Thursday, March 25, 2010

New EKOS Poll: 5.6-pt Conservative Lead

EKOS has its weekly poll out, and we're starting to see some movement.The Conservatives have remained steady, gaining 0.2 points over EKOS's poll last week. They now stand at 33.3%. The Liberals, however, have dropped 1.2 points to 27.7%. The Greens are also down, 0.4 points, to 10.4%.

Gains this week go to the New Democrats (0.2 points to 15.9%), the Bloc Québécois (0.6 points nationally to 9.8%), and the fringe parties (0.5 points to 2.8%).

The Conservatives have moved in front in Ontario with 36.6%. The Liberals follow with 35%. The NDP is in third at 16.6%, which actually isn't bad for them in an EKOS poll. The Liberals maintain their lead in Toronto with 41.2% to the Conservatives' 35.8%, but the Tories are in front in Ottawa with 41.4%. The NDP gains eight points in the capital and stands at 18.6%.

In Quebec, the Bloc is up a little to 39.2%, but the Liberals are down around three points to 20.9%. The Conservatives are at 16%, still not good enough, while the NDP has dropped three to 9.3%. The Bloc maintains its lead in Montreal with 36%, followed by the Liberals at 27.9%. The NDP has dropped about five points here to 8.3%, perhaps endangering Thomas Mulcair's seat.

Things are relatively stable in British Columbia, the Tories still leading with 33.4% and 35.2% in Vancouver (up about five points). The NDP (25.6%) and the Liberals (25.3%) are still fighting for second, but are within striking distance of the Conservatives. The NDP is not doing well in Vancouver, however, as they are down about seven points to 21.4%. The Greens, at 12.1%, have dropped about four points since last week in the province.

There was a lot of movement in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies, likely due to the smaller sample size. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are up three points to 39.2%, while the Conservatives drop six to 29.5%. The NDP drops five to 22.1%. In the Prairies, the Tories gain seven and lead with 49.5%. The NDP also gains seven (23%) but the Liberals drop 14 to 15.3%.

In Alberta, things look odd because of a 7.3% result for "Other". The Liberals, though, gain three points and are at a very strong 20.3%.

The Conservatives win 129 seats, 67 of them in the West, 48 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 8 in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals win 15 seats in the West, 45 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 20 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 94.

Thanks to weak Liberal, NDP, and Conservative results, the Bloc manages to win 55 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 13 seats in the West, 13 in Ontario, and 4 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 30.

This poll shows something we haven't seen much of lately: the combined Liberal-NDP seat totals being below that of the Conservatives. This isn't a necessarily good poll for the Tories as they are relatively stable, but it is a bad poll for the Liberals. They are beginning to fall away, their lead in Ontario seemingly most vulnerable.


  1. As Peter said in the last thread....

    This is excellent news for the opposition.

  2. The Gov't leads every demographic except 2:Uni.Ed./Francophone.

    The resistance in QC is holding up well!

    The tacking left again will take time to unite the opposition.

  3. It looks like Angus Reid was correct and ahead of the curve.

  4. I expect another point or two down for the LPC next week after the mess this week. Don't know who will pick it up.

    EKOS says LPC seat totals would be little changed from the last election.

  5. Worse is yet to come. This poll does not take into account the abortion blow up game the Liberals ran on themselves. Following that up with an elitist wild ideas conference.... Wow!!

    AND the Liberals have already voted (by procedural mistake) non-confidence. They have to hope that Millikin does not rule that the vote on access to the secret documents should stand.

    A vote asking the Government to break the law is clearly one of non-confidence. If Millikin rules it is a valid vote there is no way to avoid a coalition forced election.

    Their excuse..... we didn't want an election, we did not consider the consequences of our actions. We were just trying to bug Harper.

    Last election campaign the Liberals dropped 8 pts from polls at the drop of the writ to election results. Is 18% possible of the Liberals?

  6. No BC 18% isn't possible now. Not likely in the future either. I think 24% is about as low as they can go.

    The big problem is getting enough people into the CPC tent. wavering over family planning doesn't do it.

  7. BC, I don't think Harper wants an election right now. I think in your scenario the most likely outcome is Harper requesting a vote in parliament to reaffirm that he holds the confidence of the house after that odd vote. At which point someone would be required to swallow again.

    I am looking at the BC numbers tho..... Tories at 33 in BC and 35 in Vancouver ??? more in the metropolis than in the rest of the province??? seems odd to me.

    Similarly in Ontario... 37 but 36 in Toronto and 42 in Ottawa. Will the Tories really gain seats in Toronto and give up seats in the rural areas??

  8. The gender gap too.... what happened? Iggy used to lead stronger among women than men.

    But today his split is 1.2% stronger for men.

    Similarly, the Tories seem to have erased much of the gender gap, with only a 1.5% spread men to women.

  9. Earl

    How did the magic 24% floor for the Liberals get established?

    Maybe the CPC will not get to 50% but surely the Liberal core supporters, public service unions and people who want a strong central government that looks after you from birth to grave, can easily drift over to the NDP.

    Mr. Layton, provided his health holds up, can run a very credible campaign with his limited resources.

    Why would anyone think that Mr. Ignatieff can campaign any better than Mr. Dion? There is no evidence of a build up of the Liberal infrastructure and/or grass roots support or ideas.

    Mr. Kinsella and Donolo were barely adequate when running against Stockwell Day and Joe Clark. By all rights Chretien should of expected 50%+ support.

  10. BC I'll admit it is an arbitrary number that I believe is the base level of LPC support for now. Clearly it's just my opinion. I don't see NDP support growing because their policies repel most Canadians. When they were perceived as moderate by Canadians with a moderate leader they did better. I'm talking of the Ed Broadbent era. If they had someone of that quality and moderated their policies the NDP could seriously challenge the current LPC. Fortunately they have Jack Layton who rubs a lot of us the wrong way and their policies remain overly strident. Remember the NDP has some members so left wing - the Waffle - that it had to cleanse itself twenty or thirty years ago to avoid the fringe label.

  11. Earl, BC, i'll take 24% Liberals any day. There were 7 seats the CPC lost by less then 2%. Harper will probably come out +5 seats in the next election. Not quite a majority but close enough given how often Liberals don't show up for work.

    Liberals have no platform or organization right now. They'd certainly lose an election if they forced one.

    But why ?

    This is the best time to govern. Harper can flood the HOC with legislation he wants, call it a confidence vote, and get some more achievements under his belt.

  12. BC VOR,

    18% seems very low, I can't find any historical data to support it.

    The LPOC are 1.4% above their 10-14.08 General Election defeat.

    Has the party recovered enough repaired their organization to hold or improve the 1.4% by dumping Dion and hiding Green Shift? 11.24.09 demostrates they did not in four contest. P.O.P. has trended south since 2000.

    Can they regain the progressive base from the green, bloc, ndp?

    The CPC have been trending up holding steady with P.O.P. around 35% base with effective GOTV strategies to increase seats in winnable ridings.

  13. And the detainees documents thing just blew up again, the Cons tabled 2,500 pages of redacted, censored documents in the House.

    Now the Speaker HAS to rule!! This is a straight insult to Parliament !!

    Gee that 66% rejection of the Tories could easily rise higher seems to me given their performance of late?

  14. BC VOR, Shadow,

    If you ignore the noise and examine only General Election Results since 2000 a significant trendline is evident. 40.8% -26.3% (4 General Elections)

    A significant Progressive pop vote has shifted from the Liberals to the NDP, Green. The NDP were 8.5% National 13 seats. NDP held 1 seat in Ontario.

  15. Peter the speaker isn't ruling on anything until he hears from the responsible ministers.

    And they are taking their sweet, sweet time so this story dies down and the opposition loses momentum.

  16. Barcs good call!

    Today's documents are a huge THUMB IN THE EYE of the opposition.

    Its essentially the gov't introducing a confidence motion.

    Now the speaker has no choice but to rule Derek Lee's motion in order.

    And when MPs vote the Liberals will LOSE THE VOTE !!

    Confidence maintained. Awesome legislation passed because the CPC will govern as if they had a majority.

  17. Peter

    The speaker has to rule.

    Should he rule that the rights of Parliament, as based on the non-confidence vote, needs to be upheld how does the coalition avoid forcing an election?

    If the coalition does indeed force an election, especially on this non-issue.... not willing to wait for Icaboucci ruling... I could see the BLOC being able to hang on to their support to become the official opposition.

    Barcs suggested that Harper might offer them a do over confidence vote where they are allowed to back away from their games-playing forcing an election.

    Would they eat crow and apologize or go to the polls and hope for the Harper/cocaine boat hookers photos to show up and save them from total annihilation?

    They are nearing a point where Stockwell Day was. There could be 2 or 3 stumps walking away from the Liberal Caucus..... 1) Codere's Quebec wing 2) Danny William's Newfies and 3) The pro-life group that have just had their hands forced and faces slapped in public with the Bob Rae abortion motion.

    And the economy recovers and the jobless rate goes down.


    "How'd they vote" updated attendance this morning. Sorted by absences shows a red sea in the poor category.

    Parliament resumed on Mar 3. today is the 25th... so yesterday was 15 days that parliament has sat.

    ... 7 liberals have been absent 14 times. including those 7... 31 have missed sitting 10 times( or more)

    207 MP's have not missed yet..... only 8 of them were liberals.

    Were liberals really so outraged about parliament being prorogued? Would their vote go up if they showed up to work to vote??

  19. BC

    The speaker has to rule."

    Agreed he has to rule on the motion passed Dec 10.

    Should he find the Govt in contempt then the question of response comes up.

    He can, on his own authority order the Sergeant at Arms to secure the un-redacted documents.

    He doesn't require any further vote for that. The original motion of Dec 10 gives him the authority. No further vote is required !

    It may require a further motion to haul the resonsible Ministers before the Bar of the House, i'm not sure.

  20. I am not sure he can Peter.

    This is a point of privilege. As I understand it, if he rules in favor of one of the Point of privledges that the Dec 10 motion was ignored.... then there would be a vote on the remedy motioned contained within the point of privilege.

    In effect... a confidence vote.

  21. Barcs, that is not a fair point about Liberal absences. Many MPs were deliberate absent in order to pass the budget.

  22. I am also wondering how far off an election could be.

    This parliament has been 1 yr 141 days (3rd session now).

    That is now past the average 1 yr 140 days. 5th longest out of 12. By the end of April it will be the 4th.

  23. "Barcs, that is not a fair point about Liberal absences. Many MPs were deliberate absent in order to pass the budget."

    Is that better than a regular absence?? or worse??

    And second.... that adds up to 23 liberals. That leaves 54 that could have made every vote... how does that compare to 8??

    Third. That was only a couple votes.... lets assume it was 4. 35 liberals have 4 or less absences..... 42 have more than 4.

    Is it really only the budget votes that they don't bother to do their job for?

  24. Barcs
    "then there would be a vote on the remedy motioned contained within the point of privilege.

    In effect... a confidence vote."

    That's what I meant by "Response". But I don't know if that is actually a confidence motion. In particular if they use Derek Lee's motion there is a clause in it that declares it is not a confidence vote.

    Now of course Harper can declare they will view it as a confidence vote. Going to the GG on it might be a bit dicey though? She would have to consult the speaker in this situation I think.

  25. AJR

    Yes if 2/3rds of the public don't like you you might want to question why ??

  26. The GG consults with no-one in government except the PM. She can fire the PM and ask a member of the opposition to form a government. Then she consults with PM. Tradition has it.

    Yes parliament has to vote on Lee's motion IF the speaker decides it is in order. The government decides what is and is not confidence exceptions being all money bills and specific non confidence motions moved by the opposition. The government can declare any vote it so desires as one of confidence.

  27. Barcs,

    Re: Toronto seats vulnerable?

    % Margin Gaps have been greatly reduced. 10,000+ lead reduced to striking distance since 2000 in several ridings.

    Yes. Follow the leaders saving existing seats in 2009 tour extended to 2010.
    Look at each party, leader with their teams where they are spending their time and making announcements.

    Pundits Guide has a list of many seats 5% from 2008. A query pulls up 42 seats.

    Another query 3 way race - 15 ridings

    Look at Jason Kenny travel into ethnic/urban ridings.

  28. Peter if he can get an extra 7 % Harper has a majority. Not that difficult in my opinion. Iggy looks like he is trying to force another election. The Afghan detainee question is not one people care about in large enough numbers.

  29. Eric it is indeed a fair point that Barcs makes.

    If Liberals need to abstain they do so by sitting on their hands during the vote. That is the proper response.

    You don't do it by skipping work. Unacceptable and hypocritcal after the prorogation stink they raised.

    But this isn't a new phenomena. Every since the Liberals lost gov't they have had the worst attendance record of all parties.

    Its like they only want to be MPs if they can be in gov't. Its a spoiled and entitled attitude that won't sit well with people.

  30. Peter you're getting your facts wrong again.

    Please read this very closely:

    "Once the Speaker rules ... the House of Commons immediately considers a motion from the Member who raised the matter."


    "If the motion is defeated, no further action is taken."

    The speaker CANNOT act alone in calling for the documents. And if the HOC defeats the corrective motion the matter is considered dropped.

  31. Wow. 1% change from last poll and now the thread is cluttered with bragging about probably governing majorities. I guess it's too much too hope for that the government would try and govern with the consent of the population rather than gamble on peaking with an extra 2-4% on election day.

    The nature of things like the Afghan detainee issue is such that it doesn't matter how many people it resonates with unless that number is over 60%. Otherwise the Conservatives still have all the votes they need.

  32. Kevin Sutton I'd be quite happy NOt to have an election. We do NOT need one. If Iggy pushes for one he'll get it. His choice! IMO a bad choice. This isn't the issue nor the time!

  33. I'm with Earl.

    No election needed. The opposition has backed down and still has no spine.

    They're out of opposition days for the rest of this supply period too.

    Time for the gov't to pass important legislation between now and the summer break.

  34. Will a Federal Wild Rose Alliance rise in Alberta causing vote splitting?

  35. Seems Mr. Harper isn't all that ideological after all my LPC friends. Today he defended the government's stimulus spending against attacks from the Fraser Institute, saying they were ideologically driven:

  36. 1. "You are ignoring the will of the house"
    2. "You will be forced to give us the documents"
    3. "This is not an assertion of our confidence in this house to govern appropriately??"

    Huh? Given 1 and 2 peter... how does 3 fit in at all?

    Why would it be put into any motion? Especially when the government can declare it a confidence motion anyway??

    I thought it was only the tories that played partisan games.... that sure looks like one. Brinkmanship... but please please please don't pull the plug because I am only sort of serious in forcing you, I just want it to look like I am.

    I don't get it at all.

    I don't remember if it came out yet, but when is the speaker expected to rule on those 3 points of privilege??

  37. J, what you are talking about is another version of the Reform party showing up on the federal level.

    I think the Tories that tried it last time learned their lesson. Split the right, and Chretien governs with a majority with 38.46% of the vote... while the reform/pc vote adds up to 38% of the vote and less than 1/2 the seats. (1997 numbers)

    I know I would have to be really sure that a new reform party (or WRA)could take control of the entire right if I was every to support a change.

  38. Something weird is happening in Alberta, over the last few months their "other" has been pretty high.

    I have seen complaints that Harper isn't "right" enough and people in Alberta always seem to be upset with the power in Quebec. Maybe a a Wild Rose Bloc will emerge, who knows but something is up out west.

  39. Shadow, I agree

    1)J, 85% approval rate from his actual base I agree Harper is doomed. (Too cute by half)

    He should follow the Liberal Policy GPS and how to whip votes manual instead.

    2) Dan Donvon on Adler was wonderful. He laid bare the serious problems with the "heart and soul" of the Liberal Party.

    Many long time centrist Liberals are not comfortable with the NDP Foreign Policy from Rae, Dosanj.

    He laid into Ignatieff for his lack of experience and inability to stop the failed socialists takeover of key areas of the LPOC.

  40. Eric,

    Thank you

    It was becoming quite disgusting

    I can name a 100 or more examples of foolish statements from EVERY party.

    The left is becoming unhinged????

  41. J - That "other" vote is probably a lot of frustration of Harper not being very conservative (even the commenters on find his criticism of the Fraser Institute laughable). Also, there may be confusion on the part of the respondents (confusion that mostly disappears during actual campaigns) over which Conservatives are being asked about. Albertans, for the most part, really dislike the provincial Tories right now, so when asked about voting Conservative many may well offer a knee-jerk Other response without really thinking it through.

    I'm sure a provincial WRA victory in Alberta would clear the air quite a bit, but that's not going to happen until 2012 at the earliest (and note that the WRA is led by a former Fraser Institute intern, not that that means a lot, as Rob Anders was also a Fraser Institute intern - so was Ezra Levant).

  42. Eric I see you deleted your own comment in which you incorrectly stated that there had been no genocide in Iraq.

    For future reference:

  43. Weird.

    Comments seem to be dissapearing.

    Generaly when a blog author, especially with a background in history, makes an "oops" they issue a correction and not try to hide it.

    In the day and age of screen grabs and caches it looks silly.

    For future reference:

  44. Shadow, just shut it. You said that there was a "genocide of Muslims" in Iraq. Obviously, there wasn't.

    Was there one against the Kurds? Obviously. But you didn't say that. And it took place 14 years before the invasion. NATO was ensuring the safety of the Kurds in the north following the first Gulf War.

    I didn't make an "oops", I deleted comments from a discussion that was spiraling out of control (ie, your implication I was a Holocaust denier, someone else claiming the US was practicing genocide).

    If you'd like to have your comments continue to appear on this blog, I suggest you learn how to behave.

  45. And if you haven't figured it out, no more on this topic.

  46. Eric for future reference the religion practiced by the Kurdish people is a form of Islam.

    They are considered Muslims.

  47. You don't seem to understand genocide. They weren't being killed because they were Muslims, but rather because they were Kurds. If Saddam was conducting a genocide against Muslims, then he would've been trying to kill the entire country of Iraq.

  48. ""Once the Speaker rules ... the House of Commons immediately considers a motion from the Member who raised the matter.""

    But if three member each presented motions then where does he go ??

  49. Eric

    Shadow, just shut it. You said that there was a "genocide of Muslims" in Iraq. Obviously, there wasn't.

    Just another of his continuing flood of LIES

    Ignore him IMO

  50. Why don't we just try to remember
    one thing here.

    EVERYTHING is the fault of the LPOC.

    When people here have a grievance just remember it is the fault of the LPOC.

    People who are liberals have nothing to add to the debate, because obviously we are all stupid, and just haven't seen the light.

    AJR79 was dismayed, at the tone of debate a few weeks ago, and called me to task.

    The conservatives here today (and the NDP) have not exactly covered themselves in glory today.

  51. Shadow Eric and Peter are correct. the Kurds of Iraq and Turkey want to form a Kurdish nation, fully independent. Both Iraq and Turkey oppose this development. Here's reference:

  52. Eric I must be missing something. What did I do wrong today?

  53. Hey everybody, did anybody notice that Ekos has a new poll out? Éric should post something about it so we can discuss it. Wait a minute... oh yeah, never mind.

    Anyway, one line in the Ekos commentary was, An interesting side bar is that for possibly the first time the Green Party vote is (insignificantly) ahead with under 25 voters.

    I think that "insignificantly" is overstating the case; pollsters should know far better than to read anything into a 0.7% lead with a 6.8% margin of error. However, it does show an clear trend. The Green vote averages a slow but steady increase, but the youth Green vote has been growing much faster.

    The Green challenge is to get youth into the polling booth.

    And another Ekos statement with much behind it: For GP supporters, there is small comfort in knowing that their share of the national vote exceeds the Bloc Quebecois vote yet they are more likely to get no seats versus the 40 to 50 ticketed to the BQ. I think the chance of a breakthrough Green seat or two in the next election is good, but the point stands.

  54. Hi Earl,

    I know you weren't addressing me, but I will offer you my apologies.

    I was not taking issue with anything you posted today.

    You missed a lot of wackiness, and that is why Shadow, and DL were deleted.

  55. How can a poll that is bad for the Liberals not be good news for the Tories? Also, the numbers in BC are curious. When the provincial total for the Conservatives is lower than their Vancouver result something is awry. The Tory lead in BC could be seriously underestimated in this poll.

  56. 49 thanks for the explanation. Not surprising news is it?

  57. Earl,

    That is why I like being in the middle.

    Too far left, or too far right, obviously is not healthy for your mental health.

  58. 49 I'd say I'm a social liberal and a fiscal conservative. However I believe in Keynesian Economics if properly applied. I'd also really like to see government at all levels really define what it needs to do and get out of the rest. That said I think we need a national catastrophic illness drug plan with premiums paid by virtually everyone over 18. We also need to do the things government decides it has a role in well. That means better education and health care.

    We also need to break out of the paper qualifications syndrome so we can better used our doctors, nurses and teachers. Teachers and nurses DO NOT need university training in many cases. Secondary and upper elementary teachers do, others don't and kindergarten can better be taught by early childhood educators. Nurse practitioners can do some of the work of doctors. Nurses don not need university degrees in most cases!

  59. Hi Earl thanks for the article link.

    The kurds also practice a different form of sunni Islam than Saddam's people.

    The marsh arabs he targetted were, of course, shia.

    As is often the case with genocide its different religious sects targetting each other.

    The genocide of Muslims in Iraq was a truly unfortunate event.

  60. Éric, it's not just you. It appears there's something going around.

  61. John its those crazy right wingers.

    The tea partiers in the US, Ann Coulter, the Tories in the house of commons.

    Let's all take a moment to recognize the disasteful behaviour of people on the right side of the spectrum and bask in our enlightenment as the only ones sophisticated enough to point out such terrible, terrible behaviour.

  62. Uh Shadow the fact that those subject to Saddam's genocides at various times happen to be Muslim is incidental. The Kurds as you correctly pointed out are a separate and distinct group of Muslims as are the the Shias. Saying it so doesn't make it so.

  63. Earl,

    --- What did I do wrong today?

    Nothing, why? I enjoy reading your comments.

    Thanks for your post above in response of Shadow. It's like saying that the Nazis were conducting a genocide against Europeans. It really does a disservice to the actual people being targeted in these crimes.


    --- Éric, it's not just you. It appears there's something going around.

    Chantal Hébert has also identified this problem. I really think it is scary the sort of things that are posted in response to news stories and the like. All of this anger seems to be boiling under the surface.

    I want to institute comment moderation, only to more easily weed out the rudeness, but I think it would be too much work and would discourage the good posters.

  64. Earl,

    Keynes, believed in a mixed economy. He believed government had a role to play.

    I believe government has a role to play.

    There is probably quite a bit of overlap between the three levels of government. Good luck trying to get them to give up any of their turf.

    I believe in Universal health care, but I am not so blindly idealogical, as to realize we have to do something with our system.

    It is gobbling up more of the provincial budget every year. With no discernable results.

    I was we could have an honest debate in this country about our health care system, without all the fear mongering, and scare tactics.

    Our population is aging, and our system as it is, is not sustainable.

    Why would it be a crime to maybe look at other countries with a private/public system, who still offer all their citizens coverage, and produce better results.

    As for the drugs, yes I agree. A person who needs expensive drugs, should not have to worry whether they can afford their medication.
    They should not have to decide between medication or food.

    In my province however we have, a pharmacare program, based on income. After you reach your deductible, your medication is free.

    There is no national standard, it is patchwork across the country.

    The provinces run health care, and they do not want any federal intrusion. They just want the feds to hand over the money, and let them do their own thing.

    As for your points on paper qualifications I agree. We should also be making better use of our health care personnel.

    As for the kindergarten, an early childhood educator, is perfectly qualified to do that. I have a relative in that profession, who would be perfectly qualified to do that.

    We never can seem as a country to think of the common good. If you try to discuss the health care system, you get the usual hysterics. Canadians always say they want truth and honesty from politicians, but I think we almost force our politicians to talk down to us, because of the way we act.

    If you have any suggestions how to straighten this whole mess out, maybe you should be in office.

  65. Earl it all goes hand in hand. Religious differences contribute to sectarian differences, just as racial, linguistic, or cultural differences can too.

    Muslim is a general term that encompasses both Kurds and Marsh Arabs.

    Most conflict in the middle east is based around religious differences as opposed to racial, even the arab-persian divide is more a Sunni-Shia thing.

    Anyways what happened to the marsh arabs must not be forgoten. 500,000 reduced to 20,000. Very disturbing.

  66. Eric, Just so you don't feel alone if you've been having comment problems.

    As you know, I am in fovour of less censorship as opposed to more, but do respect that the commentary is in your purview.

  67. Decent 35 minute Agenda clip on Senate reform, but nothing too spectacular.

    Marjory Lebreton assures us thou, that the days of bagmen and hacks, was over 50 years ago. LOL

    Dan Hays, the formal Liberal senator, can speak a little more freely, and comes out with some good and reasonable points.

  68. Shadow,

    I'm sorry I missed that conversation. I would definately been interested, to judge it for myself.

    I see also that you have trouble letting go a subject like this, when you think you are right. I can also sypathize with that.

    I think you would be right to use the word genocide to descibe what happened to the Kurds, but I think it was motivated more by politics and culture, then religion.

    I have only one question for you on the matter, and then I suggest we let it drop...

    Were you trying to use that as a justification for the Iraq War?

    Please be terse in your response.

  69. 49 Steps,

    I would like to clairify my "taking you to task" in the other thread. First off I'm pleased that you took it to heart.

    It's not that I thought you were the worst offender of the Ad Hominem fallicy, against Shadow (Josh/Peter takes the cake),

    I just saw you piling on with them, and was disappointed.

    Your last comment here shows, what I believe to be true. You can contribute to a good discussion about policy, in a meaningful way.

    There is no need for you to stoop to their levels of uncivility.

    You have probably noticed that I can be a bit mean myself. Usuallly I restrict my fire until I have been fired at, and if things get too rude I try and use a bit of humour with my barbs, to take the edge off a bit.

    Constant Ad Hominems are tedious to read. I would even try to refrain from using them against Harper, if you want to have good policy discussions.

    Having debated Shadow myself a time or two, I realize that he/she can sometimes get under your skin, when you feel your position is being grossly misrepresented.

    The key is to not let the anger boil too hotly, and an extra proofread to see if your remark is warrented.

    Also, don't take things too seriously. It's only a comments section, of a rather obscure blog (no offense Eric, your blog is great)

  70. AJR79 I brought up the multiple genocides committed by Saddam as a means to put the Iraq war in a historical context.

    Our thinking about WW2, which is grossly simplified to the point of being inaccurate, is that we went after Hitler because he was killing all the jews.

    The question is whether such moral thinking and obligations apply to events in non-European countries.

    The fact that Saddam is now gone is cause for celebration regardless of the cause.

    DL took issue with the entire proposition and accused the Americans of a genocide against muslims.

    Regardless at no point was 49 steps part of the conversation. He was indeed just piling on at the end.

    Also my dressing down from Eric was worth a chuckle or two. Yes ma'am i'm working on my behaviour!

  71. Let's all try and remember here:

    Two Thirds of Canadians DO NOT support the Conservative Party.

    Let's try and maintain perspective !!

  72. Peter,

    I think we should all learn to put polls in perspective.

    They go up, they go down.

    Harper, could really step in it and his numbers would tank.

    Conversely Ignatieff could do the same, and Harper would sky rocket.

    I think what most polls are showing us is that Canadians for the most part are not enthused about their choices.

    Harper at 33% is polling below his 08 result.

    The Liberals can't seem to get any traction either.

    Polls are showing uu that Canadians are not prepared to hand the CPC a majority.

    An election now would produce another ground hog day scenario.

    If Canadians could have "None of the above" on the ballot, that choice would probably win the election in a landslide.

  73. Too cute by half in 2008:

    73.7% rejected the LPOC

    2009 in four contests LPOC failed to win a single seat. Heck the CPC won 50% including one from the Bloc.

    The latest poll on this threat shows the LPOC 1.4% above the worst P.O.P. in 150 years.

    Incredible a Liberal wants to draw out numbers and facts.

    Thankfully the courts and a friendly judge provided the deadbeats another two year extension on the failed Montreal mistake contest in 2006.

    Even Elections Canada is going back to court to refuse and collect the GST overpayments.

    I could use a roadtrip to Montreal and grab a smoke meat sandwich with some comedy from the "deep tinkers of old Liberals"

  74. Ekos in 2008 had the CPC underpolled by 3pts and Greens over 3 pts.

    They had LPC at 26 vs 26.3.

    Every pollster did not capture the Sunday around the table boost of family and friends sending the CPC with an increased mandate.

    GOTV matter, money for TV ads. Relying on Youtube, radio spots won't cut it in 2010-2011.

    Another series of loans will possibly bankrupt the Liberals if they can secure them.

    Dependency on Political subsidy will be introduced in campaign and opposition parties will be defending their "entitlement".

  75. CS

    Will you give it a rest.

    Your constant flame throwing, is getting to be annoying and boring.

    You do nothing but trash, trash, trash.

    Do you think that adds anything to debate?

    Earl is a conservative, but he always shows respect towards those who disagree with him.

    You are starting to sound like a 1 trick pony.

    We all know what you are going to say and do when you show up here.

    You are always preaching about an intolerant left.

    Maybe you Sir should look in the mirror. You are the intolerant right.

    Your constant ad hominen, and ad nauseum attacks against the LPOC are frankly becoming useless.

    It would be nice if you could at least try to contribute to the debate in a meaningful way.

  76. 49

    "If Canadians could have "None of the above" on the ballot, that choice would probably win the election in a landslide."

    Yes I have to agree. The current choices leave a lot to be desired. Another Tory minority, even if weaker than the current, shows the public displeasure most vividly.

    I would love to have the opportunity to vote "None Of The above" !!

  77. From the keyboard:

    49 Steps said...

    How exactly is Canada going to look at the G8?

    Like a bunch of ass backwards rubes, thats how.

    Reproductive choice, and a woman's right to control her own body should be a fundamental basic right of all women.

    More so in the third world, with the devastating poverty.

    Why on earth do we want to encourage women in Africa to have more children when they can not feed and put clothes on the ones they already have.

    Does anybody think a women having 13 or 14 children is healthy.

    I thought the initiative was about maternal health and children.

    Harper and the conservative party are nothing but a bunch of right wing religious crackpots.

    This initiative is a farce, just a chance for Harper to try and show he is trying to do something, anything at the G8.

    I will now indulge in some of Shadow's favourite activity "Idle Speculation, and predict that Harper will no doubt have Canada looking like a jack ass.

    Once again

    23 March, 2010 20:39

    You have repeatedly attacked me on my posts after pleading to be left alone. Again follow your own advice.

  78. 49 Step - Yes, "Keynes, believed in a mixed economy. He believed government had a role to play." That's true.

    But Keynes also thought that role should be limited. He placed a hard limit on the amount of the economy that should be government action, and that limit was 25%.

    In Canada, we're over 40%. Much of Europe exceeds 50%. We abandoned Keynes for Marx long ago.

  79. Re: Ira

    OCED data (admittedly an average of 2004-2007) seems to suggest that government spending in Europe is mostly well under 50%.

    Now I wasn't aware of whether Keynes had stated that only under 25% of the economy should be government expenditures, but he may have been referring to efforts to manage a recession or depression through stimulus, not welfare policies. I don't know how he felt about welfare state policies at all, in fact.

    Regardless of that; Marxism would not have a private sector, (Or democracy) and even Socialism wouldn't have independent means of production. What we all have today is a capitalist welfare state.

    I think this happens to be a model that works just fine.

  80. Kevin that chart may be a little misleading.

    It doesn't seem to include gov't spending on servicing the national debt which is easily worth a couple points of GDP in several of those countries.

    And much of gov't spending is often hidden in sub-national budgets depending on how federalized a state is.

    Its one of the reasons Canada often looks so good in these types of statistics. Unfortunately when you factor in the budgets of Ontario and Quebec things doesn't look as pretty.

  81. kevinsutton - that only measures spending. How about production? What percentage of wages paid are paid by the government (or indirectly by the government - say private contractors working for the government)?

    That OECD number is only the shallowest of analyses.


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