Friday, March 19, 2010

Progressive Conservatives Maintain Lead in New Brunswick

On March 9, Corporate Research Associates released their results of a poll on the provincial voting intentions of New Brunswickers.The Progressive Conservatives have maintained their lead with 42%, but that is a drop of four points compared to CRA's November 2009 poll. However, with an MOE of 3.5, this might not be significant.

The Liberals have remained steady at 36%, the Hydro-Québec deal keeping them from a position of re-election.

The NDP has gained four points and is at 18%, a decent result for the party in New Brunswick.

The Greens remain steady at 4%.

Compared to CRA's February 2009 poll, we see that the Progressive Conservatives (+8 points) and the NDP (+5) have been the big winners over the last year. The Liberals have dropped a massive 14 points in that time span.

Only 34% of New Brunswickers are satisfied with the direction of the government, down 8 points from November.

Though his party is doing well, David Alward is the choice as best premier for only 27% of those polled, down two points. Shawn Graham, the current Liberal premier, is not far behind with 25%, down four. Roger Duguay, leader of the NDP, is up three points to 11%.

The results of the 2008 federal election are, interestingly, within the ballpark of current support levels. The Conservatives took 39% of the vote in New Brunswick in that election, only three points lower than the current PC support level. The Liberals took 32%, only four points lower. The federal NDP, however, does better with 22% compared to this poll's 18%. And the Greens, who took 6% federally in 2008, are about at the same level as the provincial Greens.

Taking into account the 3.5 MOE, provincial results seem to closely mirror federal results.

In other words, provincial politics in New Brunswick could be an indicator for the next federal election.

(Note, CRA has done polls for all Atlantic provinces. I will tackle each one at a time over the next few days. Also note that I've added a list of provincial links to the right. These links group all the posts about each province's politics, so that if you want to see all of my posts about New Brunswick politics, you can click on the New Brunswick link and all of them will be shown together.)


  1. Thank you for including 2008 Federal Election popular support.

    a)Do we have any Polls to show the breakdown in ridings or are this Poll a province wide snapshot?

    b)Does a relation exist with the voting pattern between Provincial Federal parties?

    In Ontario we had Blue Ontario with a Red Ottawa as the traditional voting pattern.

  2. "The 57th New Brunswick general election is expected to be held on September 27, 2010."

    2006 election Graham beat Lord 47.1% to 47.5% (29 to 26 seats). The NDP had only 5%, and had their 1 seat wiped out.

    And oddly enough.. in 03 Part of the liberal platform was "keeping the power utility NB Power as a public, crown corporation, and"

  3. While the results may not be far off from the 2008 federal election, I think that comparison kind of obscures why Graham's poll results are so poor, and where his party stands on policy.

    There's no real surprise the NDP (may) have been the primary beneficiary of his unpopularity in terms of poll numbers.


COMMENT MODERATION POLICY - Please be respectful when commenting. If choosing to remain anonymous, please sign your comment with some sort of pseudonym to avoid confusion. Please do not use any derogatory terms for fellow commenters, parties, or politicians. Inflammatory and overly partisan comments will not be posted. PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION ON TOPIC.