With the fall of his government potentially days away, Stephen Harper will enter the election campaign with a clear advantage over his adversaries should Canadians be sent to the polls this spring. However, his long coveted majority government appears just out of reach.
You can read the rest of the article on The Globe and Mail website.
Unfortunately, the new Nanos poll came out too late for me to include it in the projection, but I will do a write-up on the poll soon. In the meantime, here are the details to today's projection update:
Nationally, since last Monday's updaye the Conservatives have gained 0.1 points, and now lead with 38.3%. They have dropped four seats, however, are now projected to win 149.
The Liberals are down 0.3 points to 27.4%, are are unchanged at 75 seats.
The New Democrats are up 0.2 points to 15.8%, and are also unchanged at 32 seats.
The Bloc Québécois is up 0.2 points to 9.8% nationally, and are up four seats to 52.
The Greens are down 0.1 points to 7.6%, are are still projected to win no seats.
All seat changes that have taken place were in Quebec and Ontario, so let's get to those right off the bat.
In Ontario, the Conservatives are up 0.3 points to 41.4%, while the Liberals are down 0.7 points to 33.7%. The NDP is up 0.3 points to 15.8%, while the Greens are up 0.1 points to 7.9%. The Liberals have actually gained, however, as they take back Ajax - Pickering and Brampton - Springdale from the Tories. The reason for this is the incumbency factor - the projection model isn't always linear. The Conservatives are now projected to win 54 seats, the Liberals 37, and the NDP 15.
The Bloc has gained 0.7 points in Quebec and now leads with 39.5%, well ahead of the Liberals at 21.4% (-0.5) and the Conservatives at 18.8% (-0.6). The NDP is up 0.9 points to 13.5%, and the Greens are down 0.6 points to 5.8%. The Bloc has re-gained Ahuntsic and Brossard - La Prairie from the Liberals and Montmagny - L'Islet - Kamouraska - Rivière-du-Loup and Roberval - Lac-Saint-Jean from the Conservatives. That puts the Bloc total at 52 seats, with the Liberals winning 13, the Conservatives nine, and the NDP one.
In British Columbia, the Conservatives are 1.2 points to 41.5%, followed by the Liberals at 24% (+0.3) and the NDP at 21.8% (-1.1). The Greens are down 0.3 points to 10.5%. Seat projections are unchanged at 22 for the Conservatives and seven apiece for the NDP and Liberals.
In Alberta, the Conservatives are unchanged at 62.4%. The Liberals are down 0.9 points to 17%, while the NDP is up 0.9 points to 9.7%. The Greens are down 0.2 points to 8.3%. The Tories are still projected to sweep all 28 seats in the province.
In the Prairies, the Conservatives are down 0.4 points to 51%, well ahead of the Liberals at 21.2% (+1.3) and the NDP at 20.4% (-0.7). The Greens are down 0.1 points to 5.9%. The Conservatives are projected to win 22 seats in these two provinces, with the NDP winning four and the Liberals winning two.
Finally, in Atlantic Canada the Conservatives have gained 0.7 points to and lead with 36.9%. The Liberals are down 0.3 points to 35.4%, while the NDP is down 0.2 points to 18.4%. The Greens are down 0.1 points to 6.2%. The Liberals are projected to win 15 seats in the region, with 13 going to the Tories and four to the NDP.
You can click on the below riding-level projections to enlarge them: