Tuesday, March 29, 2011

NDP on the rise in new projection

The campaign continues, and yesterday we were treated to three new polls. Two of them, those by Abacus Data and Forum Research, were added in full to the projection model. Harris-Decima, however, has not yet put the full details of their poll on their site, so for the time being I am using the media reports on Harris-Decima's findings at the national level, in Ontario, and in Quebec. I will likely add the other regional data for tomorrow's projection. Note, too, that all of these polls were conducted in part or completely following the dissolution of the House.

Yesterday seemed to be a relatively quiet day on the campaign trail, the Conservatives making a promise that will not be implemented until 2015-2016. While their plan to allow families with children to do income splitting is apparently significant in terms of cost, it really isn't significant until it is implemented. As the promise depends on the paying off of the deficit, it is really more of a pledge than a promise. Unless the Conservatives win a majority, in all likelihood they are not going to get the opportunity to go through with their plan before the next election.

Meanwhile, Michael Ignatieff was in Toronto to talk about Conservative "waste", while Jack Layton was in Saskatchewan. Considering that his party has now dropped to less than 20% in my projection in the Prairie provinces, it is a region of the country that needs a Layton boost.
This morning's projection shows that the Conservatives are continuing to widen the gap between themselves and the Liberals. It is now 0.5 points wider, and stands at 11.9 points. This is because the Conservatives have gained 0.2 points and now lead with 38.6%, while the Liberals are down 0.3 points to 26.7%. I can't remember the last time I had the Liberals at less than 27% in the projection.

The New Democrats, meanwhile, have another day of gains. They are now at 16.7%, well ahead of the Bloc Québécois at 9.8% (unchanged) and the Greens at 7% (down 0.2).
This all adds up to a seat gain for the New Democrats (now at 34) and a seat loss for the Conservatives (now at 151). But both go through the Liberals (still at 72).

In British Columbia, where there has been little change in the vote projection, the New Democrats have taken Vancouver - Kingsway back from the Liberals. This is an NDP seat, and Don Davies is now back in front.

In New Brunswick, the Conservatives have lost Moncton - Riverview - Dieppe back to Liberal MP Brian Murphy. This should come as no surprise, as the Conservatives have dropped 0.8 points in Atlantic Canada. That's the biggest drop by any party in any region today, but it was the NDP who benefitted with a gain of 0.7 points in the region.

In the all important Ontario battleground, both the Conservatives and Liberals have lost a little at the expense of the NDP, while in Quebec the Conservatives have taken second place from the Liberals, who have lost 0.5 points. The NDP is now at 14.7% in the province, one of the highest, if not THE highest, levels of support I have ever had the party at in Quebec.

Full summaries of the Abacus and Forum polls will follow later this morning. In the meantime, the details of the new polls added to the projection can be found at the very bottom of this page (new polls highlighted in yellow).


  1. "In New Brunswick, the Conservatives have lost Moncton - Riverview - Dieppe back to Liberal MP Brian Murphy."

    Have they, now? What happens if the CPC's GOTV performs better than average in that seat? What happens if the breeze shifts again tomorrow - or if it shifts another thirty times in the next thirty-odd days?

    Your blog does a service, but it's just this sort of hyperspeculation-as-fact and microanalytical excess that has me sympathizing with Allan Gregg's "too many polls, too many assumptions" tirades.

  2. Hey Eric are you keeping up with some of these new star candidate announcements ? And surprise Liberal MP resignations ?

    Fmr federal cabinet minister Valcourt in Madawaska – Restigouche, Health minister Sandy Lee in NWT, long time MLA Bill Currie in Cardigan.

    Maybe after the nomination deadline has closed you should double check your stars list.

  3. Eric, what is the rationale of the table of Canadian Projection details at the bottom of the 308 homepage? The information appears to be ordered randomly. Would it not be helpful to have these arranged by date???

  4. On an extremely tiny and nitpicky cosmetic note, you're using an old logo for the NDP - the updates are somewhat minor, but they're using a new design and colour scheme now. You can find the new one at ndp.ca/logos

  5. Brian,

    Obviously, I am speaking in terms of the projection. The Conservatives have lost Moncton - Riverview - Dieppe in the projection today.


    I'm keeping an eye on it, but yes the major update will take place once candidatures are cemented. I have added Valcourt to the mix, however.


    There is no rationale, they are ordered randomly. I replace old ones with the new ones. Ordering them by date would be more convenient, but because of how the spreadsheet is organized it isn't possible.


    Thanks, will make the change for tomorrow.

  6. Thank you for the response, Eric.
    Ordering the 308 Projection details by date would be extremely helpful. This would reveal trend-lines which are arguably the most revealing statistic of all in this enterprise.

  7. Anyone else horribly dissapointed in the Liberal post-secondary tuition idea ?

    It replaces the textbook and education tax credit and is only applicable to full time students over a maximum of four years.

    Meanwhile, in the real world, there are people with disabilities, health issues, and work commitments that don't allow them to take a full course load !

    There's older workers enancing their skills by taking a few courses at night.

    And there's students who do co-op, terms abroad, and travel who won't finish a degree in four years.

    The two tax credits he's destroying works for all those people ! Replaced with a one size fits all plan that only works for some students.

    I'm really dissapointed in this. It was a Liberal platform idea I thought I might actually like.

  8. Eric, I know you're speaking in terms of projections. But drilling down to specific seats as "won" or "lost" even in a data-driven scenario more than thirty-days out seems over the top, no?

    Anyway, I'll stop carping. While I might think it's a waste of your talents, other readers clearly disagree. And it's a free market (LOL).

  9. hosertohoosier29 March, 2011 22:45

    "Meanwhile, in the real world, there are people with disabilities, health issues, and work commitments that don't allow them to take a full course load !"

    I'm also horribly disappointed with Ignatieff's education passport, but probably for the precise opposite of the reason you suggest. The biggest cause of the drop in 4-year completion rates (despite powerful grade inflation) is increased access to university. If you're extending an already-wasteful tuition subsidy beyond 4-years, you may as well call it a lollygagger passport.


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