would pass over to the Bloc Québécois.