Wednesday, March 10, 2010

New HD Poll: 4-pt Conservative Lead

Harris-Decima has a new poll out, without any major surprises. But it does show some Conservative strength.Compared to Harris-Decima's last poll taken at the end of February, this is a two point gain for the Conservatives (33%) and a two point loss for the Liberals (29%). The NDP is steady at 16%, the Bloc gains two points (10%) and the Greens lose one point (11%). Note that the margin of error is 1.8%.

Also note that this poll straddles the last poll a little bit. That last poll was taken between February 18 and February 28, while this one was taken between February 25 and March 7. I've reduced the weight of this poll accordingly, as it is already partly represented by the older poll.

The Liberals lead with 39% in Ontario, a good number for them. The Conservatives are at 35%, so still in striking distance. The NDP is weak with 14%.

The Bloc shows a big eight-point bounce (MOE is 3.6) and stands at 44%, one of their better results in a long time. The Liberals poll at half that strength, with 22%. The Conservatives are also hurting at 15%.

The Tories are still showing some trouble in British Columbia with 35%, while the NDP is steady with 25%. The Liberals have dropped nine points (MOE 5.2) to 21%.

All variations in Alberta and the Prairies are within the MOE, but in Atlantic Canada (MOE 5.6) the Liberals have dropped eight points to 34% and the Conservatives have gained nine (30%).

The Conservatives win 68 seats out West, 41 in Ontario, 5 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 123.

The Liberals win 14 out West, 54 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 18 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 100. Poor performances in BC and Quebec hurt them in this poll.

The Bloc wins 54 seats in Quebec, matching their all-time best.

The NDP wins 13 in the West, 11 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 5 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 31.

Nothing really new in this poll, though it does show a potentially volatile British Columbia. Liberal strength (relatively speaking) continues in Alberta, and they are still showing great numbers in Ontario. But the Tories are not going away in that province.


On another note, I recommend you read Manon Cornellier's piece in today's Le Devoir about the government's budget strategy. If you can't read French, Google Translator may help you. Cornellier is one of the more under-rated political pundits in the country. Her pieces are always very detailed and focus more on substance than most pundits do today. Le Devoir also seems to give her more space on the page than the Don Martins, Jim Traverses, and Chantal Héberts of the media world. She really deserves a look.