Monday, March 14, 2011

BQ drops in new projection, Tories two short of majority

With three new federal polls added to the mix, the projection has been updated. Though there has been very little change in the national numbers, a drop of support for the Bloc Québécois in Quebec has put the Tories only two seats short of a majority.

You can click on the links to the right to see the breakdown by riding.

Nationally, the Conservatives have gained 0.1 points, and now lead with 38.2%. More importantly, they have picked up a net one seat, and are now projected to win 153 seats if an election were held today.

The Liberals are unchanged at 27.7% support, but have picked up two seats and now projected to win 75.

The New Democrats are up 0.1 points to 15.6%, and are up one seat to 32. The Bloc Québécois has dropped 0.3 points to 9.6% nationally, and are down four seats to 48. The Greens are up 0.3 points to 7.7%, but are not projected to win any seats.

These are, obviously, good numbers for the Conservatives. Being at 153 seats would likely be as good as a majority, considering they could easily pick-up two seats in by-elections during their mandate. They've done it before.

We'll start in Quebec, where there has been the most movement in the past 12 days.

The Bloc has dropped 1.3 points in the province to 38.8%, and with the drop has come a loss of four seats. The Liberals are up 0.6 points to 21.9%, and have gained Ahuntsic and Brossard - La Prairie from the Bloc. The Conservatives are up more modestly, with a gain of 0.2 points to 19.4%, but coupled with the Bloc drop that is enough to put Montmagny - L'Islet - Kamouraska - Rivière-du-Loup and Roberval - Lac-Saint-Jean back in their column. The Liberals are now projected to win 15 seats while the Conservatives take 11. The New Democrats are down 0.1 points to 12.6%, but are still projected to win one seat. The Greens are up 0.7 points to 6.4%.

The other seat change has come in the North, where the New Democrats have taken back Western Arctic from the Conservatives. You'll notice that in this riding, as in a few others, the parties are tied. When there is a tie, the incumbent is always given the win.

There has been very little change in British Columbia. The Conservatives and Liberals are still projected to win 40.3% and 23.7% of the vote, and 22 and seven seats. The New Democrats are down 0.3 points to 22.9%, but are still projected to win seven seats. The Greens are up 0.4 points to 10.8%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives are up a full point to 62.4%, followed by the Liberals at 17.9% (-2.0). The New Democrats are down 0.6 points to 8.8%, while the Greens are up one point to 8.5%. They are challenging the NDP for the third spot in the province.

In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives are up 0.1 points to 51.4%. The New Democrats have taken second, holding at 21.1%. The Liberals are down 1.3 points to 19.9%, while the Greens are up 0.4 points to 6%. There is no change in the seat projection for these two provinces: 22 for the Conservatives, four for the NDP, and two for the Liberals.

There has been very little change in Ontario as well, with the Conservatives dropping 0.1 points to 41.1%. The Liberals are down 0.2 points to 34.4%, while the NDP is up 0.2 points to 15.5%. The Greens are unchanged at 7.8%, and the seat projections are also unchanged at 56 Conservative, 35 Liberal, and 15 New Democratic seats.

Finally, in Atlantic Canada the Conservatives have dropped 2.8 points to 36.2%, but are unchanged at 13 seats. The Liberals are down 0.6 points to 35.7%, while the NDP is up 0.6 points to 18.6%. The Liberals and NDP are still projected to win 15 and four seats, respectively. The Greens are up 0.3 points to 6.3%.

Unless the government pulls the plug, this week will be the calm before the storm. It seems unavoidable that the government will face a confidence vote next week, so we will either be going into an election or not within the next 11 days.

You'll notice that most ridings leave no share of the vote for the other parties. This is on purpose. I am only giving the minor parties and independents a share of the vote in ridings where Elections Canada or their respective websites have listed candidates as nominated or confirmed. Each minor party candidate will be given the same share of the vote as the party as a whole averaged in contested ridings in 2008, with independents being given 0.6% of the vote (the average independents managed in 2008). Independents who performed especially well in 2008 (i.e., James Ford) will be given special consideration.

Here are the individual riding projections, which will be permanently linked to in the right-hand column. Click to enlarge.