Monday, March 28, 2011

Conservatives widen gap in new projection

The latest projection puts the four federal parties at the same level of seats nationally as they were Friday, but regionally seats have swapped hands throughout the country. In the end, the Conservatives are now in a better position than they were on Friday morning.
The Conservatives have gained 0.2 points nationally and now lead with 38.4%. The Liberals, meanwhile, have dropped 0.4 points to 27%, widening the gap between the two parties to 11.4 points. That is exactly where the gap stood on election night in October 2008.

The New Democrats have gained 0.3 points and now stand at 16.4%, while the Bloc Québécois is down 0.1 points to 9.8% and the Greens are up 0.1 points to 7.2%.

The parties are unchanged at 152 seats for the Conservatives, 72 for the Liberals, 51 for the Bloc Québécois, and 33 for the New Democrats.
Aside from holding steady in Alberta and dropping a tiny bit in British Columbia, the Conservatives have made gains in every party of the country. Most significant is the gain in Atlantic Canada: 1.5 points to 38.9%. But the 0.4 and 0.5 point gains in Ontario and Quebec probably mean more, with the Tories now within 0.2 points of the Liberals in Quebec.

The Liberals lost 0.6 points each in the two westernmost provinces, and were down more than a point in Quebec. The New Democrats, on the other hand, are up big in BC and Quebec.

A lot of seats have changed hands. In Manitoba, Elmwood - Transcona has gone from the NDP to the Conservatives, who are now projected to win 23 seats in the two Prairie provinces. In Atlantic Canada, Moncton - Riverview - Dieppe has gone from the Liberals to the Conservatives, while the Tories have also picked up Montmagny - L'Islet - Kamouraska - Rivière-du-Loup from the Bloc Québécois. Gilles Duceppe has made up for that loss by taking Papineau from the Liberals.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have gained Kingston and the Islands from the Liberals, but have lost Sault Ste. Marie to the NDP and Brampton West, Brampton - Springdale, and Ajax - Pickering back to the Liberals. This results in 54 seats going Conservative in the province, compared to 36 going Liberal and 16 going NDP.

But those Toronto suburban seats are very likely to switch back over to the Conservatives, so the Tory gain in Kingston, Moncton, and Winnipeg become very important. However, no poll has yet been released that was taken since the campaign started, so expect things to change.

25 comments:

  1. Now Forum Research just put out a phone poll of 2,000 - Cons 41%, Libs 24% NDP 19%
    http://www.canada.com/news/Tory+support+stays+high+ethics+falling+flat+Poll/4514126/story.html

    seems like every poll out since the budget has the NDP at 19% - I suspect that Eric's projection is going have the Tory and NDP numbers take off in the next couple of days at the expense of the Liberals.

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  2. And wondering reporting on that one, too. No regional results, and when was the poll conducted? Who knows!

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  3. The poll is described as being the first "post-writ" phone poll of the campaign, so I assume it was done over the weekend. Forum did a number of polls on the Toronto mayoralty race and is run by Lorne Bozinoff who once upon a time ran Gallup Canada (back when it existed). I suggest you contact them adn see if you can get their regional data.

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  4. from Link: http://www.canada.com/news/Tory+support+stays+high+ethics+falling+flat+Poll/4514126/story.html

    "The Forum Research poll also breaks it down by seat count, suggesting that if the election were held today, the Tories would surge from 143 seats to 162 seats, the Liberals would drop 17 seats to 61, the Bloc would rise from 44 to 51, and the NDP would be whittled from 36 seats to 34. The poll, conducted over the weekend via telephone with a random sample of 2,095 voters, is within the range of approximately plus or minus 10 seats for each party."

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  5. Is anyone having any problems commenting? I've had one person say that they have had problems. If you are having problems, send me a note on Twitter or via email.

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  6. Eric problem with commenting solved.

    Just don't block "Google Friend Connect" and it's OK

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  7. William McDuff28 March, 2011 10:38

    Until the competiting candidates get into place, I think this is mostly academic. A star candidate can make any race more interesting. If Jian Ghomesi decided to run for the NDP in Toronto Centre (which I suspect he has no interest in, just an example), that would turn that race upside down.

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  8. William,

    Star candidates are taken into account in the projection model, but as you say we're still waiting for the full slate of candidates to be announced.

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  9. The Leger poll that indicated that only 17% believe Ignatieff on the coalition also say that

    "Ignatieff's challenge when it comes to issues of leadership were evident when his firm asked who would make the best leader of a coalition government involving Liberals, NDP and the Bloc Quebecois.

    Canadians narrowly picked NDP Leader Jack Layton at 27% over Ignatieff at 24%. Bourque said a significant number of those who identified themselves as Liberals were among those who preferred Layton to lead a coalition."

    Mr. Layton's health becomes more of an issue if he is actually running to be PM under coalition.

    Leger did not give the who would you vote for results.

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  10. How accurate were the Forum Research polls in the Toronto Mayoral race?

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  11. A week before the election, they predicted that Ford would win it and, at least in the he had a statistically significant lead. Certainty, they did a lot better than leger, Ipsos and Nanos, and were on par with Ekos.

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  12. William McDuff28 March, 2011 11:07

    The general will hold true, of course, but the specifics will iron out.

    I'm curious if May has a hope in Saanich–Gulf Islands, myself...

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  13. The worst part about the Leger poll was that only 32% of LIBERAL supporters believed him on the coalition issue (versus 35% who did not). Mind you, some of those Liberal supporters, presumably, wouldn't mind if Iggy were lying (since 2/3rds of Liberal supporters apparently support a Liberal/NDP/Bloc coalition - what the hell are they thinking?), so that may not be a bad thing for him in itself, but it explains why the Tories are pounding on this issue (as is the fact that it's political plutonium outside of Quebec).

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  14. Wow, Forum Research charges for access to their press releases? Further data, sure... but it kind of defeats the purpose of a press release.

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  15. While the interesting thing to me is how much traction and action Duceppe is getting, outside of Quebec, by hammering away on the 2004 letter.

    It seems his acttack has a certain resonance !!

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  16. "While the interesting thing to me is how much traction and action Duceppe is getting, outside of Quebec, by hammering away on the 2004 letter."

    Yeah, but if you hate the Tories is that a good thing? It just keeps the coalition issue alive (which helps the NDP and Bloc, encouraging vote splitting, and hurts the Liberals), without harming the Tories (they have a pretty compelling response to it, which even Duceppe admits, there was no coalition. Plus no one suspects the Tories might try to form a coalition with the Bloc and the NDP after the election).

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  17. Carl I agree but I'm wondering if Duceppe isn't trying to do something a little unexpected or "off the wall" if you like???

    Like shift the Bloc from what it currently appears to be towards a Quebec centric national or at least regional party ??

    "which even Duceppe admits, there was no coalition" in the face of the letter, no way. The letter is clear !! COALITION !!

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  18. Eric this is your projection you're going to do daily now with all the new polls ?

    Could you do everyone a big favour and list the names of the polls that were incorporated since the last projection ? With the headline numbers for the three main parties.

    Maybe just bullet points at the end of the post

    * Ipsos (Federal) CPC 43 etc etc
    * Probe (Manitoba)
    * Crop
    * Leger
    * Angus Reid

    That way we know if you've missed anything.

    Or if we missed anything we can go look ourselves.

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  19. "He thinks everything was created in six days, that
    Darwin was wrong," Duceppe continued.

    "These people believe, this minister believes that the
    Flintstones was a documentary."


    Here

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  20. Shadow, you can scroll down to the bottom of the page. All the polls highlighted in yellow are the new ones added to the model.

    I'll mention this in future updates to remind people.

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  21. Peter said: "The letter is clear !! COALITION !!"

    Only in your fevered imagination, Peter. From Giles Duceppe's little presentation yesterday: “He [Harper] did not talk about a coalition, that’s true,”.

    (for the quote see: http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Gilles+Duceppe+calls+Stephen+Harper+liar/4509580/story.html#ixzz1Hw0PSQDJ)

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  22. Carl

    "“I remember as if it was yesterday,” Duceppe said. “It was one of the most important meetings I have had concerning parliamentary democracy.”

    The letter, addressed to then-governor general Adrienne Clarkson, proposed that Harper be named prime minister in the event Martin lost a confidence vote.

    It suggested to Clarkson that she “consult the opposition leaders and consider all your options,” referring to the governor general’s rarely-used power to name a new prime minister, who has the confidence of the House of Commons, rather than calling fresh elections."

    That's called COALITION chum. Get used to it. A Formal agreement to approach the GG.

    'Sheesh !!

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  23. Peter:

    I realize that if I told you the sky was blue, you'd insist that that was a Tory lie, so I'm not sure why I bother, but here goes.

    You said, based on the letter, that the Tories/Bloc/NDP formed a coalition. Now, we all know that anonymous internet commentators are impeachably credible sources on these sorts of things, but somehow I doubt you were in the room with Harper, Duceppe or Layton when they were having their respective discussions. Giles Duceppe, on the other hand, (a) was in the room and (b) has no particular love for Stephen Harper. If he says there was no coalition, well, darn it, I'm kinda inclined to take his word over yours.

    Moreover, your claims would be somewhat more credible if you didn't just make them up. For example, the letter did not propose that Harper would be named prime minister in the event that Martin lost a confidence vote. Perhaps you haven't bothered to read it (which is somewhat embarassing because it consists of four sentences), but it simply says nothing of the sort. Or course, it's easy for you to prove me wrong on this, by pointing out where it says what you claim it says. But you won't.

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  24. Enjoy your delusion Carl

    Not worth trying to correct your programmed thinking.

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