EKOS has its weekly poll out, and we're starting to see some movement.The Conservatives have remained steady, gaining 0.2 points over EKOS's poll last week. They now stand at 33.3%. The Liberals, however, have dropped 1.2 points to 27.7%. The Greens are also down, 0.4 points, to 10.4%.
Gains this week go to the New Democrats (0.2 points to 15.9%), the Bloc Québécois (0.6 points nationally to 9.8%), and the fringe parties (0.5 points to 2.8%).
The Conservatives have moved in front in Ontario with 36.6%. The Liberals follow with 35%. The NDP is in third at 16.6%, which actually isn't bad for them in an EKOS poll. The Liberals maintain their lead in Toronto with 41.2% to the Conservatives' 35.8%, but the Tories are in front in Ottawa with 41.4%. The NDP gains eight points in the capital and stands at 18.6%.
In Quebec, the Bloc is up a little to 39.2%, but the Liberals are down around three points to 20.9%. The Conservatives are at 16%, still not good enough, while the NDP has dropped three to 9.3%. The Bloc maintains its lead in Montreal with 36%, followed by the Liberals at 27.9%. The NDP has dropped about five points here to 8.3%, perhaps endangering Thomas Mulcair's seat.
Things are relatively stable in British Columbia, the Tories still leading with 33.4% and 35.2% in Vancouver (up about five points). The NDP (25.6%) and the Liberals (25.3%) are still fighting for second, but are within striking distance of the Conservatives. The NDP is not doing well in Vancouver, however, as they are down about seven points to 21.4%. The Greens, at 12.1%, have dropped about four points since last week in the province.
There was a lot of movement in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies, likely due to the smaller sample size. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are up three points to 39.2%, while the Conservatives drop six to 29.5%. The NDP drops five to 22.1%. In the Prairies, the Tories gain seven and lead with 49.5%. The NDP also gains seven (23%) but the Liberals drop 14 to 15.3%.
In Alberta, things look odd because of a 7.3% result for "Other". The Liberals, though, gain three points and are at a very strong 20.3%.
The Conservatives win 129 seats, 67 of them in the West, 48 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 8 in Atlantic Canada.
The Liberals win 15 seats in the West, 45 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 20 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 94.
Thanks to weak Liberal, NDP, and Conservative results, the Bloc manages to win 55 seats in Quebec.
The NDP wins 13 seats in the West, 13 in Ontario, and 4 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 30.
This poll shows something we haven't seen much of lately: the combined Liberal-NDP seat totals being below that of the Conservatives. This isn't a necessarily good poll for the Tories as they are relatively stable, but it is a bad poll for the Liberals. They are beginning to fall away, their lead in Ontario seemingly most vulnerable.