Friday, March 26, 2010

Projection: 128 CPC, 100 LPC, 51 BQ, 29 NDP

I finally have some time to work on a new projection, and the result is completely underwhelming. At the national level, we have no seat changes, a 0.1 point drop for the Conservatives, and a 0.1 point gain for the Greens.There is some more interesting movement at the regional level, however.

Let's start with British Columbia. The big winners here are the Greens, who gain 0.7 points and are now at 12%. The Conservatives only drop 0.1 points to 35.7%, but the Liberals and New Democrats each drop 0.4, down to 24.9% and 25.4%, respectively. The Greens are still very far from putting Ms. May in an position to win, but the Conservatives are doing well to have stopped their decline.

In Alberta, the Conservatives have dropped big: 0.6 points to 58.4%. The Liberals have gained 0.3 points and are now at 17.9%. They continue to do well in the province. It is a real trend. The Greens have gained 0.2 and reach double-digits, while the NDP is up 0.1 points to 10.8%.

In the Prairies, the Greens again have the biggest movement with a gain of 0.7 points to reach 7.3%. The Conservatives are down 0.6 points, but still lead with 46.9%. The NDP has dropped 0.4 points to 23.1% and the Liberals are up 0.2 to 21.3%. The Conservatives are showing some fragility here, but it seems neither the Liberals nor the NDP have taken advantage.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have dropped 0.2 points to 35.8%. The NDP has gained 0.1 points to reach 16%, while the Greens are down 0.1 to 10.3%. The Liberals are steady at 36.4%. That is a tiny lead for them, but they need to keep it.

In Quebec, the Greens make the biggest jump with a gain of 0.3 points to 7.5%. The Liberals are down 0.2 points to 24.8% while the Conservatives are down 0.1 points to 17.4%. Both the NDP and Bloc Québécois are steady with 11.3% and 37.9%, respectively. The Bloc continues to remain strong, while the two main federalist alternatives are unable to make gains.

In Atlantic Canada, the NDP has dropped 0.3 points to 23.9%. The Greens are up 0.2 points to 6.4%, while the Conservatives are down 0.1 points to 31.1%. The Liberals are steady at 36.9%, an important lead for them.

Finally, in the North there is no movement.

This is a relatively ho-hum update for all of the parties, but the winner of the last 17 days has to be the Greens. For some reason, they have made gains in five of the six regions, and two of them (in BC and the Prairies) were significant.

The big loser has to be the Conservative Party. They dropped in every part of the country. The silver lining, however, is that the big drops came in regions they already dominate (Alberta and the Prairies). Everywhere else the decline was tiny.

40 comments:

  1. Essentially a lock at this point.

    Why ??

    Because I don't see anything out there to grab the public's attention personally.

    No big issue or new ideas. The only thing I do see is possibly less public support for the Tories but that is scratching for it IMO.

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  2. I think there is a simple reason why the Greens seem to have gained a bit of ground - its because they have been getting no publicity whatsoever in the past month! As long as they get no publicity, they are the de facto none of the above party that people can project whatever they want onto. The moment that people get reminded that the Green party is about abrasive scolds like Elizabeth May - they support melts away.

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  3. DL might have a point. Not that Elizbeth May drives away support (she might - I don't know), but that these days the only way any of the parties get noticed is when they shoot themselves in the foot.

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  4. Since the Greens are unlikely to have any effect on the next election I say we ignore them until they at least get a House seat ?

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  5. Peter,

    The greens did have a house seat.

    Disgraced Liberal floor crosser Blair Wilson.

    I think in the last election, he didn't even get his deposit back.

    I don't know about May's chances.

    It does seem like an uphill climb for her against Lunn.

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  6. 49 steps isn't the threshold for getting your deposit back 10% ?

    Wilson got 14.4% so I think he did.

    http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding_e.php?riding=1251

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  7. Shadow,

    Thanks

    I wasn't sure, and I didn't check before I posted.

    I notice 0 independents, on the board.

    What no Arthur Andre?

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  8. I'd say off hand that they won't be a factor except to siphon off some NDP votes ?

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  9. I think alot of people will probably just say the Green Party as a bit of a "joke" when a pollster phones.

    I do think though that they should be left out of polling, Eric is only going by the what the polster report on but I think that if the pollster isn't going to list every party recognized by Elections Canada they shouldn't mention the Greens. Either list all the parties or just the parties represented in the HOC.

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  10. I still don't get what is with the Liberal rise in Alberta. Starting to bother me.

    Anyways, I think its going to be boring for the next while, in terms of political movement, though I want to see next week's Ekos poll after that gaffe in the House. I don't know if anyone actually cares, mind you.

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  11. I think it will be interesting to see if the Liberals conference this weekend and the results of it will lead to any bounce for them in the next Ekos poll. Though we might need to wait till the week after to see the effects of the conference.

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  12. 49

    Remember the discussion on another thread of the idea of "None of the Above"?

    I'm wondering if that isn't the reason for the rise in the Green vote ??

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  13. I swear "None of the above" would win a landslide victory.

    I think the polls are showing, Canadians are just "not into" any
    of the federal parties right now.

    After this week even I find my patience being tested, by the Liberals.

    There were some significant reversals or flip flops, by the cons. That is what should have been highlighted.

    The Liberals love to navel gaze, and put the spotlight, on themselves rather than Harper.

    As for the conference. Who knows at this point what will come out of it.

    I know one thing, Cuzner sure can't count.

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  14. J,

    I don't think there will be a bounce. This isn't really a "high profile event" - it's a policy conference. The bump the Liberals will get from it is if they come out a week after with a draft of policies, say "this is where we're starting," and actually show some goddamn policies for once.

    I've been getting good vibes so far though. So 49 Steps, have some confidence - if this goes off well, we're looking at good times ahead. I don't know how it'll work really, my policy conference bit isn't until tomorrow in my riding. This will be interesting.

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  15. Peter - If you look at the Ekos charts that show their poll results over time, the appearance of the Other category coincides with a sudden drop in both Conservative and Green support. Some of those Green votes before then may have been people who were just avoiding the mainstream parties (and before Other arrived, Green was the nearest option to None). And some of those Conservative voters may be annoyed there's no option to the right of the Conservatives, so are telling the pollsters Other to make a point.

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  16. I wonder who Ann Coulter would vote for.

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  17. Volkov,

    That's easy... herself.

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  18. Volkov,

    I hope you are right.

    It all seems rather depressing right now.

    But hey haven't the Liberals been written off for dead many times before?

    As for Coulter, for Gawds sake, should she even be allowed to vote?

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  19. Volkov so far the press i've seen has been negative because Iggy didn't invite his caucus.

    Its feeding into this "he's aloof and disconnected" narrative built around the abortion mishap, the Newfoundland rebellion, and the Codere/Nancy Charest/Krieber thing.

    Inviting his Quebec caucus and candidates might have been a good strategy to show unity and a dedication to making a Quebec breakthrough.

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  20. Helena Guergis and Rahim Jaffer.

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  21. Shadow,

    The caucus is invited - everyone is. We're holding these consultations across the country. Candidates and current MPs are in their ridings holding meetings and watching and talking through technology and generating their own narrative. There is no "rejection" of caucus or candidates - we wanted our candidates and MPs in our ridings and doing their jobs.

    And just to note, there is no Coderre/Kreiber/Charest mishap. The latter two never made enough of a wave to matter.

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  22. If we don't have riding by riding Polling information how do your project the Elizabeth May riding win?

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  23. Ann would vote for Ignatieff pre Liberal Party.

    He was a great Bush Doctrine cheerleader. The Charlie Rose interview and articles talked about lowering targeted assasination.

    In Ireland he praised G.W. and the pentagon as was disgusted by Canada's bogue peacekeeping reputation.

    Scary thoughts:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ibds01tEO3A

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C43ewgn9CFk

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  24. Volkov its the media that spins narratives, not average citizens.

    So of course they took note of Nancy Charest and Krieber.

    The average person probably didn't care that the family planning motion was messed up either since it was non-binding and complicated.

    Yet the people who watch this stuff for a living were talking about how it was an epic once in a lifetime occurance that pushed Iggy into Dion land and required the firing of Cuzner and Goodale.

    Rightly or wrongly the coverage i've seen of the speakers conference so far has been negative.

    We'll see if that turns around.

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  25. --- If we don't have riding by riding Polling information how do your project the Elizabeth May riding win?

    I've determined the level of Green upport needed in British Columbia to make a win by May in Saanich-Gulf Island possible.

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  26. Volkov,

    If I named some non active party person I would agree.

    Remember the Tom Flanagan comparison with Shelly Glover smackdown down?

    The three names I used are significant and what they said what more significant.

    1) Quebec wont come to Toronto led Liberal Party
    2) Divisions
    3) Denis Coderre is not invisible in Question Period. He was NOT a back bencher nobody.

    Nancy Charest almost won her seat agains the Bloc and is running again. The Star Candidate via Cauchon pulled out. The fundraising and profile of Denis in Quebec should not be dismissed.

    Will MI not endorse or sign his nomination papers?

    Paul Martin went on his listening tour after losing his FM job. Denis is now a "free agent" in Quebec.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7q-ncg3FAVE&feature=related

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  27. Shadow,

    I'm not concerned about the media narrative at the moment. The media's attention span is short - I care about the organization conundrums. Coderre was the big one. The bitter wife of an ex-leader and a former PLQ MNA voicing her opinions (in what I thought was a constructive tone, TBH) are not major issues.

    I haven't seen the media coverage of the Can150 yet. Nor do I care to. I've been watching the people actually there, and they're all giving thumbs up. I'll give you a better assessment tomorrow when the conference here happens.

    CanadianSense,

    Nah, Coutler wouldn't like that Iggy - that Iggy made sense. She'd hate him all the same, what with his constant praising of the UN and secular US values, ones she doesn't believe in.

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  28. CanadianSense,

    If you mean Nathalie LeProhon, she was going to be the candidate in Jeanne-Le-Ber, but she pulled out temporarily because of her job, but she's expected to come back once we narrow down to election time. She's still working the circuit in Montreal and Toronto. I know - my candidate met her not too long ago in T.O.

    And Denis is the candidate in his riding. So is Cauchon. I don't know who you're talking about.

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  29. Shadow

    I disagree with your characterization of Janine.

    Timing, the letter was published one year later. If it was a few days after her husband being tossed I would agree.

    She is not a wallflower and her resume speaks to her background on the "terrorism" file.

    Read her letter again and her concerns for the party infighting and disposable leaders culture.

    Read her comments about MI views and her warning about his books from her expertise.

    The same narrative

    1) Party organization discipline
    2) Toronto-Quebec battle

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  30. Volkov,

    I have linked the video of the power base of Denis.

    He has been muzzled in QP.

    In QP those who broke ranks may lose their speaking privileges as well.

    My point is the Liberals running their own leadership replacement for the next loss.

    Angelo Perischilli wrote about it regarding a meeting at a bar. He got attacked by many other pro liberals press.
    Will link letter when I return if I remember.

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  31. CanadianSense,

    That's the narrative of any party, even the Conservatives, who battle between Alberta and Toronto as well, and back in Mulroney's day, they were being pulled three ways to nowhere. National parties like the Liberals and the Conservatives are built on this sort of shaky foundation.

    As for the "disposable leader's culture" - come off it. Dion was done for. He knew it. She knew it. We all knew it. The coalition was his one last shot at the gold. If getting rid of him was what we had to do, I'm damn well glad we did it. Don't tell me you wouldn't do the same.

    Kreiber was bitter and excluded. I wouldn't blame her for lashing out. But she isn't some seer into the party. Don't forget her bias now.

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  32. CanadianSense,

    Don't like that Angelo Perischilli article - that was a crock and a half. No one is preparing anything, except maybe Cauchon. Even Rae's camp is quiet. And, well, does LeBlanc even have a camp?

    Coderre will never be leader, and he got what he deserved. And he didn't lose speaking privileges - he resigned from his critic post, and I don't think anyone's asked on either side if he wants it back.

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  33. Ann Coulter's primary concerns seem to be social issues, and there is no Canadian party that is strongly socially conservative.

    She'd emigrate.

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  34. Volkov,

    You are much younger than I am and have alot less history regarding the Liberals.

    I can't speak to Brian Mulroney or the PC party, never voted for them.

    Do you think John Chretien's move against John Turner with the famous letter was the not significant?

    I am very familiar with the history of the Liberal party and would ever discount Janine as the "wife" or bitter. That is an unfair comment about her long history ties with her party.

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  36. Volkov,

    I am not connected to any party, but you seem to believe you have your finger in every camp within the party.

    Can you remind us your official position within the Liberal Party?

    As a supporter of the Liberals why would you publicly admit to problems or divisions?

    I can criticize any party including the CPC. I can also back up my points with public information. Your post of no division is not supported by the numerous comments from the media.

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  37. Volkov this talking point just expired:

    "we wanted our candidates and MPs in our ridings and doing their jobs."

    From Don Martin's reporting over at the Full Comment NP blog:

    "a last-minute e-mail went out from party headquarters inviting current Liberal MPs, who had been discouraged from attending, to change their plans and rush to the conference."

    Also it appears the only policy to come out of day 1 is a 2% increase in the GST.

    Ouch.

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  38. Peter: Since the Greens are unlikely to have any effect on the next election I say we ignore them until they at least get a House seat ?

    Sorry, that was two steps ago.

    Mahatma Gandhi: “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

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  39. John:

    :Mahatma Gandhi: “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”"

    Gandhi was probably right. But at this point I would say it is between Ignore and Laugh.

    I just don't see them at the moment as anything other than gadflies.

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  40. Shadow - The Liberals want to raise taxes? Who ever would have expected such a thing?

    /sarcasm

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